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Overview: We’ll call the East the “Region of Overachievers”; a slew of over-performers relative to preseason expectations. It starts with top seed Michigan who was picked a lowly sixth in the Big Ten preseason media poll. It doesn’t stop there as no. 2 seed Alabama was picked fifth in the SEC (like Michigan, the Tide instead […]
Overview: The West Region is loaded with decorated coaches, from mismatch mastermind Lon Kruger to pack line pioneer Tony Bennett. However, their trophy cases and sterling resumes won’t help them solve what appears to be an unstoppable force in Gonzaga. All eyes are on Mark Few and the Zags who enter the tournament as a […]
Despite concerns about the pandemic, everyone’s second-favorite postseason college basketball tournament soldiers on in 2021, offering a consolation soiree to frustrated programs who missed out on the biggest of dances. Like the NCAA Tournament, all NIT games will be held in one geographic region as games will be played north of Dallas in Frisco and […]
Overview: The South Region features plenty of NCAA Tournament pedigree with six teams (Ohio State, Texas Tech, North Carolina, Villanova, Florida, and Wisconsin) having made at least one Final Four appearance over the last decade. Not included on that list is Baylor, who is an incredible 50-6 straight up over the last two seasons. It’s […]
Overview: Illinois nabbed the Midwest Region’s top seed and is one of the top betting choices to win the National Championship. The region features no “blue blood” programs nor perennial contenders. The most storied team is 11th seed Syracuse who was one of the last teams selected and finds itself an underdog to San Diego […]
After a year off due to COVID, the SEC Tournament returns to Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, marking the fifth time in the last six events that it’s been held there. Kentucky has found plenty of success here, winning three straight at Bridgestone from 2015-17 bit this is obviously is a different Wildcat team. Barring a […]
As is tradition, the Big 12 Tournament will take place in Kansas City, though the venue is now officially known as the T-Mobile Center, not the Sprint Center, thanks to a telecommunications mega-merger. On a relative basis to both past Big 12 Tournaments and to other conference draws, this event lacks drama: the top seven […]
Now that March has officially arrived, the postseason offers an exciting new angle on which to wager: conference tournament futures! These are a special kind of niche, but that’s where we at Three Man Weave thrive (or at least, that’s what we tell ourselves). For today, let’s take a look at several teams who ended […]
The Ohio Valley Conference is one of the most top-heavy in the country. Its good teams are really good (hello, Belmont), and its bad teams are really, really bad. Five teams in the OVC rank in the top 176 in KenPom, and Austin Peay nearly cracks the top 200 at #204. On the flip side, a […]
The postseason is on the horizon – indeed, the Horizon League itself begins tournament play this Thursday! That means teams want to be playing their best ball of the year, so I decided to take a look at four Big Dance-bound squads that appear to be peaking at the right time. Iowa Hawkeyes Flying in […]
As the season moves into its final stage it’s easy to overlook how certain teams have fared recently when only looking at overall ATS records or current analytical standings. Drake, for instance, still boasts a sterling 17-4 mark against the number, but the Dogs are just 4-4 ATS over their last eight games. Oddsmakers have […]
Less than a month away from the Ides of March, the regular season is now on the final turn. Though shorter in duration relative to years past, the COVID constraints have taken its toll on coaches and players alike. The light at the end of the tunnel is now clear. So, how will teams react […]
It’s mid-February and for most college basketball fans and recreational bettors, the season is about to heat up. To me, while not in full-on take-a-knee mode, I’m scaling things back with one eye on the upcoming MLB campaign. Part of that reasoning is largely because I’ve had one of my more profitable seasons. Maybe it’s […]
This peculiar 2020-21 college basketball season has brought many schedule oddities, but perhaps most paramount among these has been the huge volume of back-to-back rematches in conference play. Figuring out how to handicap these immediate rematches has been a key challenge – maybe the key challenge – of finding an edge this season, and several […]
New Mexico State was the heavy favorite to win the WAC this preseason, garnering the most attention from the media poll, coaches’ poll, and of course the Three Man Weave. The Aggies are the 10th oldest team in America, featuring a core rotation of seven upperclassmen, two of which are “down transfers” from Utah, UNLV, […]
This has unquestionably been a unique season in the college basketball world. From handicapping hundreds of back-to-backs, to the ups and downs of seemingly random COVID-related lineup absences, to the exasperation of game postponements after beating a line by multiple points – 2020-21 has certainly had its share of frustrations. But this strange slate is […]
Memphis has been by far one of the most frustrating teams to bet on this season. Once again Penny Hardaway has an embarrassment of riches at his disposal but has thus far failed to produce anything meaningful with it. There may not be a more athletic team, on paper, than the Memphis Tigers and yet […]
The foolish few who chose this life — the life of a bettor — know the feeling. Like steady rainfall on a dreary day, the slow accumulation of wear and tear begins to take its toll on a bettor’s conscience. Long gone is the bright-eyed-and-bushy-tailed giddiness that comes with the season’s commencement in November. Up […]
It’s no GameStop (GME), but throughout the season NCAA futures market can offer major money-making opportunities to the clever sports bettor. Obviously, Baylor and Gonzaga appear to be on a collision course to meet in the National Championship, but that does not mean other squads are devoid of value – if nothing else, for possible […]
Florida State has been making a ton of noise the past two weeks with five straight ACC wins and a perfect 5-0 against the number. The Seminoles now sit at 13th in KenPom’s holy rankings, up from a year-low of 35th following their December 29 loss to Clemson. FSU’s hot streak is not an anomaly – […]
Ask any bettor the first thing that comes to their mind in regards to the Super Bowl and the consensus answer is undoubtedly “prop bets.” Born back in the mid-80’s when Las Vegas oddsmakers Art Manteris hung 20-1 on the now famous Refrigerator Perry touchdown prop, they have grown into a behemoth with so many […]
College basketball teams change throughout the season. Dynamics within the locker room, roles among the players – it’s often hard to concretely identify why, but the squads that play well to start the year don’t always maintain that upward trajectory, and vice versa. The easiest change to discern is in a team’s rotation and starting […]
Save for a few teams beset by COVID-related postponements, all NBA clubs have reached the fifteen-game mark over the last week. As bettors and bookmakers get a better idea of the state of the league, let’s pause to look at a few teams who dealt with a ton of turnover heading into the year. The Champs are (still) […]
Three-point shooting is the most frustrating and least predictable game-to-game metric for college basketball bettors. Sides and totals are so often determined by which team is hot and which team is not, leading us at Three Man Weave to offer millions of dollars to whoever can crack the algorithm that reveals how 18-21 year olds […]
Betting is all about striking when the iron’s hot. Anyone can pick out Utah State and Alabama; two wrecking balls that have laid waste to any team in their path. Here, we mine a little deeper, searching for undetected value in conference play. Join us as we venture off the beaten path for another set […]
Despite a series of postponements and a plethora of COVID-19-related issues, in a seeming blink of an eye, we are almost 20 percent of the way through the season. With the games coming at a furious pace, bettors should now be getting a better idea of what the various teams look like, as bigger sample sizes of data […]
Due to COVID adjustments to many league schedules, the early week slates don’t offer much heft. Many leagues have shifted to a Friday/Saturday or Saturday/Sunday cadence, but fortunately, we still have enough quality games on the calendar to uncover some value. Let’s check in on two games for tonight where I see some value: Duke […]
Finally, after an embarrassing blowout loss at home against the Lakers, the Houston Rockets organization waved the white flag, surrendering to James Harden’s offseason trade demand. In the end, a four-team transaction sent Harden to from an eccentric super team in Brooklyn, while Houston amassed a ton of draft capital and former All-Star Victor Oladipo. Quality youngsters Caris LeVert and Jarrett […]
Bruce Pearl is in his seventh season at Auburn which marks the longest tenured DI head coaching job of his career. Pearl’s 2019 squad made a surprising run to the Final Four but the program had been gaining steam well before then. After two rough seasons spent cleaning up the mess Tony Barbee left, Pearl […]
This expansion era of college hoops paved the way for four program promotions this summer: Dixie State, Tarleton State, UC San Diego, and Bellarmine. Welcome to the big show, boys. Last year, we witnessed Merrimack rip the NEC to shreds en route to a regular season conference title in its inaugural DI season. The element […]
As the NBA season stumbles on, one constant has been to expect the unexpected. The shortened offseason, combined with a plethora of injuries and COVID-19-related issues, as well as a condensed schedule, has muddied up a lot of early play. Much basketball to this point has been largely defined by its inconsistency, as even title contenders struggle to deal with the new normal. Let’s […]
We made it — barely — to 2021. I’d love to forget most of what took place but from a betting perspective, it was one of the better years I’ve ever had thanks to a late fall/early winter surge. Today I wanted to talk about one of the aspects that helped make 2021 successful and […]
Getting ahead of the market on tempo trends is vital to finding edges in the totals market. That applies on both a macro and a micro level; individual teams can offer big opportunities, especially when specific squads migrate outside of coach/program norms. Let’s take a look at five teams playing at vastly different tempos compared […]
Let’s take a look at some of college basketball’s top against the spread teams and break down why they’ve been so efficient at covering numbers! Drake (11-0 ATS, +12.5 cover margin) Drake has been THE darling of the early college basketball season, racing out to the most wins in the country and best mark against […]
Conference play is in full swing, folks! As we turn the page to a new chapter in the college hoops season, we spotlight a few trends to keep an eye on across the Power 6. ACC Hurricanes and Cardinals on the mend – Despite sporting a goose egg in the win column, Miami is quietly boasting […]
With a busy and hectic holiday schedule behind us, some teams are gifted a rare chance to catch their breath over this week, with teams either playing two or three games over the next five nights. It’s not much, but given how brutal these schedules have been and will get, any rest days will be mission critical to all of […]
Three weeks ago, the NCAA passed a blanket waiver that gave all Division I-to-Division I transfers immediate eligibility to play this season. And coupled with the pandemic, no one will lose a year of eligibility. That all-encompassing policy led to a flurry of new additions throughout the college basketball landscape. But who of those additions […]
The theory is actually quite simple; since 2002, Wild Card teams with a higher Strength of Schedule (using Sagarin’s Ratings) went a remarkable 47-25 straight up and 48-22-2 against the spread (68.5% winners) regardless of point spread and location. Even more amazing is that teams with a SOS advantage of 10 or better went 29-7 […]
College basketball transfers are the norm these days and these five have already made a significant impact on their respective new homes. Justin Smith, F, Arkansas Razorbacks The Hogs are chock full of transfers this season, and each one has brought something positive to the table. Justin Smith, an Indiana import, might not be the […]
In the sea of hypothetical hands raised, three eager beavers stand out among the college basketball crowd: Carm Maciariello, Joe Gallo and Mo Williams. These head honchos lead the only three college basketball programs (Siena, Merrimack and Alabama State), outside of the Ivy and Patriot Leagues, that are still sitting idle as the dawn of 2021 approaches. While many teams have 10 or more […]
With the first week of the season in the books, NBA bettors should take stock of an exciting, at times surprising, start to the year. In doing so, we can hope to find value by assessing where both overreactions and under-reactions may come into play as teams adjust to the new NBA normal. Fade: Atlanta Hawks To be clear, […]
The time between Christmas and New Year’s is often a strange lull in the college basketball schedule. It usually features power conference teams getting one last tune-up before conference play begins in earnest as the calendar turns, and smaller schools are all too happy to cash in on the “paycheck games” that result. In this […]
Despite the late and unprecedented start to the NBA season, Christmas Day remains a major event for the league, with a series of quality matchups running throughout the holiday. Let’s take a look at a couple of these games and see where bettors might find some value. New Orleans Pelicans at Miami Heat -4.5 O/U […]
It’s Christmas Eve and there’s a rare pause in college hoop’s unrelenting schedule. Every team will cherish this brief moment to exhale, but that’s about the only common denominator shared across all 357 Division I squads. Many teams are riding high, looking to parlay recent momentum into the new year. Others find themselves soul searching, […]
Welcome to Christmas week, all! It’s a thin Monday slate today, so let’s take a quick look at several teams who have shot up or down the rankings of one Mr. Ken Pomeroy. Fallers Fairfield (-6.51 change in Adjusted Efficiency Margin since 11/25, worst in the country) The Stags – or as we at 3MW […]
Let’s take a look at five freshmen who are making a positive impact on their team’s power rating and ATS results. Johni Broome, F, Morehead State Broome is making Morehead fans forget all about Tyzhaun Claude, an up-and-coming center in his own right and the presumed starter in the middle for the Eagles in the preseason. Claude’s early injury issues […]
So much for the lull of Finals Week… In the wake of last night’s 35-game schedule, another hefty slate awaits us this evening. There’s no shortage of Hump Day hoops to dissect, but we homed in on a tasty twofer – one side and one total – for your consideration: Mercer +4 (#667) at Georgia […]
We’re a couple weeks into the college basketball season. Even with COVID cancellations, nearly every team has played at least one game with a few playing as many as eight. One of the more popular betting angles early in the season is first-year head coaches. Some provide an immediate boost while others see the writing […]
Early in the season, outlier performances can be major sources of skewed ratings in college hoops, with examples on both the positive and negative ends of the spectrum. One of the biggest variables contributing to those outliers is shooting luck, as the smallish sample early in the season leads to certain teams being beneficiaries or […]
I’ve been analyzing and sharing my thoughts on first-year college basketball head coaches for nearly a decade. This year is obviously unique in that there’s supposed to be a season but how it will look is anyone’s guess. College football has been messy to say the least with a steady stream of cancellations due to […]
With the NFL back in full swing, Week 2 presents a particularly interesting challenge for books and bettors alike. Each team has played a game, and the sample size is far too small to glean much from, yet there is always the temptation to overreact to how the new season started. Are the Ravens going 16-0? Are Tom […]
While the entire basketball world outside of the Denver Nuggets’ locker room was waiting on the much-anticipated Battle of Los Angeles to decide who would represent the Western Conference in this season’s NBA Finals, it was not meant to be. The Clippers collapsed under the weight of the pressure and the motivated effort of the Nuggets, who won […]
Every week during the college football season I like analyze some of the early point spread moves by the betting markets. It’s a great game of cat and mouse as oddsmakers post openers and are quick to adjust to what some bettors see as soft lines. By watching as well as partaking, I’m able to […]
Much like everything else in today’s current climate, college football has already endured multiple postponements and cancellations. There have been a very small slate of games played but there’s enough to warrant a review. BYU absolutely crushed a Navy team who had not been tackling in practices due to COVID concerns. I think while Navy […]
After a largely successful EPL restart that saw Liverpool Football Club finally crowned as champions following a 30-year drought. Norwich, Bournemouth and Watford were relegated, while West Bromwich Albion, Fulham, and finally, Leeds United, make its return to the EPL. Let’s take a look at a couple of futures that may present some value, as well as a play for […]
We all have our own opinions regarding COVID — I admit, I think it’s pretty preposterous trying to keep 19 and 20 year olds in check on a college campus, bubble or no bubble. Remember, the starting quarterback may lock himself in a closet but it’s the third stringer sneaking out to the bars that […]
After an upset loss to Houston in Game 1, the Lakers have appeared to steady the ship over the last two games, fending off an at-times spirited Rockets team to claim victories in the last two games. Now, a critical Game 4 is set for Thursday night, as the Lakers look to take control of this second […]
Following a pair of Game 7’s in the first round of the Western Conference playoffs, all four second-round matchups are finally in full swing. Let’s take a look at the two Saturday matchups. The Boston Celtics take on the Toronto Raptors in Game 4 of their series, followed by the underdog Denver Nuggets playing Game […]
While the Eastern Conference playoffs have already moved into the second round, bettors will be treated to two fantastic Game 7 matchups in the last two Western Conference matchups. Tonight, the Utah Jazz take on the Denver Nuggets, hoping to avoid being the latest team to lose a series after being up 3-1. Tomorrow, Chris Paul […]
Eastern Conference contenders Boston and Toronto wasted no time setting up this much-anticipated second-round matchup. Both the Celtics and Raptors swept their first round opponents and will meet for Game 1 on Thursday evening. Let’s take a look at the series price and the opening lines for Game 1, and see if there’s some value to be […]
The struggles of the top-seeded Los Angeles Lakers and Milwaukee Bucks has been a major storyline through the NBA restart. It reached fever pitch after both of these title favorites lost their opening games in the first round of the NBA playoffs. The Lakers looked sluggish against a hot Portland Trail Blazers team, while the […]
With favorites Boston and Toronto both taking their Game 1 matchups against Philadelphia and Brooklyn, respectively, let’s cast our attention on the totals for Game 2, how the lines have adjusted, and what we might see when it comes to scoring in these two Wednesday encounters. Philadelphia 76ers vs. Boston Celtics -4.5 O/U 214.5 Game […]
We’ve all heard the saying, “timing is everything.” But with regards to sports betting, it should read, “timing is money.” What you bet — side, total, etc. — is obviously important but when a bet is made can, over time, have a huge impact on a bettor’s bottom line. We’ve previously discussed the importance of […]
Portland Trail Blazers -6.5 vs. Memphis Grizzlies O/U 231 With the NBA seeding round all but in the books, the basketball world turns its attention to the NBA’s first ever playoff play-in game, as the Portland Trailblazers take on the Memphis Grizzlies. Despite a chaotic close to the seeding round, in which the Phoenix Suns and […]
With over a week of action now in the books, bettors and books alike are trying to adapt to the way that games are being played in the seeding round of the NBA restart. Let’s take a look at how things seem to be playing out, and how they are impacting NBA action from a betting perspective. […]
We’re nearing the quarter pole of the 60-game MLB season and it’s been anything but a smooth ride. Multiple teams have been impacted by COVID outbreaks, 7-inning doubleheaders have been implemented and may become commonplace moving forward, and with the playoffs expanded, everyone — for now — is technically live to earn a berth. Let’s […]
NBA basketball’s long-awaited return is in full swing, with cards of five to seven games everyday from now until August 13. Fouls and free throw attempts are way up, as are both scoring and pace. However, after a Friday slate that saw games go 6-0 to the OVER, the books have managed to adjust. Since that bloodbath, games are 10-8 to the […]
The NHL gets its restart underway on Saturday and, thanks to a quirky format, bettors will be treated to eight best-of-five play-in game series right from the get go. The 16 teams are competing for a spot in the main playoff draw to follow, that will run along more traditional lines, with conference seeding and best-of-seven series. It’s a […]
After a layoff that stretched over four months, the NBA finally returns to meaningful action on Thursday, with a two-game slate, before settling into a schedule that will see six or seven games played each day. If the much-discussed NBA bubble works out, the seeding game portion of the NBA restart will be filled with opportunities for […]
After last Thursday’s opening day doubleheader and Friday’s full slate, outside of there being no fans, bettors were treated to a little familiarity. And the overall play looked a lot like the first few days of a normal 162-game season. But the good times wouldn’t last long as MLB hit its first of many potholes […]
BettorIQ continues with its 2020 MLB betting previews. We will be breaking down all 30 teams from a betting perspective leading up to the start of the season. St. Louis Cardinals 2019 Record: 91-71 2019 Profits: +8.6 2020 Win Total: 31.5 2020 Odds to Win NL Central: +250 2020 Odds to Win NL Pennant: +1300 […]
BettorIQ continues with its 2020 MLB betting previews. We will be breaking down all 30 teams from a betting perspective leading up to the start of the season. Cincinnati Reds 2019 Record: 75-87 2019 Profits: -11.7 units 2020 Win Total: 32 2020 Odds to Win NL Central: +220 2020 Odds to Win NL Pennant: +900 […]
BettorIQ continues with its 2020 MLB betting previews. We will be breaking down all 30 teams from a betting perspective leading up to the start of the season. Toronto Blue Jays 2019 Record: 67-95 2019 Profits: -10.4 units 2020 Win Total: 28 2020 Odds to Win AL East: +2000 2020 Odds to Win AL Pennant: […]
BettorIQ continues with its 2020 MLB betting previews. We will be breaking down all 30 teams from a betting perspective leading up to the start of the season. Tampa Bay Rays 2019 Record: 96-66 2019 Profits: +2.3 units 2020 Win Total: 34 2020 Odds to Win AL East: +260 2020 Odds to Win AL Pennant: […]
BettorIQ continues with its 2020 MLB betting previews. We will be breaking down all 30 teams from a betting perspective leading up to the start of the season. Pittsburgh Pirates 2019 Record: 69-93 2019 Profits: -14.5 units 2020 Win Total: 25.5 2020 Odds to Win NL Central: +4000 2020 Odds to Win AL Pennant: +8500 […]
BettorIQ continues with its 2020 MLB betting previews. We will be breaking down all 30 teams from a betting perspective leading up to the start of the season. Boston Red Sox 2019 Record: 84-78 2019 Profits: -20.8 units 2020 Win Total: 30 2020 Odds to Win AL East: +1255 2020 Odds to Win AL Pennant: […]
BettorIQ continues with its 2020 MLB betting previews. We will be breaking down all 30 teams from a betting perspective leading up to the start of the season. Miami Marlins 2019 Record: 57-105 2019 Profits: -14.7 units 2020 Win Total: 24.5 2020 Odds to Win NL East: +8500 2020 Odds to Win NL Pennant: +15000 […]
BettorIQ continues with its 2020 MLB betting previews. We will be breaking down all 30 teams from a betting perspective leading up to the start of the season. New York Mets 2019 Record: 86-76 2019 Profits: -3.0 units 2020 Win Total: 31.5 2020 Odds to Win NL East: +295 2020 Odds to Win NL […]
BettorIQ continues with its 2020 MLB betting previews. We will be breaking down all 30 teams from a betting perspective leading up to the start of the season. Philadelphia Phillies 2019 Record: 81-81 2019 Profits: -6.7 units 2020 Win Total: 31.5 2020 Odds to Win NL East: +390 2020 Odds to Win NL Pennant: +1350 […]
BettorIQ continues with its 2020 MLB betting previews. We will be breaking down all 30 teams from a betting perspective leading up to the start of the season. Washington Nationals 2019 Record: 93-69 2019 Profits: +2.9 units 2020 Win Total: 32.5 2020 Odds to Win NL East: +250 2020 Odds to Win NL Pennant: +800 […]
BettorIQ continues with its 2020 MLB betting previews. We will be breaking down all 30 teams from a betting perspective leading up to the start of the season. New York Yankees 2019 Record: 103-59 2019 Profits: +11.7 units 2020 Win Total: 37.5 (based on 60-game season) 2020 Odds to Win AL East: -350 2020 Odds […]
Today we look at three college football head coaches in the ACC and what it will take — or the change in direction needed — in order to get their respective programs over the hump in 2020. Previous installments of this series include the Big Ten, Pac-12, and Big 12. ACC Pittsburgh – Pat Narduzzi […]
BettorIQ continues with its 2020 MLB betting previews. We will be breaking down all 30 teams from a betting perspective leading up to the start of the season. San Francisco Giants 2019 Record: 77-85 2019 Profits: +9.9 units 2020 Win Total: 69 (based on 162-game season) 2020 Odds to Win NL West: +15000 2020 Odds […]
Major League Baseball just announced that there is a tentative plan for a 60-game regular season starting late July. There are still aspects that need to be ironed out given the tenuous state of the league’s relationship with the Players Association. For bettors, based on what we know, there’s a lot to digest. Let’s take […]
Today we look at three college football head coaches in the Pac-12 and what it will take — or the change in direction needed — in order to get their respective programs over the hump in 2020. Previous installments of this series include the Big Ten and Big 12. Pac-12 UCLA – Chip Kelly Kelly […]
Today we look at three college football head coaches in the Big 12 and what it will take — or the change in direction needed — in order to get their respective programs over the hump in 2020. Click here for the Big Ten. Big 12 Texas – Tom Herman Herman is one weird cat. […]
Compared to most years, this summer has been bare of meaningful college football previews. Between COVID-19, social issues, and the uncertainty about this upcoming season, it feels as if writers of several publications and websites are taking a wait-and-see approach. But bettors have no choice but to forge ahead and prepare accordingly. As much as […]
BettorIQ continues with its 2020 MLB betting previews. We will be breaking down all 30 teams from a betting perspective leading up to the start of the season. Los Angeles Angels 2019 Record: 72-90 2019 Profits: -14.8 units 2020 Win Total: 85.5 (based on 162-game season) 2020 Odds to Win AL West: +700 2020 Odds […]
BettorIQ continues with its 2020 MLB betting previews. Throughout the spring, we will be breaking down all 30 teams from a betting perspective. Houston Astros 2019 Record: 107-55 2019 Profits: +5.4 units 2020 Win Total: 95 (based on 162-game season) 2020 Odds to Win AL West: -170 2020 Odds to Win AL Pennant: +225 2020 […]
The fourth UFC event since the Coronavirus pandemic began is scheduled for Saturday. Headlining the event will be Tyron Woodley and Gilbert Burns in what should be a highly entertaining Welterweight bout. The card features a total of 11 bouts. There is a nice mix of veterans and up-and-comers on this card. Plenty of highly touted […]
BettorIQ continues with its 2020 MLB betting previews. Throughout the spring, we will be breaking down all 30 teams from a betting perspective. Kansas City Royals 2019 Record: 59-103 2019 Profits: -22.0 units 2020 Win Total: 64.5 (based on a 162-game season) 2020 Odds to Win AL Central: +6000 2020 Odds to Win AL Pennant: […]
BettorIQ continues with its 2020 MLB betting previews. Throughout the spring, we will be breaking down all 30 teams from a betting perspective. Arizona Diamondbacks 2019 Record: 85-77 2019 Profits: +10.2 units 2020 Win Total: 83 (based on 162-game season) 2020 Odds to Win NL West: +1200 2020 Odds to Win NL Pennant: +3000 2020 […]
BettorIQ continues with its 2020 MLB betting previews. Over the course of the next few months, we will be breaking down all 30 teams from a betting perspective. Oakland Athletics 2019 Record: 97-65 2019 Profits: +17.6 units 2020 Win Total: 91.5 (based on 162-game season) 2020 Odds to Win AL West: +275 2020 Odds to […]
The most cursed event in UFC history, Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Tony Ferguson, was originally scheduled for UFC 249. After postponing the fight on four occasions, it appeared we were finally going to see the matchup happen. Then a global pandemic hit and shut down the entire planet down and once again ended the dreams of […]
BettorIQ continues with its 2020 MLB betting previews. Over the course of the next few months, we will be breaking down all 30 teams from a betting perspective. Chicago White Sox 2019 Record: 72-89 2019 Profits: +10.5 units 2020 Win Total: 84 (based on 162-game season) 2020 Odds to Win AL Central: +340 2020 Odds […]
BettorIQ continues with its 2020 MLB betting previews. Over the course of the next few months, we will be breaking down all 30 teams from a betting perspective. Chicago Cubs 2019 Record: 84-78 2019 Profits: -9.4 units 2020 Win Total: 86 (based on 162-game season) 2020 Odds to Win NL Central: +230 2020 Odds to […]
BettorIQ continues with its 2020 MLB betting previews. Over the course of the next few months, we will be breaking down all 30 teams from a betting perspective. San Diego Padres 2019 Record: 70-92 2019 Profits: -20.8 units 2020 Win Total: 82.5 (based on 162-game season) 2020 Odds to Win NL West: +1425 2020 Odds […]
One of the most overused phrases in sports betting is “bad beat.” Thanks to the growth of Gambling Twitter, you can’t go a day without at least one bettor claiming they were wronged by a fluky ending. It’s gotten so bad that ESPN’s Scott Van Pelt has a weekly segment dedicated specifically to “bad beats.” […]
It’s been over a month since we could last bet on sporting event that wasn’t taking place in Belarus or on a PlayStation. Since then, much of our time has been dedicated to handicapping when sports will return and what it will look like when it does. Below is an update of what some of […]
BettorIQ continues with its 2020 MLB betting previews. Over the course of the next few months, we will be breaking down all 30 teams from a betting perspective. Texas Rangers 2019 Record: 78-84 2019 Profits: +8.3 units 2020 Win Total: 79 (based on 162-game season) 2020 Odds to Win AL West: +2650 2020 Odds to […]
If we were to put betting lines on the upcoming college football season, the originally projected start date of August 29 would be an underdog and an abbreviated campaign and/or later start date would at best be even money. The reality is other than a multi-day event like Coachella, there aren’t many activities more precarious […]
BettorIQ continues with its 2020 MLB betting previews. Over the course of the next few months, we will be breaking down all 30 teams from a betting perspective. Minnesota Twins 2019 Record: 101-61 2019 Profits: +17.9 units 2020 Win Total: 92.5 (based on 162-game season) 2020 Odds to Win AL Central: -165 2020 Odds to […]
Today I conclude my college football head coaching changes report card. Click for Part I and Part II. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors – Todd Graham C Let’s be honest. Graham wins games. He is 95-61 in his career. In my mind, he didn’t deserve to be fired from Arizona State but he was always looking for […]
Live, or in-game sports betting has seen tremendous growth and popularity over the last few years. In a society where consumers demand products faster than ever, sportsbooks have gladly accommodated those desires by offering the ability to bet on sports during games. Unfortunately, the platform for live betting varies greatly from sportsbook to sportsbook. Some […]
BettorIQ continues with its 2020 MLB betting previews. Over the course of the next few months, we will be breaking down all 30 teams from a betting perspective. Los Angeles Dodgers 2019 Record: 106-56 2019 Profits: +6.5 units 2020 Win Total: 101.5 (based on 162-game season) 2020 Odds to Win NL West: -900 2020 Odds […]
BettorIQ continues with its 2020 MLB betting previews. Over the course of the next few months, we will be breaking down all 30 teams from a betting perspective. Detroit Tigers 2019 Record: 47-114 2019 Profits: -41.2 units 2020 Win Total: 57 2020 Odds to Win AL Central: +25000 2020 Odds to Win AL Pennant: +46500 […]
Today I continue my college football head coaching changes report card. For Part I, click here. Washington State Cougars – Nick Rolovich B I’m a big fan of Rolovich and the hire makes terrific sense. If he can keep scoring then they have a chance to remain a perennial bowl team. He also made a […]
BettorIQ continues with its 2020 MLB betting previews. Over the course of the next few months, we will be breaking down all 30 teams from a betting perspective. Seattle Mariners 2019 Record: 68-94 2019 Profits: -16.0 units 2020 Win Total: 67.5 (based on 162-game season) 2020 Odds to Win AL West: +25000 2020 Odds to […]
BettorIQ continues with its 2020 MLB betting previews. Over the course of the next few months, we will be breaking down all 30 teams from a betting perspective. Colorado Rockies 2019 Record: 71-91 2019 Profits: -11.2 units 2020 Win Total: 73 (based on 162-game season) 2020 Odds to Win NL West: +4800 2020 Odds to […]
BettorIQ continues with its 2020 MLB betting previews. Over the course of the next few months, we will be breaking down all 30 teams from a betting perspective. Atlanta Braves 2019 Record: 97-65 2019 Profits: +13.6 units 2020 Win Total: 90.5 (based on 162-game season) 2020 Odds to Win NL East: +155 2020 Odds to […]
Circa Sportsbook recently released their NFL season win totals for the 2020 campaign. That gives bettors an opportunity to objectively evaluate the strength of schedule for all 32 NFL teams. Strength of schedule is often miscalculated by the media, as most tend to utilize last season’s win-loss records. Those records don’t take into account the variance in outcomes (point differentials that […]
As of now, it appears that Major League Baseball will play in 2020 albeit using an abbreviated schedule. Memorial Day is being discussed as a target date which offers the chance to play as many as 125 regular season games and a postseason that runs into late October. Should the start date be later, which […]
After analyzing Philip Rivers, Teddy Bridgewater, and Nick Foles, we close out our NFL quarterback free agent coverage with Tampa Bay’s acquisition of Tom Brady. The long awaited news of where Tom Brady would play football this coming season was finalized last Friday as the future Hall of Famer officially signed to play for Tampa […]
MLB has implemented a handful of rule changes for the upcoming season. They include batter minimums for relief pitchers, roster limits, and injury lists. Let’s take a look at how we should approach them from a betting perspective. Three-Batter Minimum – All pitchers must face at least three batters or pitch until the inning comes […]
For college football bettors, the offseason is where the real work begins. The training grounds of February through August are restless times for me. The studying of new coaches, the constant shifting of transfer portals, and the expanding universe of assistants is never ending. This offseason has featured some of the wildest head coaching hires […]
This is the third of a four-part series of articles detailing the immediate handicapping impact of the NFL quarterback moves during the first week of free agency. To read the article on Philip Rivers, click here. For the article on Teddy Bridgewater, click here. The 2013 NFL season seems like ages ago. Chip Kelly was a head coach at the […]
Today continues BettorIQ’s 2020 MLB betting previews. Over the course of the next few months, we will be breaking down all 30 teams from a betting perspective. Cleveland Indians 2019 Record: 93-69 2019 Profits: -4.1 units 2020 Win Total: 86 (based on 162-game season) 2020 Odds to Win AL Central: +345 2020 Odds to Win […]
Regular season wins offer an opportunity to invest in teams before the season, and those investments sometimes have tremendous ROIs. College football regular season win totals are a completely different animal than the NFL. For one, the amount of roster and coaching turnover year-to-year is much greater. Plus there are far more teams, which can […]
This is the second of a four-part series of articles detailing the immediate handicapping impact of the NFL quarterback moves during the first week of free agency. To read the first article on Philip Rivers, click here. After agreeing to a three-year deal for $20 million per season, Teddy Bridgewater will be the starting quarterback in Carolina. Bridgewater’s story is […]
It would not be controversial to say that the most important job in all of sports is the NFL quarterback. Given that, when there is this much movement in such a short period of time at the position, it is wise for us sports bettors to understand potential positive and negative impacts as quickly as possible. By my count, there […]
Today marks the first of BettorIQ’s 2020 MLB betting previews. Over the course of the next few months, we will be breaking down all 30 teams from a betting perspective. Baltimore Orioles 2019 Record: 54-108 2019 Profits: -18.5 units 2020 Win Total: 56.5 (based on 162-game season) 2020 Odds to Win AL East: +35000 2020 […]
With Tom Brady officially announcing that he will not be returning to the Patriots on Tuesday, my first thought was Joe Montana in a Chiefs uniform and Michael Jordan in a Wizards jersey. Similar to those Hall of Famers, seeing Brady playing for a different team will just feel…strange. However, my very next thought was what this means for the AFC […]
The NFL has consistently demonstrated the ability to take over the sports calendar year-round. Whether it be their combine in February, the draft in April, training camps in the spring and summer, or what we experienced yesterday on their first day of the league calendar, as they officially opened up the free agency and trade floodgates. NFL, you certainly have our attention! I will […]
I think we can all agree, the coronavirus sucks. And its unlikely to stop sucking anytime soon. For full-time sports bettors, there aren’t many times throughout the calendar year where there isn’t something to bet on and/or prepare to bet on in the coming weeks. Football season cranks up in August, overlaps with basketball, and […]
One of the few remaining sporting events left, UFC Fight Night 170 will go as scheduled in Brazil on Saturday. While there will be no fans present due to the recent coronavirus outbreak, this is still a stacked card from top to bottom that features a lot of exciting fighters. Lightweight: Francisco Trinaldo (24-7) -170 […]
We’re just a few days away from Selection Sunday and that means it is time for the bigger conference tournaments to begin. Move over Atlantic Sun and Summit, it is time for the big boys to get started (minus the Ivy League). Here are a few teams from some big conferences that provide bettors with […]
The Atlantic-10 Conference Tournament begins tonight at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn. All 14 teams in the league will participate, with the top four seeds earning double byes and four teams squaring off in the opening round. Dayton is the odds-on favorite at close to -200. The Flyers are likely a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, unless they stub their toe in their first A-10 Tournament […]
The Big East Tournament, one of college basketball’s premier events, takes over Madison Square Garden starting tonight, with a pair of play-in games. This year’s conference is crowded at the top, with Creighton, Villanova, and Seton Hall all earning a share of the regular season crown at 13-5 in conference play. Let’s take a look […]
To explain the depth of the Big Ten conference this season, there is no need to look any further than the fact that the number one seed (Wisconsin) is the ninth most probable team to win the end of season tournament (sitting at around 10-1, depending on the sportsbook). A conference that will likely place 10 […]
The unique aspect of this year’s Conference-USA tournament is that there are two courts in the Ford Center at the Star in Frisco, Texas. First round games will begin only 30 minutes apart so two games will be going on at once. All four first round games and through the quarterfinals will use this format […]
Fort Worth is the backdrop for the 2020 American Athletic Conference Tournament. Under former head coach Mike Cronin, Cincinnati took home the last two titles. This year’s AAC tournament has arguably more at stake than any other conference. The Houston Cougars appear to be the only team that has solidified a Field of 68 berth. […]
For the eighth straight year, the PAC-12 Tournament heads to Las Vegas where 11 games will take place over four days. The top four seeds all received a first round bye and will await the winners of the four opening round games. Last year broke a string of five straight tournaments where the no. 1 […]
After playing at the Scottrade Center in St. Louis in 2019, the SEC Tournament returns to Nashville. Kentucky had its streak of four tournament titles snapped last season as fifth seed Auburn won four games in four days to take home the title. All 14 teams participate with two play-in games on Wednesday. The top […]
All 11 Big Sky teams will do battle at this year’s conference tournament in Boise, Idaho starting Wednesday. The bottom six teams play in the first round while the top five seeds have a first round bye. The Big Sky was much stronger this season with as many as eight teams vying for a winning […]
For the 11th straight year, the Big 12 Tournament will take place at the Sprint Center in Kansas City starting Wednesday. There are two play-in games featuring the bottom four seeds. Favorite – Kansas not only rolled to a 17-1 conference record and the top seed but the Jayhawks are a lock to earn a […]
The opening round of the ACC Tournament gets underway on Tuesday in Greensboro, N.C. with two play-in games. Fourteen teams will participate (Georgia Tech was banned from the postseason) with the top four seeds (Florida State, Duke, Virginia, and Louisville) earning byes through the quarterfinals. Over the last three years, only once has the no. […]
This weekend’s UFC 248 features a solid betting card including two title fights. Let’s take a look at some of the key bouts including the main event, Israel Adesanya vs. Yoel Romero. Neil Magny (21-7) vs. Li Jingliang (17-5) -180 Neil Magny has logged a lot of fights in a short period of time in […]
The Sun Belt Conference altered its tournament format last year giving the one and two seeds a bye to the semifinals. The early rounds will be played at the home arena of the highest seed. The seven through ten seeds begin play in round one with the winners moving on to the next set of […]
The top-eight teams in the Summit League head to Sioux Falls for this season’s conference tournament, beginning on Thursday. The last-place team Western Illinois missed out, as the league goes with a straight-ahead format beginning with a quarter-final round. The league has some depth to it this year as five squads posted winning records in conference […]
The Missouri Valley Conference Tournament starts on Thursday at St. Louis’ Enterprise Center. All 10 teams will participate with the top five receiving a first round bye. The MVC is a notoriously slow paced and low scoring league which is often magnified in the postseason. Of last year’s nine conference tournament games, the average game […]
The Colonial Athletic Association Conference Tournament begins on Saturday, March 7 at the Entertainment & Sports Arena in Washington, D.C. All 10 teams in the league will participate, with the top six seeds earning first round byes. Drexel vs. UNC Wilmington along with Elon vs. James Madison will get things started in the opening round. The top seed and tourney favorite is Hofstra, sitting at odds of +190 to win […]
March is finally here and the madness is not far behind. Some conference tournaments start as early as this week while Selection Sunday is less than two weeks away. It’s been a volatile college basketball season. This year, more than any in recent memory, as many as 25 teams have a legitimate chance to cut […]
The Ohio Valley Conference Tournament starts Wednesday and will be held at a true neutral site, Evansville, Ind. Only the top eight teams will participate and the format heavily favors the top two seeds who need to win only two games to advance to the NCAA Tournament. Down the final weekend of the regular season, […]
The elite of the West Coast Conference will make their annual pilgrimage to Las Vegas to see who will get a guaranteed spot in the NCAA Tournament beginning on Thursday. Both Gonzaga and BYU have done more than enough to ensure dancing in March, with the ‘Zags likely to get a #1 seed in one of the […]
The Mountain West Tournament gets underway on Wednesday at Las Vegas’ Thomas & Mack Center. All 11 teams will participate with the top five seeds earning first round byes. Top seed San Diego State is assured of an NCAA Tournament at-large berth should the Aztecs lose. Second seed Utah State is technically on the bubble […]
With Detroit ineligible for postseason play, the Horizon League Tournament will feature nine teams. The format heavily favors the top two teams in the league with Wright State and Northern Kentucky earning first and second round byes. UW-Green Bay has a first round bye while the remaining six teams play on campus in the first […]
Another weekend means another UFC betting card. This weekend features UFC Fight Night 169. The card isn’t full of household names but it does feature a couple of up and comers as well as a title fight. Felicia Spencer is perhaps on-deck to battle Amanda Nunes so her co-main event fight is a chance to […]
The MLB offseason was supposed to be about gawking at just how good the Dodgers and Yankees look on paper. Or for those into conspiracies, did MLB switch the balls back to “normal” during the postseason? Instead, it was dominated by the Houston Astros garbage can banging themselves to two World Series appearances in three […]
2019 will be remembered as the Year of the Dinger. It was also the Year of the Favorite as four teams won 100+ games and -200 or more chalk posted a ridiculous ROI of nearly 9%. What will also be remembered is how historically bad the bottom feeders were with four teams failing to top […]
With spring training officially underway, it’s time to start prepping for the upcoming MLB season. The futures market is starting to mature with regular season win totals available at most sportsbooks. Every season, a handful of teams are pegged to perform far differently than they did the season prior. Based on this year’s win totals, […]
Saturday’s busy college basketball card features a series of important conference matchups, as teams across the nation move into the tail end of their regular season schedules. Let’s take a look at a couple of big games, and what we might expect. Kansas Jayhawks at Baylor Bears This may just be the biggest regular season college basketball […]
College basketball’s regular season is winding down and tournament talk has hogged the headlines. Heading into this weekend’s betting action, we have eight questions that need answering. Can someone in the WCC beat Gonzaga? Thirteen league games and only twice has a WCC team managed to keep the score within double-digits against Gonzaga. BYU and […]
Given Chicago’s reputation for desperately needing money in order to slow down a freight train of mounting debt, it’s surprising it took this long for sports betting to get the OK. Gov. J.B. Pritzker recently announced that casinos will be able to accept sports wagers in time for March Madness. If you’ve driven on I-94 […]
After last night’s win at Marquette, Creighton moved to 10-4 in Big East play and climbed to 14th in KenPom’s ratings after reaching as low as 66th earlier this season. Head coach Greg McDermott has done wonderful things (66% winning pct.) since taking over the program in 2010. And even with the step up in […]
With conference play turning down the home stretch, the stakes are being raised in college basketball action across the country. From teams looking to cement a top seed, to those resting precariously on the bubble, the dynamics created make for exciting times for bettors. However, this stage of the season can also be wildly unpredictable. Are teams who […]
The last few weeks of college basketball’s regular season can be tough to navigate for bettors. The biggest issue is the large amount of data that’s being baked into every point spread and total. Maybe a team offered value in early January because of a scheduling quirk or a key player became eligible mid-season and […]
With All-Star festivities having concluded in Chicago, the league has a three-day break before getting into the second half on Thursday. Now is a good time to take a look at some remaining futures, and take stock of what we have seen so far, so as to determine if there’s value to be had in any […]
Conference-USA is at it again. I wrote an article last year explaining the innovative late season scheduling the conference was experimenting with. Unfortunately, the second year of C-USA’s Bonus Play is very likely to be the last considering the amount of criticism it’s received. The goal was to provide bubble teams with resume-boosting opportunities, but […]
Maryland at Michigan State Despite the fact that the Spartans have had a disappointing season so far, this game between #9 Maryland and unranked Michigan State is the biggest matchup in college basketball this weekend. The stakes are high for Tom Izzo’s under-performing group. Although the Spartans remain an NCAA tournament team, Michigan State could use a top-level win add to its […]
This weekend’s UFC card may not be chock full of big name fighters but that doesn’t mean we won’t see some excellent fights. The main event is a key battle in the light heavyweight division as the winner may be next in line to take on Jon Jones. Other bouts include a number of fighters […]
Mark Dantonio proved that you didn’t need top 10 recruiting classes or a high powered offense to be a perennial top 10 program. Under his watch, Michigan State put together a six-year record of 65-16 from 2010-15; a run most programs, including their rivals down the road, would die for. And even after falling flat […]
Wednesday’s college basketball card features plenty of quality games, but none are bigger than the Big 12 clash between #3 Kansas and #14 West Virginia. The game takes place in Morgantown and tips off at 7 pm ET. This is the second meeting between the two teams, following a January 4th encounter at Kansas, which the Jayhawks won 60-53, thanks […]
February can be a tough nut to crack for college basketball bettors. The lines are tight, the market is mature, and there aren’t many angles that aren’t accounted for. So when a key player goes down with a late season injury, it’s on everyone’s radar. Iowa State’s best player, Tyrese Haliburton, broke his wrist last […]
Just ahead of pitchers and catchers reporting to MLB Spring Training, the valuable PECOTA projections have been released. These numbers can be a helpful for bettors to get a feel for where the market is going to stand out of the gates. Also, by getting a little deeper into the numbers, there may be some value to be found […]
With the NBA heading into its six-day All-Star break, most teams have two games left before some much-needed rest. Let’s take a look at a couple of teams, and why bettors should consider playing on one and fading the other. Play: Boston Celtics The Celtics are playing arguably their best basketball of the season heading into the break. The team has won […]
In case you missed it, there were a few football games last weekend. Yes, after a short-lived run in 2001, the XFL returned to provide football fans (and bettors) something to do for the next three months. Here’s an excellent breakdown of pretty much everything you need to know about the XFL, specifically the rules […]
With the trade deadline behind us, it is important for bettors to get a feel for the moves that have been made, and how they may impact the success of the teams taking on or losing new players. As well, it’s key to consider what the individual transactions suggest about the trajectory of a given team, as […]
I was recently walking through a casino and saw a common sight. Two very successful gamblers I was friendly with were looking for a stake, a loan, or to just borrow enough money to allow them to get back into the game. I’ve gone bust three separate times in my life which led to a […]
March Madness is less than a month away. Nearly every NCAA Tournament we witness a mid-major team or two grab the headlines by pulling off multiple upsets. What non-Power 5 teams are capable of capturing America’s hearts this year while busting some brackets in the process? Let’s take a look. Vermont Catamounts (America East) Quietly, […]
One of the more intriguing midweek matchups in NCAAB action is an important Big East clash between Villanova and Butler at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. Let’s take a look at these two teams, how they have fared so far, and what we might expect tonight. Butler is listed as a 2.5-point home favorite for this game, which is somewhat […]
We’re only a few days removed from another Super Bowl but sportsbooks have been quick to post odds for next year. Below is a quick breakdown of Super Bowl LV’s odds courtesy of Las Vegas’ Westgate SuperBook. Kansas City +500 – Obligatory that the champs were installed as the favorite. And outside of the Super […]
It’s February and conference play is in full swing with the postseason on the horizon. There are plenty of intriguing situations, with some teams vying for a regular season championship and others merely trying to build a resume to get into the NCAA tournament. Here’s a look at what’s taken place so far as well […]
Due to the incredibly top-heavy nature of both the NBA’s Eastern and Western Conferences, there is very little intrigue when it comes to playoff spots, despite the fact that teams have well over thirty games each left on their schedules. Out west, barring any epic collapses, seven of the eight seeds are pretty well wrapped up. The Grizzlies hold […]
Three years ago I was betting college basketball blind. I was merely guessing which way the market was going to move. With a few teams it was fairly simple, but if I’m being honest I got more wrong than right. Eric Waz finally convinced me that there was value in tracking the way each team […]
No NHL team has been more confusing this season than the league’s flagship franchise, the Toronto Maple Leafs. Despite famously not having won a Stanley Cup since 1967, the Leafs came into the season as the favorite to win it all. Toronto’s preseason odds of +650 were the lowest available, followed by Tampa Bay at +800. When you consider that Tampa Bay had perhaps […]
Wednesday night features two ranked Big 12 teams on the road in hostile environments. West Virginia takes on Texas Tech in Lubbock, while the top-ranked Baylor Bears travel to Ames to take on Iowa State. Let’s take a look at these two key conference battles, and what we might expect in action tonight. West Virginia […]
One of the biggest questions facing a sports bettor is when to start fading a team that has been playing at a very high level. As the wins pile up, the lines start to adjust, and eventually, there will be a correction. Determining when that time will come can lead to serious value for a bettor […]
We’re about two weeks away from pitchers and catchers reporting to their respective spring training facilities and two months from opening day but MLB bettors are already prepping for the upcoming 2020 season. This offseason was actually fairly busy from a stadium perspective. The Texas Rangers moved just down the street to the brand new […]
We’ve all heard the saying, “You don’t need to be faster than the bear, just faster than your buddy.” How about, “You don’t need to be good to cover point spreads, just better than where you reside in the eyes of oddsmakers and bettors.” I admit, I made that last one up but the concept […]
Tomorrow, the seventh-annual Big 12/SEC Challenge will feature ten games between the two major conferences. These crossover events can help provide bettors with needed context for both later conference play, but also for the postseason. While the sample size is obviously small, bettors who take in these games can get a better idea of the strength of a conference, and […]
Another Saturday means another UFC event. This weekend, it’s UFC on ESPN+24: Blades vs Dos Santos. While it isn’t a main event, it still features plenty of action, even on the preliminary card. From up-and-comers to aged and experienced, grapplers to wrestlers, this card features all different kinds of different fighting styles for all MMA […]
Now that Super Bowl LIV’s point spread and total have been established, it’s time for bettors to turn their attention to the time honored tradition of prop bets. Every year, the list of prop bet grows, specifically those not related to the actual play on the field. From the over/under on the length of the […]
Tonight, the moment so many NBA fans and bettors have been anticipating since the season began, will finally come to pass. Generational talent and 2019 top-overall draft pick Zion Williamson will make his NBA debut at home against the San Antonio Spurs. Let’s take a look at New Orleans and Zion, and what we may expect when Williamson begins […]
Given the amount of volume bet on the Super Bowl, it’s in a sportsbook’s best interest to generate even action on both sides. That’s rarely if ever achieved however as sportsbooks tend to have a rooting interest for a particular outcome. It’s looking abundantly clear that the under in Super Bowl LIV will be the […]
College basketball has been tough on the eyes this season. With the 3-point line moved back, lack of superstar talent, referees “letting ’em play“, coaches of top-tier programs saying this, and efficiency being way down you end up with results like this, this, and, yes, even this. Another common theme has been the musical chairs played […]
As has become tradition, the NBA features games from early in the afternoon until the late hours of the night on Martin Luther King Jr. Day. All told, 28 of the league’s 30 teams will suit up for what has become one of the biggest dates on the NBA calendar. It is fitting then, that the biggest game […]
And then there were two. The matchup for Super Bowl LVI is set as the San Francisco 49ers take on the Kansas City Chiefs on February 2 in Miami. Both teams had a fairly easy go of it in their respective conference championships with double-digit victories. The offenses were especially potent as the Chiefs fell […]
Despite the massive 27-point gap between runaway league-leaders Liverpool and fifth-placed Manchester United, this remains one of the biggest games on the English soccer calendar. Liverpool look to have the league title wrapped up, and despite manager Jurgen Klopp’s insistence that the team will not get ahead of itself, a convincing victory against rival Manchester United would feel like something of a […]
On Monday, the BettorIQ Podcast ranked the top five sportsbooks in Las Vegas. Included in the discussion was the changing of the town’s sports betting landscape. In the past, bettors could wander around the various sportsbooks and secure the “best of the line” due to varying opinions. Like -3 or +3.5 on an NFL game? […]
With conference play in full swing, the quality matchups are coming fast and furious at college basketball bettors. Tonight, we are treated to a big early-season ACC matchup between defending national champions Virginia and ninth-ranked Florida State. These two teams have gone in opposite directions following preseason expectations. The Cavaliers have dropped out of the top […]
Following a lengthy absence due to a shoulder injury, Kyrie Irving made his return to the Brooklyn Nets’ lineup on Sunday in the team’s 108-86 blowout win against the Atlanta Hawks. In a mere 19 minutes, Irving reminded everyone of his supreme offensive talent. He scored 21 points on 10-of-11 shooting, for a career-high shooting […]
Assuming you’ve recovered from whatever the hell this was, there’s a college football game to bet on tonight. Yes, the National Championship is finally here with the Clemson Tigers squaring off against the LSU Tigers in New Orleans. Amazingly, the betting line has been up since December 28 and after an initial rush of back […]
After a week off for domestic cup competitions, English Premier League action is back in full force this weekend. While Liverpool are running away with the league title, there is no shortage of storylines. How jam-packed is the table behind the top three of Liverpool, Leicester, and Manchester City? Ninth-placed Crystal Palace is on 28 points for […]
Looking for a challenge the back-half of the college basketball season? Try handicapping the ACC. Most conferences by now are defined by a few haves, some have nots, and handful of teams that could go either way. The ACC can best be summed up by Duke, Louisville, Florida State, Virginia and 11 (!) teams that […]
With conference play in full swing, let’s take a look at a couple of upcoming matchups. In the Big 12, Kansas plays its first conference road game at Iowa State tonight. Tomorrow, a battle between ranked Pac-12 teams, Oregon and Arizona, should be the highlight of the betting card. Kansas at Iowa State +5 O/U […]
College basketball bettors are witnessing a rare occurrence of an elite-level program playing at a very non-elite level. North Carolina has made the NCAA Tournament in all but one of Roy Williams’ 16 seasons in Chapel Hill. A “down” season for the Tar Heels is winning 25 games and getting bounced in the second round […]
Entering tonight’s play, the Atlanta Hawks have the worst record in the NBA. At 8-29, there’s nothing particularly fluky about the team’s results so far. Atlanta’s Expected Win-Loss record is 7-30, and its net rating of -9.4 is the worst in the league. Let’s take a look at the Hawks’ season and why it may be time to buy low […]
Last week, we discussed the strength of schedule betting angle for the NFL’s Wild Card Round. With Houston, Tennessee, and Seattle all covering, the trend’s record improved to 48-22-2 ATS dating back to 2002. As for the Divisional Round, there isn’t nearly as strong of a long term profile that we are aware of but […]
Now that the holidays are over, college basketball’s conference play is in full swing. Let’s preview some of the key matchups for Saturday and Sunday. Auburn at Mississippi State – Bruce Pearl would be the first to tell you his undefeated squad is in for some difficult times in 2020. The Tigers have had it […]
It’s finally time for some NFL Playoff action! The action starts on Saturday as Buffalo heads to Houston. The second game features Tennessee at New England while the two NFC games will be played on Sunday as Minnesota heads down to New Orleans and Seattle treks east to take on Philadelphia. Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans […]
The end of the busy festive period of English Premier League soccer reaches its zenith on New Year’s Day with a huge nine-day card that runs from early in the morning through to the late afternoon. Each of the eighteen teams involved will be playing their third game in seven days. Handicapping these games in advance can be tricky, as relying […]
With well over a third of the NBA season gone by, bettors are getting more and more data upon which to build projections and picks. As we enter 2020, let’s take a look at a few surprises and disappointments from the season so far, and whether the New Year will bring about a change. The Hornets Are What […]
The theory is actually quite simple; since 2002, teams with a higher Strength of Schedule (using Sagarin’s Ratings) went a remarkable 44-24 straight up and 45-21-2 against the spread (68% winners) regardless of point spread and location. Even more amazing is that teams with a SOS advantage of 10 or better went 27-6 SU, 26-5-2 […]
It would be fair to say that I am a huge fan of the decision to include all 353 Division I Men’s basketball teams in the betting rotation. Currently, it is difficult to find many places that will take big limits on these games, but that situation will surely improve in the years to come. […]
The NBA has made Christmas Day its own in recent seasons, and NBA bettors will be treated to a five-game marathon again this year. Let’s take a look at a few of these marquee matchups and what we might expect. Boston Celtics at Toronto Raptors The Christmas Day card opens at the home of the defending champion Toronto Raptors, who […]
NFL Week 17 is always a fascinating handicap with playoff spots up for grabs, teams jockeying for seeding and home field advantage, and others playing for no other reason other than they are required to. Below we give an early week primer on every game and its implications. Tennessee at Houston – Even with last […]
On Saturday afternoon, college basketball bettors will be treated to an intriguing pair of non-conference matchups. At noon, the no. 2 Kansas Jayhawks visit no. 18 Villanova in Philadelphia. Following that game, no. 5 Ohio State faces off against no. 6 Kentucky in Las Vegas. Let’s take a look at these two huge encounters, and what we might expect […]
The NBA season heads into its last weekend before the Christmas holiday run, when an empty card on Christmas Eve followed by only five games on the NBA’s trademark Christmas Day marathon will create an unbalanced week. Let’s take a look at two teams and the rest of their week, before preparations for the holiday schedule begin in earnest. […]
‘Tis the season for college football pre-bowl game shenanigans. Coaches coming and going, suspensions, players sitting, and teams not giving a shit are just some of the many things bettors must consider before placing a wager. The good news is BettorIQ has you covered. Below is a list of pertinent articles that we’ve coming across […]
Throughout the week I make countless college football wagers. Shortly after openers are posted I look to take advantage of lines that I’m confident won’t be around very long. Tuesday and Wednesday’s bets are predicated more on research from last week’s box scores and articles. And as Saturday nears, I’ll place a few more bets […]
Starting next week, college basketball essentially grinds to a halt with only a handful of games during the holidays. But over the next week, there are some key games that should have a postseason-type feel to them. Let’s take a look at some of the more intriguing matchups and what bettors should key in on. […]
With the NHL season only a couple weeks from the halfway mark, the year has been marked by both surprises and disappointments. In the East, a stuttering Maple Leafs team and a confounding Tampa Bay club are still searching for themselves. In the West, upstart Arizona is flirting with the top-seed, and Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers are on pace to comfortably hit their […]
Thursday features a light NBA card, with only four games on the docket, but NBA bettors will be treated to one of the league’s best rivalries, as Atlantic Division foes Philadelphia and Boston face off on the Celtics’ home floor. The teams are currently tied for top spot in the Atlantic, with the Celtics sitting at 17-6, and the […]
Fight fans are in for a treat this weekend as UFC 245 takes place at Las Vegas’ T-Mobile Arena. This is one of the most stacked fight cards in UFC history from top to bottom, and that includes prelims. Kamaru Usman, Colby Covington, Max Holloway, Alexander Volkanovski, Amanda Nunes, Germaine de Randamie, Jose Aldo and […]
This article will focus on some mid-major conferences that get a positive rating with their group average. My model only takes this current season into account and is more heavily weighted toward recent results, while KenPom’s model is based not only on the entire season’s data, but on data from prior years as well. For […]
This summer was a rarity in Sacramento, in that it was filled with optimism. The Kings began the 2018-19 season with a projected win total of 25.5 games, the second-lowest future on last year’s board. Sacramento blew that number out of the water, covering the over on January 30, in a win that took the team to a […]
Strength of schedule has long been a go-to college football bowl game handicapping tool. For a number of years, if you simply played on the team with the tougher SOS, you often came out ahead. But nowadays, betting into a simplistic angle like that blindly probably isn’t the sharpest of ideas. Factors like strength of […]
Now that we have the first month of data in the books, I would like to evaluate my model against Ken Pomeroy’s. My model only takes this current season into account and is more heavily weighted toward recent results, while KenPom’s model is based not only on the entire season’s data, but on data from […]
College football bowl season can be a unique handicap. With the exception of the playoffs, motivation or lack thereof can have a big impact on the outcome. Then there is the issue of head coaches taking new jobs — some leaving prior to the bowl, some sticking around. You also have head coaches who will […]
Although Manchester City are a ways off the top of the table, trailing leaders Liverpool by 11 points through 15 games, and Manchester United are off to a stuttering start, this remains one of the biggest game’s on the English soccer calendar. Let’s take a look at the two teams and try to get an […]
For me the biggest story is the totals. During the first month of 2018, the average totals were 68.1/144.1 (first half/game). For the entire season of 2018-19 the average was 67/142.1. After the first month of 2019 the average is significantly lower at 65.7/138.8. To be certain, I am unconvinced that the rule change has […]
The Power 5 was less predictable than most would have guessed with Alabama losing to LSU, the PAC-12 having an actual powerhouse in Utah, the ACC falling at such a rapid pace, and the Big Ten being the most competitive it has been in years. We have a lot to review so let’s dive in. […]
With just four games remaining for each team in the NFL season, we are starting to see the playoff picture take shape. Only one team has officially clinched a playoff spot heading into this week (New Orleans). Six teams have been officially eliminated (Cincinnati, Miami, Atlanta, Arizona, Detroit, New York Giants).The rest are still fighting […]
The sample size isn’t big but there’s been enough basketball played to warrant some analysis on various first-year head coaches. Let’s revisit the power conference hires and how they and their teams have fared thus far. Alabama – Nate Oats The main observation I’ve gather from Oats is that he’s no doubt committed — at […]
After the stop-start schedule created by the Thanksgiving weekend, normal service has resumed in the NBA. Let’s take a look at the Portland Trailblazers, whose recent signing of Carmelo Anthony has become one of the league’s biggest stories. Can last year’s Western Conference Finalists begin the process of salvaging their season? Portland Trail Blazers (8-13 SU, 9-11-1 ATS) […]
On a scale of one to what the hell were you thinking, betting on the professional sports organization that happens to employ you is not the smartest of ideas. Even more insanely stupid is doing so in a public venue like, say, a Las Vegas sportsbook. That’s what went down back in early November as […]
Monday’s NCAA card is fairly light, but on Tuesday college basketball bettors will be treated to two fantastic matchups featuring some of the nation’s best teams. Let’s take a look at these two games and how the four teams have fared so far. Michigan Wolverines at Louisville Cardinals This game features arguably the two hottest teams in […]
Happy holidays! Another regular season college football season comes to a close and we learned as much as any other year that I can remember. We will reflect on each conference this week with a quick winners and losers run down starting with the Group of Five. Opening week of 2020 will come quicker than you […]
With two games remaining for most teams, there are still nine teams that have a realistic shot at making the College Football Playoff this season. Not coincidentally, they are the top nine teams in the current College Football Playoff Rankings. #9 Baylor (10-1) Remaining Games: @ Kansas and @ Oklahoma The Baylor Bears are already […]
The final of the always-exciting Maui Invitational is somewhat unexpected. Most of us were waiting to get a look at Michigan State taking on Kansas in this game, giving us an early peak at two national title contenders slugging it out on a neutral floor. Instead, the Spartans fell at the first hurdle, upset 71-66 against Virginia Tech. It’s not […]
As the season wounds down the amount we have covered over the past three and a half months has been overly revealing. We will start at the top in the AAC where Cincinnati and Memphis will likely play in consecutive weeks. If the Tigers beat the Bearcats at home this week then the conference title […]
We’ve reached the final week of the college football regular season and a lot is still yet to be determined in terms of who will represent in their respective conference championships. Here’s a quick rundown of what’s at stake this week. ACC – Clemson will await the winner of Friday’s Virginia Tech at Virginia game. […]
On account of Thanksgiving weekend, this week’s NBA slate is an unbalanced one. With no games on Thursday, we’ve got big cards on Monday, Wednesday, Friday, and Sunday. Let’s take a look at a couple teams who have to navigate this somewhat tricky week of action, including one who deserves consideration to play on, and one to think of perhaps fading. […]
With the first couple of weeks of college basketball action in the books, let’s take a look at a few teams and the impact their start has had on their KenPom ranking. KenPom is such a huge part of the making of the market when it comes to college basketball, that it’s important to take note of teams rising and falling. […]
Heading into Week 12 of the NFL season, the homestretch is upon us. Each game becomes critical this time of year as some teams are fighting for a playoff spot while others are playing for seeding or draft position. While no team has clinched a playoff spot just yet, at this point in the season […]
The rich get richer and the product gets shittier. To the casual observer, sports betting in the United State is expanding at a very healthy rate. Most sportsbooks are reporting healthy profits. Nothing detrimental has occurred to deter other states from joining the party. Nearly every major media outlet has some talking head telling you […]
In some ways, the NHL’s Atlantic Division has been the most surprising in the league to date. While the defending Eastern Conference Champion Boston Bruins have picked up where they left off, the likes of Tampa Bay and Toronto, both of whom were two of the four favorites to win it all, have stumbled through the first seven […]
With two weeks remaining in college football’s regular season, it’s time to start checking in on the various conference title game scenarios. Note that this will all change dramatically after this weekend’s game; a team playing for everything may have zero to play for in the season finale. Let’s take a look at where all […]
We continue to see the unfathomable in college football as Baylor collapsed up 28 and Cincinnati needed a last second field goal to beat a beleaguered USF squad after trailing for most of the game. One thing is clear: LSU, Utah, Oregon, and Clemson are all out for blood. They smell serious playoff implications and […]
With another full week of NBA action ahead of us, let’s take a look at two teams, one of whom has gotten off to a great start, and one who has stumbled out of the gates. This week could be a struggle for both clubs. Boston Celtics (10-2 SU, 6-4-2 ATS) There’s no doubting the Celtics have exceeded expectations […]
The college basketball season started just over a week ago and in the two polls that have been released this season we have seen the #1 ranked team lose each week. Of the 25 teams ranked as of November 14, nine have lost a game already and only nine made it to 3-0. It’s still […]
The college basketball season is a week old, so let’s take a look at some early observations, as well as some teams that have surprised and disappointed in the early going. It’s the Under, Stupid Much was made of the NCAA’s decision to push the three-point line back this year. Since 2008, the three-point line has been 20 feet and […]
Being a college football oddsmaker gets progressively easier throughout the season. Weeks 1 and 2 are littered with unknowns. The next few weeks you spend trying not to overreact to what took place. Midseason the haves and have nots start to emerge. And by mid-November, making numbers is as as easy as plugging in two […]
Make no mistake, the 2019-20 Miami Dolphins are historically bad. And the data supports this claim when we look at the overall DVOA of the NFL’s worst teams over the last decade. NFL’s Worst Overall DVOA Miami 2019: -51.6% Arizona 2018: -40.7% Cleveland 2017: -27.2% NY Jets 2016: -32.4% San Francisco 2015: -27.5% Jacksonville 2014: […]
With a busy week of NBA action ahead, let’s take a look at a few two and the road that they face over the next seven days. Atlanta Hawks The Atlanta Hawks were the first surprise of the young NBA season. The Hawks won their opening two games of the year against Detroit and Orlando. […]
In the AAC we saw USF head coach Charlie Strong, who fought to get a upgrade at offensive coordinator, completely ignore said OC and play the slow tempo that he prefers. Strong is an incredible defensive coordinator who recruits well but clearly has no ability to be a head coach. UCF has road woes. They […]
(Liverpool +170, Manchester City +140, Draw +260) This Sunday EPL bettors will be treated to the biggest matchup of the season. League leaders Liverpool take on defending EPL champions Manchester City, with the two teams already having established themselves as the clear contenders for this year’s crown. Let’s take a look at the two teams […]
As the NBA season continues, bettors can begin to take advantage of more situational plays in an attempt to find value as the market further reacts to play thus far. One aspect of moving deeper into the season is we can start to identify scheduling and travel spots from which value may be derived. Let’s take a look at two Atlantic Division teams, where they find themselves this weekend, and […]
Today, following our Big 12 preview, we are closing out our look at the power five conferences with a the PAC 12. Below is a brief glance at the state of the conference, as well as a more in-depth discussion of a few of the conference’s teams and major storylines. Last season was a disaster for […]
With college basketball season officially underway, let’s look at some tips and strategies to help you become a successful second half bettor. 1. Watching games really helps – By watching the first half, you’re able to gather a lot of info that wasn’t readily available prior to the game. You can see if a key […]
With the college basketball season getting underway today, let’s take a look at the state of affairs in the Big 12, as well as a few teams who may be particularly intriguing as the season unfolds. Last season was, to be kind, a down year for the Big 12 Conference. While it did manage to field six […]
The college basketball season tips off today as 19 of the 25 ranked teams will be in action including no. 3 vs. no. 4 and no. 1 vs. no. 1 in the Champions Classic. Virginia is the defending national champion but enter the year 11th. After last year’s title run, the Cavaliers lost their three best […]
Per usual the college football world was one big Tilt-A-World of fun last week. Starting in the Sun Belt, how do you adjust teams like Appalachian State who was clearly not prepared for 25 mph winds or Georgia Southern that redeemed itself after struggling to put away the South Alabama and Coastal Carolina? In perfect weather […]
As the NHL season rolls into November, let’s take a look at a couple of teams that may deliver hockey bettors some value as the market tries to make sense of the first few weeks of the year. Play: Tampa Bay Lightning Last year, the Tampa Bay Lightning put together one of the greatest regular seasons in NHL history. Tampa’s […]
Following up on our ACC, and SEC previews, today we take a look at the Big Ten. This year, the conference shows out with four teams ranked in the AP preseason Top 25, including the #1 ranked Michigan State Spartans. Yet, this conference may yet be underrated. Purdue are ranked 23rd in the poll, yet 7th in the KenPom preseason rankings. Ohio State are […]
The NBA season is in full-swing and there have been the usual array of surprises and disappointments that come with the beginning to any season. Let’s take a look at Thursday’s three-game card and try to start to make sense of what we’ve seen so far. Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks (+6.5) Thursday’s first matchup is the […]
By now you’re probably already aware of the shitstorm taking place at Deadpsin. If not, it’s pretty simple: The top brass and writers clashed which led to nearly every writer handing in his or her resignation. Regardless of how you feel about Deadspin’s left-leaning ways, they had talent. And for every dick joke blog they […]
While Big East preseason talk is dominated by the return of its two biggest stars, the story of the SEC is one of change and transition. Twelve players from this conference were selected in the NBA draft this summer. Moreover, of the 16 players named to 2018-19 All-SEC teams, only two (Breein Tyree and Skylar Mays) return this season. […]
Now that we are over a quarter of the way through the English Premier League season, we’ve got a decent sample size from which bettors can build on. While we must be careful to overestimate what we’ve seen on the field so far, we’re at a stage of the season where the markets are reacting as well. […]
We learned a ton per usual in Week 9. What is very clear to me is the bottom power 5 conferences, the ACC and PAC-12, are becoming harder and harder to navigate each week. Typically every conference will see a team that doesn’t have a bowl bid kind of pack it in and start to […]
With the NBA season underway, bettors need to avoid overreacting to some of the first things they see as teams settle into the grind of the NBA season. Oftentimes, early performance can be deceiving, as it’s difficult to know which players will hit the ground running, and which may take some more time after months off. However, there […]
With the college basketball season less than two weeks away, we are going to focus on the Power Conferences, and take a look at some schools within each conference, and where they stand heading into the year from a betting perspective. Virginia Cavaliers Out of respect, we go longest with the champs. After a dominant regular season that saw Tony […]
The 18th edition of the under-17 World Cup is set to begin on Saturday, October 26.Three different cities in Brazil will host matches at four venues. These youth tournaments are very exciting and have catapulted the careers of many of the current superstars of soccer. The 24 teams that qualified have been drawn into six […]
College basketball is begins in less than two weeks which means information-gathering is a non-stop job from now until April. As the exhibition games, charity games, and the secret scrimmages come in, your opinions of each team should change. Injuries to a key player are as important as which players are declared eligible or ineligible. […]
The college basketball season is less than two weeks away and bettors should be aware of two new rules changes that will implemented. The first is that the shot clock will reset to 20 seconds rather than 30 after an offensive rebound. This is obviously good for over bettors who hate to see a team […]
Two weeks ago, I discussed college basketball’s power conference head coach changes. Today, let’s focus our attention on some of the more notable mid-major hires. Appalachian State – Dustin Kerns The Mountaineers failed to produce a winning record overall or in Sun Belt play under Jim Fox. His teams were noted for playing fast and […]
With the NBA regular season set to tip off tonight, let’s continue our look at some of the most interesting award props available at Bovada. Most Improved Player In many ways, the Most Improved Player Award is the most intriguing award market available to NBA bettors. While the MVP award typically offers less variance, this is an honor that […]
Now that we’ve covered the Eastern Conference, the Northwest and Pacific Divisions, we are wrapping up our NBA divisional previews with a look at the NBA’s Southwest Division. Houston Rockets (-280 to win Southwest Division) The Rockets come in as the second largest favorite to win a division title. With a win total projection of 53.5, Vegas projects an eight-game gap between […]
Shocking results are taking place in college football at a pace that even the polls committee is going to have to admit that Appalachian State is really good…just kidding. Boise State was knocked off by BYU’s third-string quarterback. Wisconsin was knocked off by Illinois’ back-up quarterback…as +33 point underdogs. Tua was throwing picks and hurt […]
Today, we’re taking a quick break from our NBA divisional betting previews, and focusing on some player season props. Let’s take a look at a few interesting prices that are available at Bovada. Regular Season Assists Per Game Leader: Lebron James (+425) This season, LeBron James will be out to fix the narrative of his […]
On Monday, we began our preview of the NBA’s Western Conference. Today, we continue that analysis with a look at the top-heavy Pacific Division. Los Angeles Clippers (-140 to win Pacific Division) The Clippers have well and truly arrived. After years of progress in the post-Donald Sterling era, Los Angeles had arguably the most impactful summer since the Warriors […]
As the midway point has been reached by more than half of college football, it’s clear the more things change the more things remain the same. One thing that really sticks out in power 5 conferences outside of the PAC-12 is the consistency of Clemson, Oklahoma, Alabama, and Ohio State — it’s become overwhelming how […]
This week, we turn our attention to the NBA’s Western Conference. Let’s start by taking a look at the betting prospects of the teams in the Northwest Division. Utah Jazz (+120 to win Northwest Division) Last year, for the second season in a row, the Utah Jazz overcame a woeful start to claim the fifth-seed in the […]
On the heels of our Atlantic and Central division previews, we wrap up the Eastern Conference with a look at the NBA’s worst division, the Southeast. Just how bad is this afterthought of a grouping? Using win total futures as a guide, we can see that Vegas has the entire division projected at 170 wins. When contrasted with the Atlantic Division’s total of […]
The NBA MVP award is arguably the most important individual honor in all of American sports. Each year, the race for the crown is obsessed over by fans and pundits alike. It is also a favorite future bet for many NBA bettors. Let’s take a break from our divisional previews and look at some preseason MVP future odds. Giannis Antetokounmpo (+270 to win […]
On Monday, we broke down the Atlantic Division from a betting perspective. In Part 2 of these NBA season previews, we turn our attention to the Central Division. Welcome to the Freakshow: Milwaukee Bucks (-1100 to win Central Division) By some distance, the Milwaukee Bucks are the biggest favorite to win their division in the entire NBA. For some perspective, […]
The NFL is notorious for producing near even season-long results when it comes to home/away, favorite/underdog, and over/unders. Serious bettors typically approach games individually but if a league-wide trend starts to emerge, it generally corrects itself over time. Thus far, this season has produced some fairly pronounced trends, most notably road teams. Heading into Week […]
Today and tomorrow feature a Game 4 and two series-deciding Game 5 battles in the three series that remain in the MLB divisional round. The Yankees pummeled the Twins to gain a berth in the ALCS, and they await the winner of the Houston-Tampa Bay contest. Let’s take a look at the remaining series so […]
With the start of the NBA season now just two weeks away, we are going to start breaking down the league division-by-division, in order to help find some possible value in the future market before the games come fast and furious. Let’s begin with the Atlantic Division. The Favorite: Philadelphia 76ers (-160 to win Atlantic Division) When […]
The college basketball season is about a month away. Prep work is already underway with the first task being to dissect the litany of head coaching changes. In the first of two articles, I break down my initial thoughts and opinions on each power conference hire. Alabama – Nate Oats I would have liked to […]
Last week we learned that the bad programs of old are the bad programs of today. That and this season is now officially on odd results steroids as massive variance for bettors is underway in extreme fashion. Weekday action got underway where the AAC showcased Temple head coach Rod Carey sneaking to 4-1. The Owls […]
With the wild-card round in the books, MLB playoff action begins in earnest Thursday. Let’s take a look at each upcoming series. St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves This battle of division champions is easily the most even matchup of the divisional round. The Braves (97-65) have home field advantage against NL Central champs St. […]
For the casual fan, the EPL season still feels brand new. Bettors, on the other hand, know that almost one-fifth of the year’s matches are already in the books, and we are entering a critical time for those seeking to end the campaign with a positive ROI. The sample size is still relatively small, but the […]
We’re approaching the halfway point of the college football season. Most odddsmakers and bettors will tell you they have a pretty good feel for a majority of teams but there are still a handful that offer differentiating opinions. Let’s discuss some of those teams in this week’s edition of early week point spread moves. UCF […]
Well, I survived September in the black; always a welcomed sight! I find September the hardest task of all as many handicappers feel the opposite. Week 5 had a plethora of noteworthy teams that we can look at. Let’s start with the weekday games. Memphis has a extremely inefficient offense that relies on explosive plays. […]
Another MLB regular season is in the books. The two biggest themes this year were home runs (again) and the art of tanking. Those were directly correlated to what occurred from a betting perspective; the Minnesota Twins led MLB in home runs and finished second in profits (+21.9 units) while the Detroit Tigers won 47 […]
Where there’s a will, there’s a…betting market. In the wake of all of the Donald Trump impeachment talk, a few sportsbooks have posted odds on whether or not it will occur. Impeachment obviously doesn’t happen on a regular basis. Only two presidents — Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton — have suffered the fate. It’s also […]
With four weeks worth of games in the books, the college football betting markets are starting to formulate stronger opinions. Some of those opinions have clashed with those of oddsmakers. Let’s take a look at some of the more noteworthy early week point spread moves for Week 5. Northwestern at Wisconsin CRIS Opener: Wisconsin -21 […]
Weird week for yours personally. The highs and lows of many games had me rethinking that no intoxicating substance rule but I rebounded decently. We now move on. I think Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh just lost his job. You can’t have that level of talent and repeatedly get your teeth kicked in on the […]
With the first round of group stage matches behind us, let’s take a look at some of the narratives emerging in the Champions League, and how to identify teams to play and teams to fade. See the Puzzle Pieces If a Major League Baseball campaign is a marathon, a season competing at the top of […]
It’s not too often that NFL bettors witness a combined 26.5 points worth of difference between the opening point spreads and current market. In a typical week, there’s less that half of that with maybe a big move or two due to injury. The reason for the point spread chaos is simple: Nearly half the […]
Yesterday I shared some of the key observations in Part I that I’ve made during the first two weeks of the NFL season. Today’s article is a continuation of those early season observations to keep in mind when going to the betting window. Josh Allen has Made Significant Strides I like what I’m seeing so far from Bills quarterback Josh Allen. The second-year […]
The college football betting markets are constantly moving. Teams play games and oddsmakers and bettors react. Play well on the scoreboard or box score and you’re likely to receive a power rating bump. Lose is spectacularly bad fashion or get outgained against an FCS squad and you’re likely to be downgraded. In the end, a […]
We’ve seen two games from every NFL squad and that’s enough time to start forming opinions on teams and adjust some of their offensive and defensive ratings. I’m generally a little bit slower to make adjustments to my preseason ratings than most, mainly because small sample sizes can be deceiving and I firmly believe that Week 1 results are often […]
Most NFL years go as followed: The preseason is dedicated to projecting who is capable of dethroning the New England Patriots. A bunch of key players get hurt. Referees botch a bunch of late-game calls. Four or five teams perform way above or below expectations. The postseason is dedicated to projecting who is capable of […]
College football produces a lot of what are commonly referred to as “WTF” outcomes. Each week, the betting markets move confidently in a direction only to see a result so far removed from what was projected that is makes even those most seasoned bettor’s head hurt. In analyzing Week 3, we seemed to have witnessed […]
The more things change in college football, the more they stay the same. We saw some incredible performances by UCF, Washington State, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Georgia, and Clemson. All with identities on both sides of the ball. On the flip side we saw Michigan State lose despite giving up only 216 yards of offense. Mark […]
With players reporting to training camp this week, now is as good a time as any to take a quick review of the NHL offseason and look at how some teams are positioned on the betting market to open up the year. NHL bettors are well aware that the sport provides something of a niche […]
Another week, another NFL starting quarterback on the shelf. News broke yesterday morning that New York Jets quarterback Sam Darnold will be sidelined indefinitely with mono. Thrust into the starting role will be Trevor Siemian who saw ample playing time in 2017 and 2017 for the Denver Broncos. Siemian did not play last season while […]
Heading into Week 1, talk of the Miami Dolphins tanking this season really heated up. So much so that bettors took the opening summer line of +3.5 vs. Baltimore and pushed it all the way to +7 — a near unprecedented move for an NFL game not involving a key injury. Heck, the Indianapolis Colts […]
With two weeks worth of games in the books, the college football betting markets are starting to formulate stronger opinions. Some of those opinions have clashed with those of oddsmakers. Let’s take a look at some of the more noteworthy early week point spread moves for Week 3. Washington State at Houston CRIS Opener: Washington […]
I’ll start off by stating the obvious: Texas is probably not back, neither is Florida State, Miami, Nebraska, or Tennessee. Some of these shocking results we’ve seen have me numb after only two weeks. ACC Florida State obviously has some conditioning issues. They have a top-five offense right away (hello, Kendall Briles) but in two […]
Unlike college football, you don’t often hear phrases like “Year Zero”, “complete rebuild”, or “tank mode” get tossed around when discussing the NFL. But that’s exactly what is being used to describe this year’s Miami Dolphins. After producing a fraudulent 7-9 record (outscored by 114 points), oddsmakers and the betting markets didn’t think much of […]
Nearly three months of starring at the same matchups and point spreads and while I was able to net a small profit, I for one am glad college football’s Week 1 is in the rear view mirror. There were things I spotted throughout my preseason research that played out accordingly and others where my projection […]
As the MLB regular season action enters its final month, it’s time to take a closer look at betting advantages and angles that can appear in these final weeks. Let’s examine some of the ways baseball in September differs from the rest of the year. Keeping these factors in mind can help build your bankroll […]
During Week 1 of the college football season, we learned before anything else that expectations by the media ruin our peripheral vision more so year by year. We know the talent between the non-Power 5 and even the FCS is getting closer year after year – mostly due to the transfer portal, constant head coaching […]
Shock waves were sent throughout the sports betting community this past weekend as Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck announced his retirement from the NFL. Below is a look at the pre- and post-retirement betting numbers according to 5Dimes. Before Week 1: +3 at Los Angeles Chargers Win Total: 9.5/10 Odds to Win AFC South: -125 […]
I’m recommending a bet on the Virginia Cavaliers over their regular season win total of 7.5 (-150). My preseason analysis has the Cavs projected to win between 8-10 games. Let’s first take a look at their schedule. 8/31: @ Pittsburgh 9/6: William & Mary 9/14: Florida State 9/21: Old Dominion 9/28: @ Notre Dame 10/11: […]
On the heels of a summer that featured unprecedented superstar movement, bettors will have to be prepared for a massively altered NBA landscape. With training camp just over a month away, most of the offseason player movement is finished (save for the exciting Dwight Howard Sweepstakes) and it’s time to review some of the insanity […]
For most sports bettors, picking winners is their sole focus. They handicap a game, log on or head down to their local sportsbook, and make a bet. But for bettors wanting to elevate their game and increase their winning percentage, having access to and accurately reading the betting markets are must haves. This of course […]
College football’s Week 1 is a far different handicap compared to the remainder of the season. What makes it unique is that lines have been up for much of the summer and most bets are made based on projections rather than results and accumulated data. A key to betting Week 1 is understanding where teams […]
Degenerate. That’s the first word you often hear when telling your friends that you’re placing wagers on preseason NFL games. But don’t worry about getting mocked for betting on “exhibition” games. The money you earn from cashing tickets during the preseason spends exactly the same as money made during the regular season. There are also […]
These are the dog days, indeed. On the heels of the All-Star break and the trade deadline, August can be an absolute slog. The wear-and-tear of the MLB marathon can get to any club, whether they’re competing for a playoff berth or looking to the future. As the narratives splinter into a thousand pieces, there’s […]
Similar to the NFC North, the NFC South features three very competitive teams expected to win around nine games and be in a position to reach the playoffs. Let’s take a look at division and see exactly where they stand from a betting perspective heading into the season. NFC South Division Odds; Regular Season Wins […]
Last year around this time, I wrote an article discussing a recent phenomenon that was taking place in MLB: Big favorites had become the best bet on the planet. After yesterday’s Houston-Baltimore game in which the Astros closed as -430 road chalk and lost — a day removed from winning 23-2 — it was a […]
The helmet rule, concussion protocols, the elimination of crackback blocks and changes in the kickoff rules. These were some of the safety measures the NFL has taken in recent years to reduce the amount of injuries to its athletes. The results are mixed on whether the changes have been effective. The NFL is clearly trying, […]
The soccer world’s most popular domestic competition, the English Premier League, kicks off this weekend. No other league garners as much attention stateside, and it is a great starting point for any bettor looking to dive into the Beautiful Game. While the beginning of any season, in any sport, requires a cautious approach, there are […]
One of the strongest divisions in the NFL top to bottom, the NFC North features three teams currently lined with a regular season win total of 9. Let’s take a look at what we can expect from all four squads from a betting perspective in 2019. NFC North Division Odds: Regular Season Wins Chicago Bears […]
Those interested in participating in any Las Vegas’ football contests have about a month left before the registration deadline. Note that those living outside of Nevada can pay a fee and utilize a proxy service. Below are some of the details of the five main contests for the 2018-19 season. The Westgate SuperContest remains the […]
The NFC West was incredibly lopsided in 2018, with the LA Rams (13-3) and Seattle (10-6) making postseason appearances, while San Francisco (4-12) and Arizona (3-13) never had a chance. The division figures to be more balanced in 2019, but the pecking order remains the same. Let’s take a look at the NFC West division odds and regular […]
The NFC East looks to be a clear two-way race between both division supremacy (Eagles and Cowboys) and the basement (Redskins and Giants). Dallas won the division crown last season with a 10-6 record, but the Eagles look to have the upper hand heading into the 2019 campaign after a mediocre 9-7 campaign last year. […]
I played all of my regular season win totals this year at different shops. The one beauty of regular season wins and futures is you can shop around as the vig, and even the actual win totals themselves, fluctuate significantly from book to book. They will move rapidly at times, but in the end, there […]
How many returning starters does Team X have on offense and defense? Did they suffer any “key” losses? These are common questions leading up to the college football season and staples in preseason college football handicapping. However, you don’t hear these topics being discussed nearly as frequently by handicappers in the NFL before the season. […]
With the MLB trade deadline passed, oddsmakers were quick to adjust their World Series odds. There were a handful of moves — or lack thereof — that have the potential to impact a team’s chances to win it all. The biggest move was of course the Houston Astros picking up Zack Greinke and bolstering an […]
Every March, I sit in the office with two NBA games going (muted), and I start the Notebook. I know it’s going to take me 200-300 hours minimum going in. It’s tedious and, yes, it’s boring. But I also love it and, while there are days I’d rather be in the mountains playing with my […]
The AFC North looks to be a three-team race with the upstart Cleveland Browns favored to win the division. Let’s take a look at each team and how they project to perform from a betting perspective this season. AFC North Division Odds; Regular Season Wins Baltimore Ravens +280; 8ov-135 Cincinnati Bengals +1400; 6un-135 Cleveland Browns […]
We’re less than a month away from the first college football game of the season. Point spreads on all of Week 1’s games have been up both offshore and in Las Vegas since early June. A handful of games have already seen significant movement while others haven’t budged. Accurately reading the market, especially early in […]
Once again, the AFC East looks like a one-team race. The New England Patriots are big favorites to win their 11th straight division crown and 16th in 17 years. The Jets and the Bills could be improved, but neither are projected to even finish at the .500 mark. Let’s take a look at the division odds and regular season win totals: AFC East Division […]
My preparation for the college football season is in full swing as I put together a list of teams I feel can offer money making opportunities. Below is a list of five teams I’ve classified as “bet on” and “bet against.” Bet On Arkansas Razorbacks 2018 Record: 2-10 SU. 5-6-1 ATS 2019 Win Total: 5.5un-135 […]
The AFC South is probably the most well-rounded division in the entire NFL. All four teams have realistic playoff aspirations and each is lined with regular season win totals of 8 wins or above. Last season, the Houston Texans won the division with an 11-5 mark and the Indianapolis Colts qualified as a Wild Card […]
Stop if you’ve heard this before: Conservative, run-first college football coach has offseason epiphany; brings in new offensive coordinator to run “up-tempo” offense. That is what is reportedly on the docket this season for the Michigan Wolverines. Under Jim Harbaugh the Wolverines always grade out as one of the slower teams in the country. Last […]
Last month, we wrote two pieces, here and here, on how to become a successful college football bettor. Today, let’s add to it with a few advanced techniques that will help assist you in producing a profitable season. Pace – Bettors often associate pace with basketball totals but it can be utilized in football as […]
Get immediate results or find yourself a new job. That’s what mantra in the NFL has become in recent years for head coaches and coordinators. The average tenure for a head coach heading into the 2019 season is just 3.8 years. And that includes the likes of veterans Bill Belichick (19 years as head coach […]
As a mid-20-year-old, I was fairly lost. I played chess, backgammon and of course poker for money, or at times as cheap way not to spend money. My first introductions to gambling were playing $1 blitz chess games and 4/8 limit hold em at a social club. I never really wanted to be anything in […]
It’s that time of year for bettors to start sifting through college football’s returning starters and no position gets more attention than quarterbacks. Each season and number of signal callers put up impressive numbers and results only to depart via graduation or leave early for the NFL. Throughout the preseason, the media and various prognosticators […]
The MLB betting markets are largely driven by starting pitching. If Team A’s starter has a better statistical profile than Team B’s starter, often times regardless of other factors — bullpen, defense, and offense — Team A is favored. What I was curious to find out is what exactly a profitable starting pitcher’s statistical profile […]
The college football futures betting market is starting to mature with regular season win totals available at a number of offshore and Las Vegas sportsbooks. Today let’s analyze this season’s biggest “gainers” and “decliners” (2.5 wins ore more) based on last year’s regular season win total and this year’s current number according to 5Dimes. Buffalo […]
The first half of the 2019 MLB season is in the books and it has been a historic season thus far. We’ve seen 3,691 home runs hit already and it’s only going to get hotter in July and August. Home run records will be broken on several levels. Outside of the National League Central, the […]
At the beginning of the summer, I isolated six soccer tournaments/cups that I call “one-off” events. After a profitable summer of soccer, there is only one cup left. This is the 32nd edition of the African Cup of Nations. Originally, I did not have the AfCoN on my list due to the lack of television […]
The NBA’s free agent bonanza is nearing its end with Kawhi Leonard’s landing spot all that’s left to be determined in terms of what will move the needle of the futures market. On Friday’s BettorIQ Podcast we discussed the betting market’s reaction to some of the rumors and actual signings. Below we have a before […]
It’s depressing to read about some of the shady tactics sportsbooks utilize in order to make a buck. Whether it’s dealing 20 or 30 cent MLB lines or kicking winning players to the curb, a number of sportsbooks have brazenly bypassed the “we’re a business” mantra and entered “let’s come up with more ways to […]
Looks as if there has been a shift in power with MLB’s interleague play. For years, the American League was justifiably viewed as the dominant of the two. In fact, the AL “won” 14 straight seasons from 2004 to 2017. But that streak came to an end last season when the National League posted a […]
Building on yesterday’s article on how to be a successful bettor with a small bankroll, let’s focus our attention on what sports and bet types to target and avoid. 1. Prop Bets. The biggest benefit of betting smaller amounts is that everything is in play. Most online sportsbooks offer a plethora of options beyond your […]
Whether you do it recreationally or have visions of becoming a professional, there’s a starting point for every sports bettor. This usually entails a bankroll — money set aside solely for betting — and unit size — the amount you plan on betting per game. In this article I’ll discuss how you should approach sports […]
A quick look at two fights slated for this weekend’s UFC Fight Night 154 in Greenville, SC. Chan Sung Jung (+175) vs. Renato Moicano (-210) Chan Sung Jung, AKA The Korean Zombie (14-5), looks to bounce back after a devastating last second lost to Yair Rodriguez back in November. Jung and his exciting style will […]
Yesterday, we touched on a few concepts and techniques to assist you in becoming a more profitable college football bettor. Today, we’ll build on that list with discussions on summer markets, bet timing, and line moves. 1. Use the preseason as a guide. People love betting college football and sportsbooks know this, which is why […]
We’re about two months away from Week 1 of the college football season. With preseason annuals on the bookshelves and online content starting to pour in, now is as good a time as any to brush up on your handicapping. With over 100 teams and 10 conferences, the manual on how to successfully bet college […]
Every year I track beat writers of college football teams that have hit a bad run or the program is just flat. I highly recommend when researching preseason or preview writers to look for authors who will write without bias. If a team is not capable of producing wins but you’re constantly being sold they […]
In the world of sports betting, it’s common to hear people discuss the importance of “leaving your emotions at the door.” It’s a nice theory but one that is extremely hard to consistently execute. As human beings, we react emotionally on a daily basis to even the most mundane of situations. When it comes to […]
With much of the East Coast offering legalized sports betting, it was only a matter of time before New York joined the party. The Empire State recently announced that sports betting will be available to state residents at some point this summer. But like a lot of states, bettors should not expect a full smorgasbord […]
One of the biggest negatives that has come with legalized sports betting’s boom is the amount of useless information readily available to the public. Whether it’s #GamblingTwitter or the endless array of “data driven” websites, the judgment of even the most seasoned of bettors is constantly being tested. The easiest and most dangerous rabbit hole […]
Let’s take an in-depth look at two matchups taking place at Saturday’s UFC 238. Henry Cejudo (+115) vs. Marlon Moraes (-135) T.J. Dillashaw’s recent trouble with the USADA has forced him to relinquish the title and it is now up for grabs. Henry Cejudo can now become a two-division champion with a win over Marlon Moraes. Cejudo […]
At its core, line shopping is a simple concept. Assuming a sports bettor has access to multiple sportsbooks, looking at your odds screen or logging on and checking each line is an obvious starting point. You’ve heard the phrase, “every point matters” and nowhere is that more true than sports betting. Imagine making 1,000 bets […]
I’ve been betting on sports for over 20 years. During that span I’ve learned a lot from both the good and bad advice of others and through my own experiences. The most common mistake I see from rookie sports bettors is making the experience unnecessarily complex. We’ve all heard the phrase, “keep it simple, stupid.” […]
International youth soccer tournaments are among the most enjoyable aspects of betting. Unlike the senior national teams, these kids rarely get the chance to play together. Most of the teams are comprised of a combination of players from different domestic teams all over the world. The countries that can afford to put the resources in […]
It’s been pretty remarkable to witness the evolution in betting opinion towards the Toronto Raptors. Heading into the Eastern Conference Finals, the Milwaukee Bucks were as high as a -300 series favorite. Oddsmakers appeared right in pricing the Bucks 3-1 as they won and covered Games 1 and 2. The Raptors managed to fire back […]
Because they remain conference-less, every year Notre Dame’s schedule receives an incredible amount of dissection. The most pressing question everyone wants to know whether or not the slate sets up for the Irish to be in the College Football Playoff discussion. Last year, Notre Dame reached the playoffs — and got destroyed — but their […]
In analyzing the St. Louis Cardinals prior to the season, I made the note, “look to bet on vs. left-handed starters.” The reason was fairly simple as the Cardinals lineup is loaded with right-handed bats. Not only that but there are a handful of bats that are significantly better vs. southpaws. Below are the career […]
While a starting pitcher is only one piece to the very complex equation of handicapping the MLB, they continue to account for a big chunk of the traditional moneyline price. Below we take a look at some of this season’s outlier performers — “earners” and “burners” — and analyze how to approach them from a […]
The offshore sportsbook world suffered a recent casualty as The Greek announced that it was shutting down. Current players have the option of cashing out or transferring to BetCRIS. Years ago, The Greek was considered an offshore heavyweight; willing to take sharp bettors and offer competitive limits. In 2011, however, it decided to halt service […]
The race to capitalize on legalized sports betting continues as ESPN recently inked a deal with Caesars Entertainment Corp. The initial plan is for a broadcast studio to be built at The Linq Hotel in Las Vegas. Early this year ESPN launched Daily Wager; a Sports Center-type show on ESPN News that centers around sports […]
If you are wondering what an “over” MLB team looks like, look no further than the Seattle Mariners. Nearly 75 percent of Seattle’s games thus far have gone over the total (35-12-2 O/U). As with any early season outlier statistic, it deserves some investigation as to why and whether or not bettors can expect it […]
Earlier this week, we discussed the Cincinnati Reds and their “unlucky” record. Let’s shift gears and dive into the Pittsburgh Pirates who heading into Friday have been outscored by over a run per game and yet are one game over .500. Pittsburgh currently owns the highest “luck” factor in MLB with an overall record of […]
Golden Nugget sportsbook director Tony Miller announced that his famed College Football Games of the Year will be offered starting Thursday, May 30. For bettors willing to do their homework, this offers an excellent opportunity to invest in some potentially “soft” college football lines. Below are some tips on how to put a few winning […]
Every MLB season there are a handful of teams that record-wise underachieve or overachieve based on their run differential. Baseball Reference takes a team’s win-loss record and Pythagorean win-loss record and the difference is graded as “luck.” For example, last year’s Seattle Mariners finished 89-73 but had a -0.2 run differential which equated to a […]
The 145th running of the Kentucky Derby was one of the most memorable horse races of all time. The winner, Maximum Security was disqualified and placed 17th. Initially, the Stewards weren’t going to even look at the race until two jockeys filed an objection and well, you know the rest of the story I have […]
Houston-Golden State sure hasn’t been the most visually appealing of this year’s NBA Playoff series but it’s at a near bat shit crazy level of interesting. Game 1 saw the Warriors win, 104-100 but fail to cover at -6 home chalk. After the game, the Rockets called out the refs for robbing them of victory. […]
Since 2004, there have been 42 no-hitters thrown in MLB. The most recent of which took place last night in Oakland as Mike Fiers fired the second no-no of his career. A no-hitter is a relatively rare occurrence, one that over the last decade happens on average around three times per season. We however were […]
I don’t bet a lot of horse racing in large part because I admittedly don’t know how to handicap it. I grew up by a race track, of which I frequented as a teenager, made plenty of $2 show bets with the hopes of turning that into some extra beer money, but my skill level […]
I attend college in the state of Tennessee and now live in a suburb just outside of Nashville. I’m originally from Chicago so initially, living in the “south” was a bit of an adjustment — the food, accents, churches every eight feet, etc. Now that I’m older, I’ve seen the area evolve. Twenty years ago, […]
The first Saturday in May brings us the 145th running of the Kentucky Derby, hosted by Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky. This horse racing festival draws interest from the most astute handicapper to people who aren’t even fans of horse racing and are genuinely just looking for a reason to dress up and wear an […]
I discussed prior to the MLB season that betting against the Baltimore Orioles was going to be a tricky proposition. The reason was simple: The betting markets were projected to price this team as one of the worst in the modern era. Heading into Tuesday night, Baltimore is 10-20 but down less than -1 unit […]
With over a season’s worth of data (93 games to be exact) let’s take a quick look at how the humidor has impacted Chase Field. From a raw statistical standpoint, home runs were noticeably down in 2018 compared to 2017. Year: Home Runs Per Game 2019: 2.83 2018: 2.09 2017: 2.68 2016: 2.73 2015: 1.91 […]
Around a decade ago, umpires were a significant part of my MLB handicapping process. Put John Hirschbeck or Doug Eddings behind the plate and it was an automatic bet on the under. And on the rare occasion one of those two was calling a “getaway day” game, my bet size would reach well beyond the […]
Over the last few seasons, it’s been widely speculated — and heavily researched — that baseballs used at the MLB level were “juiced.” Hell, we’re not even out of April — a month notorious for pitcher friendly weather — and MLB’s home run rate (1.33 per game) is at an all-time high. And if you’re […]
With the entire NFL regular season schedule recently released, bettors now have more “ammo” to handicap futures and regular season win totals. One often used method is to create a strength of schedule rating based on more than just opposing teams’ winning percentage from the previous year. As a starting point, we formulated a strength […]
It’s not a full market but it’s still impressive to see sides and totals on NFL Week 1 games at selective offshore and Las Vegas sportsbooks. The Westgate SuperBook was the first to post numbers Wednesday afternoon. Since then William Hill, CG Technology, CRIS and 5Dimes have followed suit. One of the perks of such […]
Eight games. Eight unders. That’s what took place during last weekend’s NBA Playoffs. The barrage of unders was due in large part to some very inefficient offense compared to what took place during the regular season. Scoring alone was down 10 ppg. Regular Season PPG: 111.2 Regular Season Efficiency: 110.4 Regular Season Pace: 100.0 Playoff […]
The NBA Playoffs are set to get underway on Saturday. Below we provide bettors with a betting “cheat sheet.” For those interested in a playoff service package, we have a special 2 for 1 offer. Receive every playoff selection from pro bettors Erin Rynning and Advantage Group for the discounted rate of $199. (6) Brooklyn […]
Refreshingly detailed but at the same time alarming article from ESPN discussing the unique relationship between sportsbooks and bettors. Now that sports betting has become legalized throughout the United States there is a lot more discussion about customer experience. A decade ago, if you bet at an offshore sportsbook and got your limits slashed or […]
The college basketball season comes to an end tonight with the Texas Tech Red Raiders and Virginia Cavaliers facing off in the National Championship at US Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minn. Virginia is currently a -1.5 favorite offshore and -1 favorite at most sportsbooks in Las Vegas. The total was bet down off the opener […]
With the exception of the home run banging Los Angeles Dodgers (5-2) a number of MLB’s projected World Series contenders are off to sluggish starts. The baseball season is extremely long and it’s hard to imagine teams like the ultra-talented Astros not winning 95+ games. But not every preseason contenders will be able to “right […]
It’s never too early for the NFL betting markets to start heating up. This past Sunday, Las Vegas’ CG Technology posted regular season win totals on all 32 teams. Below is a list of all of the opening numbers as well as each’s teams record from last year. According to the Las Vegas Review-Journal, early […]
It used to be a badge of honor for a pitcher to throw a complete game. Back in 1985, Bert Blyleven led the American League with a whopping 24 complete games. Dwight Gooden threw 16 of them to lead the National League. Fast forward to 2018, where no pitcher had more than two complete games for the season. […]
This year’s NCAA Tournament has whittled its way down to four with the Final Four being held on Saturday at US Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. While there are no Cinderella entrants (see: Loyola-Chicago last year) many of the usual suspects (Kansas, Villanova, Duke, Kentucky, and North Carolina) were bounced. Let’s take a look at how […]
Welcome to sports betting’s new frontier. Washington Capitals and Wizards owner Ted Leonsis recently stated at the Sports Betting Executive Summit that he plans on adding a sportsbook to Capital One Arena. Sports betting became legalized in Washington, D.C. last December. “There will be a sportsbook inside the building accessible from the outside and depending […]
While prepping for the upcoming MLB season, I happen to stumble upon last year’s standings and found a very interesting dynamic. In multiple divisions, the top two finishers had very similar records but incredibly different betting results. It was so unique that it deserved some research as perhaps we could apply our findings to future […]
The NCAA Tournament is down to 16 teams while the minor tournaments have reduced the number of teams still included to 17. At this point we have over 100 samples to use and there are some interesting trends emerging. – EXTRA teams only went 2-8 in the NCAA Tourney, but 7-3 ATS. Overall they come […]
When it comes to handicapping North Carolina totals, the first and most important question is what the opposition is thinking in terms of tempo. The Tar Heels as we know like to play ultra fast and score in transition. Not a lot of high level power conference teams have a similar philosophy. In fact, of […]
When sifting through some of the worst seasons in MLB history, nearly all took place before before the modern era. The two exceptions being the 2003 Detroit Tigers (43-119) and the 2018 Baltimore Orioles (47-115). Last year’s Baltimore team was comically bad; a product of a poorly run organization that two years prior lucked into […]
The NCAA Tournament’s Sweet 16 is set with eight games taking place on Thursday and Friday. The theme of this year’s Sweet 16 is “chalk” as all of this past weekend’s favorites advanced. To put it into perspective, of KenPom’s top 20 heading into the NCAA Tournament, 15 are currently still alive. The lone exception […]
The NCAA Tournament has arrived with “First Four” games starting tonight in Dayton, Ohio. I’ve been handicapping the Big Dance for over a decade and one of my techniques has always been to jot down my initial thoughts and opinions — call it “stream of consciousness” — on teams and matchups. Here is my “first […]
While most of the nation is focusing on the NCAA tournament, professional bettors will be taking advantage of any soft lines posted on the NIT (as well as the CIT and CBI). The motivation of each individual team is a factor for some bettors. I have never been able to pinpoint which teams want to […]
The NCAA Tournament has arrived with “First Four” games starting on Tuesday in Dayton, Ohio. I’ve been handicapping the Big Dance for over a decade and one of my techniques has always been to jot down my initial thoughts and opinions — call it “stream of consciousness” — on teams and matchups. Here is my […]
The NCAA Tournament has arrived with “First Four” games starting on Tuesday in Dayton, Ohio. I’ve been handicapping the Big Dance for over a decade and one of my techniques has always been to jot down my initial thoughts and opinions — call it “stream of consciousness” — on teams and matchups. Here is my […]
The NCAA Tournament has arrived with “First Four” games starting on Tuesday in Dayton, Ohio. I’ve been handicapping the Big Dance for over a decade and one of my techniques has always been to jot down my initial thoughts and opinions — call it “stream of consciousness” — on teams and matchups. So without further […]
It doesn’t take much to notice that oddsmakers tend to shade conference tournament games towards the under, especially when you have games involving teams on the bubble or a loss away from their season ending. But not every game is a Big Ten-esque slugfest with 58 possessions. Last night, totals went 30-32 O/U based on […]
For college basketball’s truly elite, conference tournaments don’t mean much compared to the Big Dance. Yes, a team that heading into the postseason that has the profile of a no. 3 seed, can potentially jump up to a no. 2 or even a no. 1. Most coaches would say that the “juice would be worth […]
Remember last year when the Cleveland Browns were the “it” team in the betting markets? Seemingly every week, money would flow in on the once downtrodden organization and more often than not, bettors were rewarded. Cleveland finished 7-8-1 straight up and 10-6 against the spread; one of only three teams to cover 10 or more […]
Wednesday marks the opening round of the Big 12 Tournament at Kansas City’s Sprint Center. For the first time since 2008, the Kansas Jayhawks are not the no. 1 seed. Kansas State and Texas Tech both finished the regular season 14-4 though the Wildcats earned the top seed by way of a tiebreaker. Outside of […]
Opening round action for this year’s Big Ten Tournament gets underway on Wednesday at Chicago’s United Center. This will mark the fourth straight year the tournament is being held at a different venue. Last year’s tourney took place at Madison Square Garden. The tournament went five straight years with two of the top four seeds […]
The PAC-12 Tournament starts on Wednesday as Las Vegas’ T-Mobile Arena. Washington (24-7, 15-3) appears to be the only team assured on an NCAA Tournament berth, though the Huskies rank a very pedestrian 46th according to KenPom. In theory, the PAC-12 could put only one team into the NCAA Tournament and that team would have […]
The ACC Tournament starts on Tuesday in Charlotte, N.C. with the bottom four seeds squaring off in the first round. The top four seeds — Virginia, North Carolina, Duke and Florida State — all have a double bye and don’t play play until Thursday. There are rumblings that the ACC could place nine teams in […]
Sometimes the smaller conferences are neglected by the general public. Invariably, at some point in March you will hear the TV personalities talking about these teams that “came out of nowhere.” This may happen to the average fan, but experienced, knowledgeable bettors have already pinpointed these lesser-known teams who pose a threat to the power […]
Las Vegas’ M Resort announced that William Hill will be replacing CG Technology as the casino’s sportsbook operator starting in May. No reason was given other than CG Technology saying it chose not to renew its lease. William Hill now has 115 Nevada locations. In other Las Vegas sportsbook news, sign up for the Westgate […]
At the recent Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, moderator Jeff Ma and guests discussed the very hot button topic of whether or not sportsbooks kick out sharp bettors. The answer is unequivocally yes. And if they don’t technically “kick them out” they certainly have ways to may life a lot more difficult by slashing limits or […]
As college basketball’s regular season winds down bettors start to shift their attention to conference tournaments. For a majority of leagues, there’s only one bid up for grabs and each year we see a handful of unexpected tourney winners. Let’s take a lot at a few teams that don’t necessarily have stellar regular season resumes […]
College basketball teams can “morph” multiple times throughout a season. Injuries, strength of schedule, and luck — both good and bad — can cause significant statistical swings that force bettors to make a decision on whether or not to believe believe in the “morph” or the larger, season-long body of work. A prime example of […]
A week after Manny Machado inked a 10-year, $300 million deal with the San Diego Padres, Bryce Harper finally found a home as the Philadelphia Phillies agreed to $330 million over 13 years. Leading up to Harper’s signing, the MLB futures market was in limbo. Philly was originally his projected destination but both the Dodgers […]
In college basketball, straight up and against the spread records are fairly correlative. For example, teams that are currently in first place of their respective conferences have covered the spread just over 58% of the time. Teams that are currently in last place of their respective conferences have covered the spread just under 43% of […]
Legalized sports betting in the United State is obviously growing. As of today, eight states offer it while others are knocking at the door. After years of opposition, most sports leagues have come to terms that it isn’t such a bad thing and more importantly can offer additional means of income. But there remains a […]
Wonder why Nevada has been so reluctant to offer betting on events that are voted on? Here’s a prime example. Offshore sportsbooks have long offered odds on the Academy Awards; a little leg work, low limits and voila, a market is created. With newly regulated sportsbooks in the United States trying to mimic the offshore […]
As we charge toward March in college basketball, a major factor in evaluating teams is their ability (or inability) to win games on the road (or in neutral settings). When I take the average of all 353 teams I get a mold that teams should fit in. The average team is 7-4 at home and […]
Yesterday, we told the story of the Drake Bulldogs who currently lay claim to being one of the best point spread covering teams in the country. Today, let’s take a look at the opposite end of the spectrum as the Ohio Bobcats are a money burning 5-19 ATS this season. Like our discussion about Drake, […]
For a vast majority of college basketball teams, their year-to-date against the spread record doesn’t shy more than a few games above or below .500. But each season, a handful emerge as significant money earners and burners. There are generally two types of profiles that consistently reward their backers. The first is what I like […]
The Manny Machado Sweepstakes is officially over following this afternoon’s announcement that the 26-year-old inked a 10-year, $300 million deal with the San Diego Padres. This of course caused some movement in the MLB Futures market. Prior to today, San Diego’s regular season over/under wins total was 76.5. Las Vegas’ Westgate SuperBook bumped it to 79.5 […]
The college basketball regular season is winding down which means a number of factors are now in play. First and foremost, more games tend to take on more meaning due to a push for a postseason berth. Then there is fatigue and injuries as a number of depth-shy teams find themselves literally limping towards the […]
The Alliance of American Football (AAF) gears up for Week 2 action with two games on Saturday and two on Sunday. Most offshore and Las Vegas sportsbooks have posted both sides and totals. Oddsmakers made a noticeable adjustment to Week 2’s totals after Week 1 saw three of the four games go under. The betting […]
The statistical profile of college basketball’s National Champion is almost always impressive, particularly if you look at the final product. With a few exceptions — most notably UConn’s titles in 2011 and 2014 — a majority of National Champions finished the season ranked inside the top 10 in KenPom’s adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. […]
Conference USA has created a way for the top teams to enhance their resumes for the NCAA selection committee. The first seven weeks of the conference season seem very normal. Each team will play every conference team once, with the exception of their travel partner, who they will play twice. Following the initial 14 games, […]
The NBA trade deadline has passed and while Anthony Davis remains in New Orleans there was plenty of action, particularly in the Eastern Conference. Bettors now have the opportunity to adjust their numbers and see how oddsmakers and the betting markets react to the trades. Prior to all of the player movement, the Westgate Superbook […]
Informed bettors can find value by tracking the market moves every day. It provides a great tool for knowing when to bet instead of guessing when to bet. If you believe the market will move you better get down as quick as you can. Conversely, if you disagree with the way the market is going […]
Now that the NFL season has officially concluded, the focal point of the sports betting universe shifts to basketball. We are midway through conference play in college hoops as teams try to position themselves for the “Madness” in March. The goal for most head coaches is to have their teams peaking down the stretch run […]
It’s time to revisit out AAC free throw and totals trend. Three weeks ago, we pointed out the uncharacteristically high amount of league-wide free throw attempts that aided in 19 of 28 games going over the the total. At the time, AAC games averaged 45.7 free throw attempts per game which was an increase of […]
Most sportsbooks will tell you that marquee events like March Madness and particularly the Super Bowl can have a significant impact on their bottom line. For Nevada sportsbooks, Super Bowl LIII was a nice victory. On Monday, the Nevada Gaming Commission announced that the state’s sportsbooks won $10.7 million; a 7.4% hold percentage. That’s a […]
We’re entering the time year where talk of “hot seat” head coaches really ramps up. For some, it’s obvious. For others, a bit more murky. What I do know is spotting “lame duck” head coaches can be a profitable profile the last month of the season. The coaching staff and players aren’t immune to outside […]
Half the battle of handicapping the NBA these days is dealing with injuries and late scratches and additions. No matter how much legwork you do, the team you thought you were betting at 8 am PT can be vastly different than the one at tip-off. A prime example of that was last night’s unexpected return […]
It’s the calm before the storm as we’re now four days out from Super Bowl LIII. Prop bets have once again been all the rage and rightfully so considering there are over 1,000 different options. But what about betting, you know, the point spread of the game? After the initial wave of Patriots’ support, the […]
We’re five days away from Super Bowl LIII and prop bets continue to dominate the headlines. Las Vegas’ Westgate Superbook posted 442 props with over 1,000 ways to wager on the game. As of Monday, their handle on prop bets alone was north of $1 million. According to the Westgate, the most popular prop bets […]
With a little over a month to go with college basketball’s regular season, let’s take a look at some of the more notable under and overachievers based on their preseason and non-conference body of work and how to approach them from a betting perspective moving forward. Underachievers West Virginia Record: 9-11 SU, 6-13-1 ATS […]
Ask any bettor the first thing that comes to their mind in regards to the Super Bowl and the consensus answer is undoubtedly “prop bets.” Born back in the mid-80’s when Las Vegas oddsmakers Art Manteris hung 20-1 on the now famous Refrigerator Perry touchdown prop, they have grown into a behemoth with so many […]
Super Bowl LIII isn’t for another week and a half but the talk thus far has been the movement in the point spread. Following Sunday’s NFC and AFC championships various sportsbooks both offshore and in Las Vegas quickly posted their own line on the game. There were small amounts of varying opinions but the consensus […]
When the NCAA retired the old RPI system in favor of the NCAA Evaluation Tool, or NET, it was welcomed as a step in the right direction. The RPI didn’t take into account margin of victory and treated a one-point win the same as a 40-point blowout victory. It also didn’t take into account game […]
Last night I spotted an interesting statistic regarding the American Athletic Conference on KenPom.com. Of the 32 college basketball conferences, the AAC currently ranks first in free throw rate. Someone obviously has to rank first but the fact that it is the AAC makes it odd. Check out the league’s FT rate the last six […]
It sounds as if New York is eager to join the legalized sports betting party. Legislation is expected to be introduced soon and early reports indicate there’s a “90 percent” likelihood sports betting goes live by the end of 2019. There are currently eight states — Nevada, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Delaware, Mississippi, New Mexico, New […]
The biggest storyline for Sunday’s AFC Championship between the New England Patriots and Kansas City Chiefs has been the weather. An “arctic blast” is expected to move in and drop temperatures into the single digits (note that the game does not start until 5:40 pm local). But while Saturday projects to have snow and wind, […]
All publicity is good publicity, unless you’re hosting the Sports Betting National Championship and manage to botch the whole operation. This past weekend, DraftKings hosted the aforementioned event in New Jersey; a chance for the up-and-coming sportsbook to build its brand. Sports bettors from across the country including BettorIQ’s own Erin Rynning flocked to the […]
Seen a Big XII game lately? If you have, there’s a good chance you saw some very poor offensive play. Heading into tonight’s action, the Big XII ranks 25th out of 32 conferences in offensive efficiency in league play at less than a point per possession. That’s in stark contrast to last year when the […]
We’re still about a month away from pitcher and catchers reporting to spring training but the MLB betting markets are already heating up. Las Vegas’ Caesars Entertainment just posted season over/under win totals. [UPDATE]: Our own Eddie Walls passed along that the limits are $3,000 with a player’s card and $1,000 without. Team – Win […]
With college football now officially over, college basketball will now garner more attention as conference play is in full swing. There are several factors bettors must consider as handicapping conference play is much different than non-conference play. Finding edges in the market can often prove difficult but those discovered can lead to healthy profits. 1. […]
The growth and spread of legalized sports betting in the United States continues to pick up steam. Sportsbooks are popping up left and right. And more and more states are positioning themselves for a seat at the dinner table. What is also taking place is a push to offer a more technologically advanced product. Getting […]
The theory is actually quite simple; since 2002, teams with a higher Strength of Schedule (using Sagarin’s Ratings) went a remarkable 42-22 straight up and 44-19-1 against the spread (70% winners) regardless of point spread and location. Even more amazing is that teams with a SOS advantage of 10 or better went 25-6 SU, 25-5-1 […]
The NFL’s Wild Card round is set to get underway this weekend with two games on Saturday and two on Sunday. Below you’ll find a bettor’s “cheat sheet” with some of the key betting information for all four matchups. Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (Saturday, 4:30 pm EST – ESPN) Colts Betting: 10-6 SU, 8-8 […]
College basketball bettors were treated to an “extra” betting opportunity to start this season. The “extra” teams are now included in the betting lineup. An astute bettor with direct knowledge of these teams has an advantage. Extra games are those involving teams that are from Division I conferences that aren’t always included in the normal […]
Due to LeBron James’ incredible durability, bettors don’t have much to go on in terms of how to properly adjust both the point spread and total in his absence. James recently suffered a groin injury and is currently out with no official timetable for his return. On Thursday, we got a small glimpse as to […]
Bettors are gearing up for the final week of the NFL’s regular season. There will be no Thursday, Saturday or Monday games — the entire league plays on Sunday. Heading into Week 17, nine of the postseason’s field of 12 have been established: New England, Houston, Kansas City, LA Chargers, New Orleans, Dallas, Chicago, LA […]
Two weeks to go in the NFL regular season and 19 teams have either clinched or are live to earn a playoff berth and all but two matchups have playoff implications. Let’s take a look at Week 16’s games and what’s at stake. Washington at Tennessee (Sat.) CRIS Opener: Tennessee -10.5 O/U 37 CRIS Current: […]
‘Tis the season for end of the year lists and one in particular that caught our eye was the SportsBusiness Journal’s “most influential.” Among the top 10 are a bunch of CEOs, chairmen, commissioners, and owners — you know, rich guys with the power to “influence.” But the top spot is a bit of an […]
If you’re wondering whether or not the NFL is on board with the legalization of sports betting in the United States look no further than yesterday’s announcement that the 2020 draft will take place in gambling epicenter Las Vegas. The league also made it known that it is seeking a casino partner. The NBA, MLB […]
The betting markets are a beautiful but at times relentlessly frustrating place. The goal for every bettor is to win and in order to do so over the long term, consistently securing the “best of the number” is paramount. If you are routinely betting key numbers and beating the closing line, you’ll find yourself winning […]
It’s a tad early in the NBA season for an official dumpster fire sighting but smoke appears to be coming from the Windy City. Last Monday, after a 5-19 start, the Chicago Bulls decided to part ways with head coach Fred Hoiberg. Assistant Jim Boylen was officially put in charge though according to one report, […]
Putting in the time and effort to go over every box score gives bettors a huge advantage in betting college basketball. Many times a team will win by 20 and dominate the stats. That box score doesn’t need further examination. Occasionally, the statistics will lead you to uncover a game where the box score really […]
A common theme this college football bowl season has been players sitting out in order to not risk injury and damage their NFL Draft stock. The biggest announcement (thus far) was West Virginia quarterback Will Grier deciding to take a pass on the Camping World Bowl. Grier finished the regular season third nationally in yards […]
Three weeks remain in the NFL regular season which means playoff scenarios will enter into the handicapping equation. Below is a quick breakdown of each team’s postseason status. NFC Dallas Cowboys (8-5) – The Cowboys hold a two-game lead in the NFC East and are all but guaranteed a postseason berth. Remaining Schedule: at Indianapolis, […]
Today marks the completion of the first month of the college basketball season. It’s a perfect time to discuss some betting notes, observations, and things to look for the remainder of 2018. Michigan began the year hovering around the top 25. The Wolverines obviously lost a lot from last year’s squad that finished runner-up to […]
Another aspect of handicapping college football bowl games is coaching changes. A lot of coaches (and coordinators) are on the move this time of year; some of which will stick around while others are already looking to get the ball rolling at their new destination. This of course can have a big impact on a […]
The college football bowl seasons is still more than a week away but with a full market of sides and totals, bettors are hard at work trying to find the edges needed to win. Bowl games are unique compared to the regular season. There’s motivation, disappointment, coaching changes, players sitting to avoid risking their NFL […]
Every summer the painstaking task of pouring over countless teams that in the end, you’ll be lucky to find any betting value takes up a lot of time. But this season was quite different for me as a majority of Power 5 school were adopting a new scheme which we were able to key in […]
In-depth article from ESPN discussing how the offshore sportsbook scene will look moving forward now that legalized sports betting is spreading in the United States. It’s an interesting dilemma for the average recreational bettor that maybe has a few hundred bucks in a BetOnline account. That bettor has or soon will have access to not […]
We’re nearly a month into the college basketball season so let’s take a look at how some of the more prominent first-year head coaches have fared thus far. Tom Crean – The Bulldogs are off to a 4-3 SU, ATS and O/U start under Crean. As expected, the adjustment from Mark Fox to Crean hasn’t […]
With a handful of games in the books for most college basketball teams, it’s fun to take a look at some of the biggest surprises thus far – both good and bad. But from a sports betting perspective, we want to take it a step further and figure out if any of these surprise teams […]
College football’s regular season has concluded. From a personal betting standpoint, it was my second-best season. Instead of recapping what took place last week, let’s walk through some of my observations from the season as a whole starting with the non-Power 5 conferences. We learned so much that can be applied to the postseason and […]
It’s college football championship week with 10 matchups slated for Friday and Saturday. Six of which see teams facing one another for a second time. Below is a breakdown of all of the pertinent statistical and betting information from the first meeting. PAC-12 Championship at Santa Clara Utah vs. Washington -5 O/U 45 Previous Meeting […]
Two weeks into the college basketball season every college basketball fan is aware of Duke freshman Zion Williamson’s immense talent. In fact, Duke is loaded with talented freshmen with the possibility of all three being lottery picks. But I want to discuss some freshmen who have burst onto the scene in a somewhat under-the-radar manner. […]
It’s Week 12 of the NFL season which means a Thanksgiving triple-header! Let’s look at some of the early line moves and betting trends for each game. Chicago at Detroit Westgate look-ahead line: Chicago -3.5 CRIS Opener: Chicago – 4 CRIS Current Chicago -4 Not much movement on this one since the opener. Chicago’s game […]
Early in the week we saw a deadly Ohio Bobcats offense decimate a Buffalo team with two NFL prospects on offense. The 52-17 win showed that Ohio could move the ball on Buffalo at will but also showed a chink in the armor of the Bulls that hadn’t been exposed all season. They simply blitzed […]
The college football regular season is winding down and that means a sizable chunk of teams are still in search of becoming bowl eligible. Bettors will hear the phrases like “must win” or “do or die” and must decided whether or not it’s a worthy angle to consider in their handicap. It’s imperative however to […]
The college basketball season is in full swing with a full slate of games scheduled for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Let’s take a look at some matchups from a betting perspective. St. John’s at Rutgers (Friday) – The up-tempo Scarlet Knights? Rutgers first two games produced 74 and 76 possessions. Not bad for a team […]
A small slate of games are scheduled for this evening as we head into the second week of the college basketball season. We will see a rare National Championship game rematch with Michigan traveling to the pavilion in Philadelphia to take on the Villanova Wildcats. And another great matchup with Marquette headed to Bloomington to […]
Monday night’s Kansas City vs. Los Angeles matchup is no doubt one for the ages as both teams sport NFL-best 9-1 records (New Orleans is 8-1). The game was originally slated to be played in Mexico but due to poor field conditions, it was moved to Los Angeles. For bettors it marks the highest total […]
In the early season, some offensive and defensive units have emerged. While it may be premature to have expectations with such few samples, we can take the past history of coaches to make predictions for the future. As always we can’t play these teams blindly, but we can look for spots where we have an […]
A few weeks back, we discussed the much publicized spike in scoring and pace in the NBA. At the time, totals were an incredible 27-12 O/U. Since then, things have changed considerably. Scoring as of 10/22: 113.3 ppg Scoring as of 11/11: 110.7 ppg Pace as of 10/22: 102.1 Pace as of 11/11: 100.3 Offensive […]
Late on Saturday evening we learned San Diego State, a juggernaut in the Mountain West the past six years who leans on defense and an extremely conservative ball control offense, is capable of losing to anyone. The Aztecs have now played eight consecutive one possession games. Losing as 24-point favorites to UNLV at home was […]
Every week I discuss college football games with a select group of bettors. It amazes me how many complain about a supposed lack of value left on the board in November. This is crazy! There may be a lack of “gifts” and your closing line value goes down some but to this bettor, there are […]
We’re only a couple of days into the college basketball season, but there’s no time to waste for bettors. You have to be proactive in this business. Waiting for confirmation of a trend or opinion will likely cause you to miss it. Here’s what caught my eye so far. The story of day one was […]
It’s opening night for the 2018-19 college basketball season and I couldn’t be more excited. Over the years I’ve adjusted my preseason preparation quite a bit. With the increasing amount of coaching changes and transfers, there are a lot of “unknowns” in terms of how teams will look at play. And the product on opening […]
Early in the week we learned Toledo can win by 30 despite throwing four interceptions. Ball State matched that output throwing two themselves. In a sloppy game I learned Toledo has no pass offense and, if teams can limit that great run offense, they aren’t to be trusted. Buffalo has one loss to a very […]
Following the NBA’s lead, the NHL recently announced a partnership with MGM Resorts International. The deal included sponsorship and data sharing for in-game wagering but does not involve gambling revenue. There was also no word of the NHL seeking any sort of “integrity fee”; a concept other leagues have felt they deserve despite being financially […]
In 2017, second-year head coach Mike White took Florida to the Elite Eight on the strength of the nation’s fifth-best defense. The Gators had length, size, experience, and were well balanced on both ends of the court. Last season, they took a step back. Defensive big man John Egbunu was injured and didn’t play and […]
It wasn’t always pretty, but with one of the youngest lineups and shortest benches in the country, Syracuse reached the Sweet 16 and finished fifth nationally in defensive efficiency. Yes, they spent much of the regular season producing inconsistent results but considering their youth, the Orange’s postseason run gave bettors a good glimpse of their […]
“Nothing will work unless you do.” John Wooden There’s no sport that requires more handicapping effort than college basketball. There’s also no close second. There are 353 Division I basketball teams and 260 of them are lined for each […]
Handicapping college basketball during the preseason involves a lot of work including checking out Ken Pomeroy’s recently released power ratings. Pomeroy commands a lot of respect but he’s not the final word when it comes to point spreads, particularly early in the season. The reason is there are too many teams and too much year-to-year […]
On Tuesday the Sun Belt kicked things off and we learned that Troy has the defense that was advertised all offseason. That defense was on display in bits and pieces throughout the season but we also learned that backup quarterback Sawyer Smith is a highly inefficient passer. South Alabama has very little in the way of […]
In 2017, ESPN’s go-to gambling beat writer David Purdum wrote a story about the impact Ken Pomeroy has on the college basketball betting markets. It discussed Pomeroy’s background and how oddsmakers all but copy his numbers for the betting public. I wanted to take it a step further and breakdown my own experiences and opinions […]
Ken Pomeroy’s website has more metric evaluations of players than you can keep track of. At the bottom of each team page there is a section which shows the team’s depth chart over the last 5 games. This is a very valuable tool in the evaluation of injured players and their inherent value to the […]
As our colleague Erin Rynning pointed out earlier this week, scoring and pace is way up in the NBA. Teams are averaging just over 6 points per game more than last season. Totals were going over well north of 65% prior to last night when bettors witnessed a bit of regression as eight of 11 […]
FanDuel Sportsbook is back in the news, this time for allegedly copying competitor William Hill’s betting literature. William Hill put together a “how to bet” pamphlet for rookie bettors; topics such as how to make a straight bet or parlay. They are suing FanDuel for copying it word-for-word and trying to pawn it off as […]
We’re back with our weekly college football early week point spread move report. This week’s theme is “flipping favorites” as a number of games saw the opening favorite quickly priced as an underdog. Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech CRIS Opener: Virginia Tech -4.5 CRIS Current: Virginia Tech -2.5 Comment: Both teams offset one another by […]
We’ve yet hit the halfway point in the NFL season and it’s abundantly clear the Oakland Raiders are eyeing 2019 and beyond. Prior to the season, Oakland decided to part ways with defensive star Khalil Mack. Earlier this week, they unloaded talented but inconsistent wide receiver Amari Cooper. In return, the Raiders now have three […]
The theme of the first week of the NBA has without questions been scoring and pace. Heading into Monday night, an amazing 27 of the league’s 39 games have gone over the total. Check out some of the offensive statistics thus far compared to last season. 2018 Scoring: 113.3 ppg 2017 Scoring: 106.3 ppg […]
We began the week learning that Herm Edwards has taken a top 20 offense from 2017 and is now among the slowest paced teams in the nation. Averaging only 10 possessions per game, he attempted to out Shaw of Stanford. He fooled me early in the season with what seemed to be an impressive win […]
Sad situation in the world of offshore sportsbooks as 5Dimes owner William Sean Creighton, who goes by “Tony”, was reportedly kidnapped three weeks ago in Costa Rica. Reports state that he’s currently being held for ransom though local police said at this point it was just a rumor. A former bettor, Tony took over at […]
Let’s take a look at this year’s goal scoring trends in the English Premier League. Matchday eight is complete for every club meaning we have a pretty strong understanding how most teams will play. However, there are still a handful of teams that have misleading statistical profiles that we as bettors can take advantage of. […]
Heading into the season, the Arizona Wildcats were expected to contend for the PAC-12 South title. The main reason was simple: Quarterback Khalil Tate was as close to being unstoppable as any player in the country. In 2017, Tate accounted for over 3,000 yards of total offense at a ridiculous 9.0 yards per play. He […]
We’re past the halfway point of the college football season with most teams settled in to their respective power rating. The rest of the campaign however can offer unique betting situations that weren’t readily available in September. Whether it’s a bye week, strength of schedule, injuries, or a coach on the hot seat, plenty of […]
On Tuesday night we learned that Appalachian State is a serious New Year’s contender with a defense that can test anyone and a run game that can stretch the field. Arkansas State, who was predicted to win the Sunbelt prior to the season was dead on arrival settling for field goals. App State eventually found their […]
Tis’ the season for firing as multiple college and pro coaches were recently let go from their respective positions. For bettors that can mean a number of things including the potential for improved play, a change in scheme, or the waving of the white flag as next year can’t come soon enough. Let’s take a […]
Nearly every offshore sportsbook offers in-game wagering. In the case of football and basketball, after most stoppages in play, bettors can bet the side, total, and/or moneyline. Some United States-based sportsbooks offer a similar format (see FanDuel live odds snafu) but at the recent Global Gaming Expo (G2E), executives like William Hill’s Joe Asher think […]
Back in Week 1, the NFL’s five first-year head coaches went a combined 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS. Since then however, the group has been very kind to bettors with a 10-7 SU and 14-3 ATS mark. All told, first-year head coaches are 10-14 SU and 15-9 ATS. Below we check in with each coach […]
When it comes to the expansion of legalized sports betting in the United State, everyone wants a cut. Now that most leagues have softened their stance — or at least realized it’s going to happen with or without their support — they feel as if they should get a piece of the pie. Yesterday at […]
The expansion of sports betting in the United States continues as Scientific Games announced the acquisition of Don Best Sports. It remains to be seen what this means for current clients, specifically from a pricing standpoint. Don Best’s “platinum” odds service currently runs $499 per month while their “gold” package, which offers line moves that […]
Early week college football point spread lines moves aren’t nearly as frequent or significant now that we’ve reached the halfway point of the season. However, oddsmakers and bettors still clash on a number of teams. In the following I’ll break down some of the key moves we’ve seen thus far for Week 7’s games. Appalachian […]
In 2013, the Nations League competition was put in motion. Traditionally, after the World Cup, there was somewhat of a lull in national soccer. The Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) had been trying to fill that void for years. The norm was that powers such as Germany and France would play their ‘B’ teams […]
“Information is king” or so they say in the world of sports betting. An interesting situation occurred late Saturday night. In the hours leading up to the Wyoming-Hawaii game a flood of money came in on the Cowboys. Warriors starting quarterback Cole McDonald missed practice both Tuesday and Wednesday though participated in Thursday’s walk-through. He […]
We all know Alabama is amazing but while the whole world watched them reach new levels of dominance many seemed to overlook the drumming Clemson put on a Wake Forest team that’s much better than Arkansas. How impressive is Ian Book for Notre Dame? Well in his three starts he has looked more and more […]
The NBA season starts October 16 and my prep work has already begun. One thing I like to do prior to each season is look at the futures market to get an idea of each team’s preseason expectations. I do this by looking at regular season win totals. During the offseason there were a handful […]
For those of you who are new to soccer, Europe has a promotion and relegation aspect that is the foundation of professional soccer. This prevents teams from refusing to be competitive and just taking the paycheck they get for being a part of the league. In the NFL, teams like the Cleveland Browns can literally […]
The landscape of sports betting in the United States continues to see sweeping changes. Back in July, Daily Fantasy Sports giant FanDuel opened a sportsbook at New Jersey’s Meadowlands Racetrack. As expected, there were a few hiccups. The first was when bettors attempted to cash in winning tickets on a late night West Coast MLB […]
The NHL drops the puck on the 2018-19 season on Wednesday, October 3. But unless you are a fan of the league, you probably had no idea. With the NFL and college football in full swing and the NBA season right around the corner, the NHL just doesn’t get as much attention from sports bettors. […]
Point spread record are fun to look at and discuss but unless you are using it for a barometer for future performance, they don’t mean a whole lot. When I handicap a college football game, how each team has fared against the spread means next to nothing compared to the in-game matchups. However, every week […]
It’s that again for my weekly thoughts on what transpired over the weekend. We learned that Ohio State might have some magic to a playoff berth. We learned Notre Dame might not need any and Stanford without Bryce Love is a pretty predictable and mediocre looking offense. On Thursday night we learned Miami’s defense can […]
Including two playoff games, the Atlanta Falcons closed out last season with a run of seven straight unders. The trend continued in Week 1 as the Falcons lost a sloppy game to the Eagles 18-12. But since then, Atlanta has turned into an over machine. In Week 2, Atlanta and Carolina combined for 881 total […]
The National Hockey League is unique. Unlike most other major sports, nearly every team has a shot at making the playoffs. And once you’re in the postseason, literally anything can happen on the ice. It’s one of the true beauties of the NHL. Parity reigns and there are always many surprises. The NHL season gets […]
Few teams in the NFL have undergone a bigger power rating spike than the Kansas City Chiefs. Despite posting regular season win outputs of 11, 9, 11, 12, and 10 under Andy Reid, Kansas City was lined at 8.5 wins heading into this season. Through three weeks, the Chiefs have beaten the point spread by […]
The Josh Rosen era is underway in Arizona with the rookie slated to start Sunday’s home game against Seattle. Rosen came in relief of Sam Bradford late in the fourth quarter of last week’s 16-14 loss to Chicago. He finished 4-of-7 for 36 yards and threw an interception. Rosen obviously spent time with the first […]
Lots going on with starting quarterbacks heading into Week 5. We’ll start first with Virginia Tech’s Ryan Willis who now takes over for Josh Jackson. Jackson fractured his fibula during last week’s infamous upset loss to Old Dominion. Willis, who started his career at Kansas, stepped in and went 9-of-18 for 131 yards and a […]
We have our first firing of the college football season as Wake Forest parted ways with defensive coordinator Jay Sawvel. Head coach Dave Clawson made the decision following last weekend’s 56-27 home loss to Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish put up 566 yards of total offense at 7.45 yards per play. That production wasn’t far […]
As we enter Week 5 of the college football season, there is far less movement off of the opening numbers. Oddsmakers now have a good amount of data to go from but there are still a handful of teams the betting markets feel confident are mispriced. Below we discuss some of those teams and take […]
Every week we will see some surprises and of course week 4 was as wacky as it will ever get with Oregon seemingly not content to kneel and losing in overtime. What did we see and learn? We saw bad clock management run rampant. Old Dominion beat Virginia Tech by two touchdowns and Army pushed Oklahoma […]
Last week, a number of college football teams I was still assessing provided answers to how I can approach them from a betting perspective moving forward. For example, Temple’s win over Maryland helped me get to the widow with a winning wager on the Owls’ spread covering 31-17 win over Tulsa last night. Heading into […]
In an unprecedented move, sportsbook giant William Hill has partnered with the NHL’s Vegas Golden Knights. There will now be William Hill ads as well as NHL odds displayed on the video board at T-Mobile Arena. The move couldn’t have come at a better time with the legalization of sports betting expanding throughout the United […]
Things are getting ugly in Pittsburgh. Le’Veon Bell was spotted in Florida on a jet ski. Antonio Brown missed Monday’s practice but is reportedly back with the team. This after he passive aggressively requested a trade on Twitter. He also got into it with offensive coordinator Randy Fichtner during last week’s loss to Kansas City. […]
With each passing week, a college football team’s power rating becomes based more and more on their body of work rather than what was assigned during the preseason. And each year, a handful of teams get off to unforeseen starts that cause their power rating to shift dramatically. This in turn can create “buy low” […]
Week 4 of the college football season means conference play for a majority of the country. Below we take an in-depth look at some of the early week point spread moves and how to approach them from a betting perspective. Louisville at Virginia CRIS Opener: Virginia -3.5 CRIS Current: Virginia -6 Comment: Since Jeff Brohm […]
Many bettors and analysts are shaking their heads and asking themselves who is really good? A number of big upsets will do that. Well we will start in the SEC. Alabama is really, really good and I can start seeing that this is Saban’s best team that I can recall. Alabama has a legitimate offense […]
I’ve been writing a “Stock Watch” article for over a decade. The goal of the exercise is to get ahead of the curve with specific teams. Value comes and goes throughout a season and I’ve always prided myself on spotting it before a majority of the betting markets. Below I’ve isolated two NFL teams who […]
Throughout the week I make countless college football wagers. Shortly after openers are posted I look to take advantage of lines that I’m confident won’t be around very long. Tuesday and Wednesday’s bets are predicated more on research from last week’s box scores and articles. And as Saturday nears, I’ll place a few more bets […]
With Hurricane Florence barreling down on the East Coast the betting markets have been busy peppering games under the total. As of Wednesday afternoon, three games have already been canceled: UCF at North Carolina, East Carolina at Virginia Tech, and West Virginia at NC State. Ohio vs. Virginia was moved to Nashville. There is however […]
Week 1 of the NFL regular season wasn’t kind to first-year head coaches. All seven managed to lose in straight up fashion – five of which in games lined at a field goal or less. And only the Chicago Bears were able to come away with a point spread cover in their 24-23 loss to […]
One of my favorite bets during the MLB season is the Grand Salami. For the uninitiated, the Grand Salami is a wager that takes into account the collective results for an entire slate of games in a given day. The linesmaker simply puts out a line for the Away Teams and the Home Teams, along […]
Bettors are still feeling out a majority of the college football landscape. Reactionary moves aren’t as prevalent as they were heading into Week 2 but there are still those searching for and betting into perceived market inefficiencies. Below we’ll discuss Week 3’s early line moves and how to approach each game from a betting perspective. […]
It might not have been Jimbo that made FSU terrible. His A&M team pushed Clemson to their limits exposing a possibly soft secondary. Meanwhile, FSU struggled to score on Samford for three and half quarters. I watched the FSU game and I can safely say that while Taggert, who is a great offensive mind with running […]
2017 Record: 13-3 2017 ATS: 11-5 2017 Over/Under: 7-9 2018 Regular Season Wins Total: 11 wins The New England Patriots once again outperformed expectations in 2017 with 13-3 SU and 11-5 ATS records. Their point spread success was all the more impressive considering a 2-4 ATS start. Without question one of the most amazing stats […]
2017 Record: 9-7 2017 ATS: 6-9-1 2017 Over/Under: 7-9 2018 Regular Season Wins Total: 7.5 wins After averaging nearly 11 wins per season since 2012, the Seattle Seahawks are projected to take a big step back in 2017. Currently priced at 7.5 wins, the Seahawks are favored in only three games according to Las Vegas’ […]
2017 Record: 5-11 2017 ATS: 9-6-1 2017 Over/Under: 8-8 2018 Regular Season Wins Total: 6 wins The New York Jets’ 5-11 record last season was actually an overachievement based on their ultra-low preseason expectations. The Jets were pegged to be one of the worst teams in the league yet their 9-6-1 ATS record speaks to […]
2017 Record: 6-10 2017 ATS: 9-7 2017 Overs/Unders: 8-8 2018 Regular Season Wins Total: 8.5 wins Everyone is aware of the lead story in San Francisco heading into the 2018 NFL season. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo returns for his first full season with the Niners after finishing last season 5-0 after become the starter. The expectations […]
The betting markets were extremely active Sunday evening and into Monday afternoon with a number of Week 2 games seeing big point spread moves. Below we’ll discuss the reason for the one-sided money and how to approach each game from a betting perspective. TCU at SMU (Friday) CRIS Opener: TCU -17.5 CRIS Current: TCU -21.5 […]
2017 Record: 13-3 2017 ATS: 11-5 2017 Over/Under: 7-9 2018 Regular Season Wins Total: 10.5 wins Well-coached, sound offense, stellar defense, straight up wins (13-3), point spread covers (11-5 ATS)…the Minnesota Vikings did it all in 2017. Now in his fifth season, head coach Mike Zimmer has his squad poised for even bigger things, particularly […]
2017 Record: 3-13 2017 ATS: 7-9 2017 Over/Under: 8-8 2018 Regular Season Wins Total: 7.5 wins Last year’s New York Giants were an embarrassment both on and off the field. Originally projected to be a 9-win team, the Giants fell well short of expectations with a 3-13 record. The lone bright spot was a 4-0 […]
I have historically struggled Week 1 and this season was no different. I missed some things that were elementary but we learn every week from our mistakes and I personally specialize in conference play so each week gives me a lot of perspective. Week 1 is the best week to learn. There are also huge overreactions […]
2017 Record: 7-9 2017 ATS: 7-9 2017 Over/Under: 8-8 2018 Regular Season Wins Total: 7 wins The Washington Redskins endured yet another mediocre season under the ownership of Dan Snyder with matching 7-9 SU and ATS records. In their defense, 2017 was marred by injuries with as many as 20 players on injured reserve. Most […]
2017 Record: 7-9 2017 ATS: 7-9 2017 Overs/Unders: 11-5 2018 Regular Season Wins Total: 10 wins Aaron Rodgers is back healthy and with that the Green Bay Packers are instant Super Bowl contenders. This clearly isn’t a very good football team without Rodgers at the helm. In fact, Green Bay is just 5-12-1 in games […]
2017 Record: 9-7 2017 ATS: 8-7-1 2017 Overs/Unders: 10-6 2018 Regular Season Wins Total: 7.5 wins Inches. That’s how far the Lions came to making the playoffs last season. If not for a touchdown reversal at the end of the game versus the Falcons in Week 3, the Lions probably snatch a wild card spot. […]
2017 Record: 0-16 2017 ATS: 4-12 2017 Over/Under: 7-9 2018 Regular Season Wins Total: 6 One of the worst teams in the modern era, the 2017 Cleveland Browns was a model of ineptitude. They failed to win a single game, covered only four point spreads, were outscored by 176 points, and managed a harrowing -28 […]
2017 Record: 4-12 2017 ATS: 7-9 2017 Over/Under: 7-9 2018 Regular Season Wins Total: 8.5 If it could go wrong, it did for the 2017 Houston Texans. Injuries sabotaged any kind of success with Deshaun Watson, JJ Watt and Whitney Mercilus all lost to season-ending injuries. The much-publicized lack of depth within the organization was […]
There’s a ton of different betting angles bettors can consider for Week 1 of the college football season. One that we like to be aware of is freshman starting quarterbacks, particularly those on teams laying points. It’s not an automatic bet against situation; you will find situations where the rookie quarterback is actually an upgrade. […]
Last week, six FBS teams participated in what is commonly referred to as “Week 0.” With a game’s worth of data and results, there were obvious reactions from the betting markets. Below we’ll analyze all six teams and what’s in store for Week 1. UMass Week 0 Outcome: 63-15 SU and ATS (-21.5) win vs. […]
Despite being stationed in the far tougher Big Ten East, the Indiana Hoosiers acquitted themselves admirably in Tom Allen’s first season at the helm. There wasn’t a much of a step forward with only five wins but Kevin Wilson’s abrupt departure could have spelled doom for a program that struggles to keep pace in the […]
No matter if you are recreational, professional or somewhere in between, preparing for the college football season means the purchase of a preseason annual. There are a bunch out there — some good, some not — and in many cases, you’ll grab two or three. Phil Steele’s Preseason Annual has always been regarded as gambler-friendly […]
Soccer is by far the most popular sport in the world when you look at the sheer number of people watching, playing and betting on it. Every four years, the world is obsessed with the World Cup. The list of highest paid athletes is littered with soccer players. The most valuable sports franchises include a […]
2017 Record: 10-6 2017 ATS: 7-9 2017 Overs/Unders: 5-11 2018 Regular Season Wins Total: 9.5 wins The Falcons offense took a big step backwards in 2017. Conservative play calling and struggles in the red zone were the biggest culprits. Steve Sarkisian took over as offensive coordinator last season and he didn’t fully take advantage of […]
College football sides have been available to bet since late May yet only a handful of games have seen significant lines moves — the number will undoubtedly grow as the week progresses. In the following, we’ll discuss the reason for the one-sided money and how to approach each game from a betting perspective. Akron at […]
In my mid-20’s I discovered the fact that I had been living with a pretty big learning disability. Basically, I have a difficult time absorbing what I read. Re-reading something over and over was obviously time consuming and many times I would get bored and simply give up. After establishing myself as a winning poker […]
Every year the task of evaluating college football coaches, coordinators and players becomes a little easier. Some of it is experience but also the ease in which I’m able to access beat writers, bloggers, and analytics. As recent as five years ago, it was a much more daunting task. Today, the workload is still heavy […]
2017 Record: 13-3 2017 ATS: 7-9 2017 Over/Under: 5-10-1 2018 Regular Season Wins Total: 10.5 The 2017 Pittsburgh Steelers put on a clinic on how the point spread is the ultimate equalizer. The offense, stacked with Pro Bowl talent and playmakers, averaged 378 yards per game which ranked third in the NFL. It helped produce […]
2017 Record: 9-7 2017 ATS: 9-6-1 2017 Over/Under: 9-6-1 2018 Regular Season Wins Total: 8/8.5 Last year’s Baltimore Ravens were an interesting case study. They outscored their opposition by 92 points but were outgained by 20 yards per game. This resulted in the 9th-ranked scoring offense but a pitiful 305 yards per game. How did […]
2017 Record: 8-8 2017 ATS: 6-9-1 2017 Overs/Unders: 6-10 2018 Regular Season Wins Total: 6 Change is the operative word in Arizona for the 2018 season. The Cardinals have completely turned over the coaching staff with new head coach Steve Wilks and a set of new coordinators. They also have several key players returning from […]
Today we wrap up our college football heading coaching analysis (see part 1, part 2 and part 3) with the remainder of the non-power 5 conference first-year hires. Josh Heupel – UFC Grade: B- UCF may have be the most desirable of all of the non-power 5 openings but it won’t be easy following what […]
2017 Record: 9-7 2017 ATS: 9-6-1 2017 Over/Under: 8-8 2018 Regular Season Wins Total: 5.5 wins To the fan base, the Buffalo Bills’ 9-7 record and first playoff appearance since 1999 was a huge success. However, was this a true breakout season for first-year head coach Sean McDermott or a mirage? The reality is, Buffalo […]
Next up on our review of head coaching changes (see Part 1 and Part 2) is our non-power 5 hires. I pay a lot of attention to the smaller conferences. Every oddsmaker and bettor knows that Alabama, Clemson, and Ohio State are extremely good and loaded with talent. But not everyone knows the inner-workings and […]
College football totals are an area where sharp bettors can find a significant edge with the right approach. Handicappers are constantly looking for change. Why? Change leads to opportunities to find an edge. When a team is playing differently than the market has them pegged, the bettors that realize it before everyone else are going […]
Welcome back to Part 2 (see Part 1 of Evaluating College Football Coaching Changes) of our in-depth breakdown of this year’s college football head coaching changes. Today we’ll continue to analyze the changes in the power conferences. Chad Morris – Arkansas Grade: B Out of all 21 first-year head coaches, Morris ranks as one of my […]
There are 21 first-year college football head coaches which provide a lot of opportunities for bettors. Over the course of the next week we’ll break down each hire in-depth and provide recommendations on how you should approach them from a betting perspective. I’ll cover attributes like background, offensive and defensive schemes, pace, and current talent. Today, let’s […]
Los Angeles Chargers Season Over/Under Win Total: 9.5 Play: Under The bar is set high for the Los Angeles Chargers compared to recent campaigns. They haven’t eclipsed this year’s season over/under win mark of 9.5 since 2009. Yes, they did pop for nine wins a season ago after a dreadful 0-4 start. But the betting […]
Degenerate. That’s the first word you often hear when telling your friends that you’re placing wagers on preseason NFL games. But don’t worry about getting mocked for betting on “exhibition” games. The money you earn from cashing tickets during the preseason spends exactly the same as money made during the regular season. There are also […]
It would be an understatement to say that the Phoenix Suns struggled in the 2017-2018 season. A chronic pattern of bad luck permeated the season. The misfortune started on July 20th when it was confirmed point guard Brandon Knight would miss the entire season with a torn ACL. In October, point guard Eric Bledsoe announced […]
College basketball teams are allowed to make an international trip every four years and smart bettors pay attention. These trips can include 10 practices and usually 3-5 games. Not only is this a chance for players to bond and increase chemistry, it also provides a great cultural experience for student athletes. Teams that regularly replace […]
There’s a simple rule in sports betting that the less attention a team or conference gets, the bigger the opportunity for the bettor. The same holds true in the stock market when researching underfollowed small cap stocks versus the popular large caps. It’s just much easier to succeed when there are fewer competitors in the […]
Last year NFL regular season scoring levels dropped off to 43.4 points per game. That was 3.4 ppg less than its peak in 2013. From 2014 to 2016 the league scoring average hovered around 45.5 ppg. Last year’s decline in scoring correlated with a league-wide trend towards the under: 113-135-8 over/under. I’m projecting scoring to […]
Not too long ago, beating college football at a respectable clip required as little as a Phil Steele preseason preview and a few different sportsbook “outs.” The season typically started by supporting teams with lots of returning starters followed by midseason spot- and revenge-type plays. You’d then isolate a few teams playing for a lame […]
I have read almost every gambling book there is, sifted through most gambling forums, searched endlessly on Twitter over the years, and there’s very little useful information on betting volume and bankroll management. There are a multitude of ways to approach these topics, but what they boil down to is simple. Let’s call them the five […]
There isn’t a betting term in the entire industry that rings truer than the “teaser.” Sports bettors have long been enamored with the teaser wager given its flexibility in manipulating the point spread. The most common football teaser bet gives bettors six additional points to work with on two separate games of their choice (commonly […]
Rather than diving into the meditative practices needed to bring down the stress levels bettors endure during the 21 weeks that is the college football season, I want to first discuss the steps I personally take just to create a power number on a team. As a bettor, power numbers are used to compare two teams […]
Sports bettors have long been fans of first-year head coaches because it provides the opportunity to capitalize on change. In the case of college basketball, there were a whopping 55 Division I head coaching changes this offseason — more than 20% of schools. Generally, head coaches don’t make radical year-to-year adjustments to their philosophies. I’ve […]
Take a poll of any recreational sports bettor and they’ll tell you they hit 60% winners. Some will even go so far as to tell you 70% is attainable with a little extra work. The reality is those types of results over the long term are simply unrealistic. However, the good news is one can […]
Attendance at MLS games has increased every year since 2013. Surprisingly, MLS outperforms the NBA and NHL in annual average attendance. The Atlanta United expansion team led the MLS with 48,200 people per match in their inaugural season. The Seattle Sounders had been solidly on top since 2009. Expansion is warranted in MLS, and the […]
“Tell me what is going to happen in the future, not what took place in the past,” is a mantra most successful sports bettor follow. For every insightful gambling related Tweet I come across, there are 20 that spit out some meaningless trend or mythical high return parlay bet that no one actually made. But […]
2017 Record: 5-11 2017 ATS: 8-7-1 2017 Overs/Unders: 4-12 2018 Regular Season Wins Total: 6.5 wins The day after the 2017 regular season ended, John Fox was fired after three seasons at the helm for the Chicago Bears. No single off-season move was more important for Chicago. Fox was a train wreck during his tenure […]
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