Betting Markets Start to Form for Trump Impeachment
Where there’s a will, there’s a…betting market. In the wake of all of the Donald Trump impeachment talk, a few sportsbooks have posted odds on whether or not it will occur. Impeachment obviously doesn’t happen on a regular basis. Only two presidents — Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton — have suffered the fate. It’s also important to understand that just because you’ve been impeached doesn’t mean you’re expected to leave the premise by the end of the business day. That said, the markets that have been created show there’s a legitimate chance this whole thing goes down.
Over at PredicIt, a New Zealand-based political prediction market, the current price on Trump being impeached by the end of his first term is 62 cents, i.e. a 62% probability. Prior to the discovery that Trump and Ukraine were in cahoots, the price was 30 cents.
Euro heavyweight Paddy Power is a bit more tepid, pricing the “yes” and “no” on impeachment at 10/11 or -110.
Bovada meanwhile has the “no” as -155 chalk and the “yes” a +125 underdog. Perhaps Bovada still remembers the 2016 election that saw Trump go from a massive underdog to a favorite.