College Basketball Betting Free Pick: lllinois Fighting Illini at Purdue Boilermakers
CBB FREE PICK: Illinois Fighting Illini at Purdue Boilermakers
#606 UNDER 126.5 (Tuesday, January 21 @ 7 pm EST)
The betting markets continue to fire on Purdue overs and continue to go home empty handed. If not for two games that reached overtime, the Boilermakers would be 0-7 O/U in Big Ten play this season. If you were to draw up the perfect under team, it’s likely to look a lot like this year’s version of Purdue: Snail’s pace on offense, stout defense to bog down opponents, sub-par offense with little to no transition game, and members of a conference where most teams possess at least two of those three attributes.
Illinois’ stats, especially in Big Ten play, aren’t that far removed from Purdue’s. The Illini are 10th in offensive efficiency, 5th in defensive efficiency, and 11th in pace. This probably isn’t how Brad Underwood envisioned his teams to look but by embracing the “Big Ten way”, Illinois is 5-2 in league play with four wins against teams currently inside KenPom’s top 25.
What makes Purdue such a great under team is even when they score 1.18 points per possession like it did vs. Michigan State, the game still went under the total by over 20 points thanks to a stellar defensive showing. Perhaps a few overs will eventually come in but we’ll take the data (and the extra four points) over the “due factor” every time.