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College Basketball Betting Free Pick: Clemson Tigers at Miami Hurricanes

Photo Credit: Washington Post

FREE PICK: Clemson Tigers at Miami Hurricanes

#804 Miami +3 (Wednesday, February 13 @ 7 pm EST)

The Miami Hurricanes have played a ridiculously unbalanced ACC schedule thus far. They’ve played eight games against teams that are currently above .500 in league play vs. only three against teams below .500. It’s a big reason why the Canes sit an unimpressive 2-9. They’ve however been playing sneaky good basketball of late despite little to no depth. Two Saturday’s ago they went to Virginia and battled in a 56-46 loss. They returned home and dominated Notre Dame 62-47. And last weekend, went to Chapel Hill and outplayed North Carolina in a 88-85 overtime loss. The Tar Heels needed to shoot 13-of-26 from three to escape with a victory.

Clemson’s season has been extremely formulaic: beat who you’re supposed to and fail to step up in class. The Tigers’ most impressive ACC win came at home last weekend as they limped past an injury-riddled Virginia Tech squad 59-51. Prior to that it was wins against ACC bottom feeders Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, and Pittsburgh. Miami could arguably be lumped into that mix but again, if the schedule was a little more balanced, the Canes would be a lot better than 2-9.

This is a classic case of market overreaction. Clemson’s recent schedule has been favorable and produced five straight point spread covers. Now they find themselves laying -3 on the road against an opponent that is better than advertised. Note the low total which suggests this is likely to be a one-possession game late. Take the home underdog.

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