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MLB Betting Free Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres

FREE PICK: Arizona Diamondbacks (Weaver) at San Diego (Paddack)

#958 UNDER 6.5 (Monday, May 20 @ 10:10 pm EST)

It’s early, but it appears that St. Louis Cardinals may have given up on Luke Weaver a bit too soon. Weaver was one of the main pieces in the offseason trade that sent slugger Paul Goldschimdt to St. Louis. A year removed from posting a near 5.00 ERA, Weaver has thrived in Phoenix with a 3.16 ERA and 3.10 FIP through nine starts. Coming from the right side, he’s an excellent fit in Petco Park vs. San Diego’s right-hand heavy lineup. Against left-handed pitching, the Padres rank a respectable 15th out of 30 MLB teams in wRC+ at 99. Against righties, 23rd with a far worst wRC+ of 82.

San Diego counters with a stud of its own as Chris Paddack has rolled through the league early on. The big righty sports a 1.99 ERA and a near 10 K per 9-inning rate. Some of a Paddack’s peripherals are a bit on the fortunate side, most notably a .179 BABIP. And for the first time, he’ll face a team for a second time after allowing 1 earned run over 5.1 innings vs. Arizona back in mid-April. But the time to look to take advantage of Paddack’s “juiced” status in the betting markets is down the road when the Dodgers get a crack at him for a third time or a warm weather start in Coors Field. Like Weaver, tonight sets up well for another dominant outing.

Offshore markets were quick to take the opener of 7 down to 6.5. A few 7’s with juice remain including a handful on Las Vegas. Regardless, expecting runs to be at a premium in San Diego tonight.

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