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MLB Betting Free Pick: Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox

FREE PICK: Detroit Tigers (Boyd) at Boston Red Sox (Sale)

#931 Detroit +1.5 R/L (Tuesday, April 23 @ 1 pm EST)

Editor’s Note: Monday’s game was canceled due to weather. With the same pitching matchup slated for Tuesday afternoon, Advantage Group still recommends a play on Detroit +1.5 R/L.  

Boston’s Chris Sale had this to say after his last start:

“I’m not gonna sugar-coat it, I flat-out stink right now,” he told reporters afterward. “I don’t know what it is… I gotta find a way to pitch better. This is flat-out embarrassing.”

The start resulted in an 8-0 loss to the rival Yankees one in which Sale allowed seven hits and four runs over five innings. The lone positive was Sale’s missing velocity returned though he still struggled with command. Heading into tonight’s game vs. Detroit, the Red Sox are 0-4 -7.2 units in Sale’s starts.

Detroit’s Matt Boyd has been a pleasant surprise thus far. Boyd owns a 2.96 ERA and even better 1.65 FIP over four starts. He’s been a bit lucky with only one home run allowed during that span with his new found ability to miss bats (36 strikeouts) makes him a viable option, especially at tonight’s price.

Tonight’s weather at Fenway Park is expected to be pitcher friendly with the wind blowing in and light rain — hence the total being bet down from 8.5 to 7.5. We think the better route is to remain firm in our anti-Sale stance. The fact the his velocity returned and the struggles continued strongly suggests there may be some underlying issue. The play is on Detroit.

Advantage Group

Advantage Group (formerly Otto Sports) has built its reputation on emphasizing a low volume, high winning percentage approach. The results in college football over the last three seasons are unmatched: 80-39 67% +59.475 units of profit on a 1, 1.5, and 2-unit scale. During that span, nickel bettors took home $26K after service fees. Also impressive is the group’s college basketball track record since 2015: 119-83 59% +32.7 units of profit. Advantage Group also owns strong results in the NBA (800+ plays, 55% winners over the last decade) and NFL (55% since 2012).