Type to search

MLB Betting Free Pick: Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins

FREE PICK: Los Angeles Angels (Skaggs) at Minnesota Twins (Berrios)

#910 UNDER 5 1st 5 Innings (Monday, May 13 @ 7:40 pm EST)

It’s been enjoyable to watch the development of Minnesota’s Jose Berrios. Last year he really came into his own with nearly 200 innings and a near sub-4.00 ERA. But this season, he’s appeared to take the next step by showcasing much improved command. Berrios’ walk rate per nine innings is a staggering 1.35 and while his strikeout rate has slightly dipped, he’s coupled his immense talent with efficiency and the ability to go deep into games. Berrios hasn’t walked a batter in three starts and they all resulted in comfortable wins. He’s straddling the line of being a tad fortunate with 41 hits allowed in 53.1 innings (.243 BABIP) and a 87.4% LOB rate, but tonight’s matchup against the soft-hitting Angels doesn’t project to be all that taxing.

Despite a rough outing last time out, we remain believers in Tyler Skaggs who has shown an uptick velocity (92 mph last three starts). Keep in mind that last season, Skaggs fanned over a batter per inning and finished with a very respectable 3.63 FIP. He’s always been an enigma due to injuries but when healthy, he grades out as an above average left-handed AL starter. Minnesota’s has been a tough lineup to navigate thus far but Skaggs should be aided with Nelson Cruz unlikely to play due to a wrist injury.

With both bullpens having been worked hard the last two days, we’ll focus our attention on a first 5-inning wager on the under.

Advantage Group

Advantage Group (formerly Otto Sports) has built its reputation on emphasizing a low volume, high winning percentage approach. The results in college football over the last three seasons are unmatched: 80-39 67% +59.475 units of profit on a 1, 1.5, and 2-unit scale. During that span, nickel bettors took home $26K after service fees. Also impressive is the group’s college basketball track record since 2015: 119-83 59% +32.7 units of profit. Advantage Group also owns strong results in the NBA (800+ plays, 55% winners over the last decade) and NFL (55% since 2012).