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MLB Betting Free Pick: Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees

FREE PICK: Seattle Mariners (Leake) at New York Yankees (Happ)

#915 OVER 9.5 (Thursday, May 9 @ 6:35 pm EST)

New York’s JA Happ has seen a very noticeable decline in both his fastball velocity and strikeouts compared to last season. In 2018, while pitching for both the Blue Jays and Yankees, Happ flashed a near 10 K per 9 rate to go with a sub-4.00 ERA, FIP, and xFIP. This year, Happ’s K-rate is down to 6.3 and it’s played a significant role in his ERA and FIP’s currently hovering around 5.00. His “hard hit” rate of 38.7% is a career worst and outside of a favorable situation in San Francisco in which Happ through 7 scoreless innings, he’s been extremely hittable.

Seattle Mike Leake is who he is at this point in his career. Amazingly, Leake is only 31 years old and too his credit, has been one of the most consistent pitchers in MLB (eight straight years with a FIP between 3.8 and 4.2). The problem is when Leake gets hit, he gets hit hard. We mentioned Happ’s hard hit rate at 38%. Leake’s is currently 44.9% — nearly 10 percent higher than his second-worst season and the fifth-worst rate in MLB. It’s resulted in a whopping 11 home runs allowed over 40.1 innings. Leake doesn’t have much of any experience at Yankee Stadium with a lone start coming back in 2014. New York obviously has a couple of key left-handed bats out of the lineup that could give Leake real problems but this still isn’t an ideal matchup or ball park for Leake’s soft-tossing ways.

We’ve seen some under money thus far with the total played down from 9.5 to 9.5un-120. Doubt any 9’s pop up but even at 9.5, the over is worth some sort of wager.

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