MLB Free Betting Pick: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds
FREE PICK: Chicago Cubs (Hamels) at Cincinnati Reds (Gray)
#902 Under 5/Under 9 (Friday, June 28 @ 7:05 pm EST)
Cincinnati’s Sonny Gray has certainly enjoyed his move to the National League. Gray’s K-rate is currently at a career-best 10 per 9 innings while his ground ball rate sits at a very healthy 55%. In terms of overall performance, Gray has been consistently “solid” having allowed three runs or fewer in 13 of 15 starts; the other two he allowed four runs.
Cole Hamels has been nothing short of fantastic with a sub-3.00 ERA and 52% ground ball rate. It’s amazing production for a 35-year-old considering how well the ball travels these days. He’s a tough matchup for Cincinnati who ranks well below MLB average vs. lefties with a dismal 87 wRC+.
The Reds have been one of the strongest under teams in MLB with a record of 27-49 O/U. And despite playing in a hitter-friendly park, totals are 13-22 O/U with 7 of the last 8 going under. The reason is simple; Cincinnati’s starting pitching and bullpen are two top 10 units while the offense ranks 25th in MLB at 4.3 runs per game.
Weather is going to be warm but two very capable starters on the hill who when on, generate a lot of ground ball outs. The one slight concern is the Cubs’ bullpen which has been worked heavy of late (15.1 IP last 4 games). As a result, we split our bet in half (5-inning/full game under).