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NBA Betting Free Pick: Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Clippers

FREE PICK: Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Clippers

#548 UNDER 235 (Thursday, April 18 @ 10:30 pm EST)

One constant throughout the Steve Kerr era has been a focused effort off of a loss, particularly on the defensive end. Since Kerr took over in 2014-15, the Warriors are a very strong 43-61 over/under (58.7%) off of a straight up loss. This year, they’ve been even stronger at 8-16-1 O/U. And going back to last season’s playoffs, the Warriors lost five times and were a perfect 5-0 to the under the next time out (90.4 ppg allowed). The logic behind the trend is simple: Golden State has a tendency to mail in the occasional game but is so talented that “flipping the switch” isn’t as difficult as it is for the rest of the NBA. Tonight certainly qualifies as a “flip the switch” opportunity after Game 2’s historical meltdown in which the the Clippers stormed back from 31 points down to steal the victory. Also note the loss of DeMarcus Cousins (quad). Golden State shouldn’t have trouble making up for Cousins’ offense but the insertion of Kevon Looney and Andrew Bogut into the rotation does offer more in the way of defense. Game 2 got bet heavily over the total but Game 3 has seen a few clicks towards the under. Agree with the move as a more “game” effort from the favored Warriors helps us cash our under ticket.

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