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College Football Betting Free Pick: Pittsburgh Panthers at Penn State Nittany Lions

CFB FREE PICK: Pittsburgh Panthers at Penn State Nittany Lions

#119 Pittsburgh (Saturday, September 14 @ Noon EST)

Expecting a far better showing out of the Pittsburgh Panthers on Saturday after losing at home to in-state rival Penn State 51-6 last season. The box score was not nearly as lopsided as the final score as the Nittany Lions held a modest 390-300 total yardage advantage and seconds before halftime, the score was only 7-6. Note too that PSU closed as a -7.5 road favorite and is now being asked to lay -17.5 despite losing a handful of key players including quarterback Trace McSorley and running back Miles Sanders.

Despite two seemingly easy wins and point spread covers to open the season, the verdict is still out on the Nittany Lions. They beat up on FCS bottom feeder Idaho in Week 1 and last week were outplayed by Buffalo in the first half before a few non-offensive touchdowns snowballed into a blowout.

Pitt meanwhile faced two very capable foes to open the year. In Week 1, they ran into an ultra-tough Virginia squad. Had it not been for a -2 turnover margin, the score likely would have been closer than 30-14. And last week, the Panthers showed well in a 20-10 win over Ohio. Pitt was able to outgain the Bobcats 481-212.

The current number for this game suggests that gap between the two squads has widened since they met early last season. We’re not sure that is the case. While we didn’t make much of an adjustment to Pitt heading into the season we did downgrade Penn State slightly. And through two weeks, we haven’t had reason to make any sweeping changes to each team’s power rating. As a result, catching +17.5 offers some value.

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Advantage Group

Advantage Group (formerly Otto Sports) has built its reputation on emphasizing a low volume, high winning percentage approach. The results in college football over the last three seasons are unmatched: 80-39 67% +59.475 units of profit on a 1, 1.5, and 2-unit scale. During that span, nickel bettors took home $26K after service fees. Also impressive is the group’s college basketball track record since 2015: 119-83 59% +32.7 units of profit. Advantage Group also owns strong results in the NBA (800+ plays, 55% winners over the last decade) and NFL (55% since 2012).