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College Football Betting Free Pick: Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Cincinnati Bearcats

CFB FREE PICK: Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Cincinnati Bearcats

#339 Tulsa +17.5 (Saturday, October 19 @ 3:30 pm EST)

In terms of the AAC, Tulsa has arguably the toughest schedule of any team. The Golden Hurricane have already faced the likes Michigan State and Oklahoma State as well as upstart SMU and a very improved Navy squad. And somehow, things are going to get even tougher with a trip to Cincinnati followed by Memphis, Tulane, and UCF — all upper-tier AAC squads. But despite playing a tough slate, loaded with teams on the rise, Tulsa is much improved too. The fact that the Mustangs outgained (and outplayed) SMU 500 (6.6 ypp) to 440 (4.8 ypp) is a very positive sign. Now last week was just a nightmare of a situation with Tulsa off narrowly beating SMU and forced to face Navy’s option. The outcome was in hindsight not all that surprising as the Midshipmen cruised to a 45-17 win. Again, if you step back, Tulsa has been pitted up against one of the best defenses in the country (Michigan State), two of the highest scoring offenses in the country (Oklahoma State and SMU), as well as an option team. That’s some tough sledding.

This weekend won’t be easy either as Cincinnati has looked to part and some since getting shutout against Ohio State with four straight win and covers. But the Bearcats were a bit fortunate in its latest two wins over UCF and Houston. Against the Knights, Cinci was outgained by 82 yards but benefited from a +3 turnover margin and produced a similar result against downtrodden Houston who outgained the Bearcats but coughed up the ball a whopping five times.If Cincinnati doesn’t post a combined +7 turnover margin in those two games, they likely go 1-1 and 0-2 ATS.

The other key here is point spread value. A few weeks back, Cincinnati closed -17 at home vs. Miami-Ohio and led only 7-0 before scoring a touchdown right before half. Tulsa meanwhile closed +12 at SMU only to lose in overtime. We have Cincinnati as -2.5 vs. SMU on a neutral field which again shows that this number is a tad rich.

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