College Football Betting Free Pick: Vanderbilt Commodores at Tennessee Volunteers
CFB FREE PLAY: Vanderbilt Commodores at Tennessee Volunteers
#351 Vanderbilt +22 (Saturday, November 30 @ 4 pm EST)
This week’s free college football pick comes out of the SEC. The Vanderbilt Commodores (3-8) take on the Tennessee Volunteers (6-5). You can find the line on this game at Tennessee -22 at most sportsbooks. The Commodores have had a very disappointing season. With just three wins this season (only one in SEC play), Vanderbilt is likely ahead of only Arkansas in terms of SEC talent. None of their three wins this season has been very impressive. They defeated a bad Missouri team by seven, a struggling MAC team in Northern Illinois by six and a 3-9 East Tennessee State squad last week, 38-0.
Vanderbilt’s offense is one of the worst in the country. They are 123rd in scoring and 121st in yards per play. They are equally bad in both passing and rushing as they rank 115th and 111th respectively. Their defense is better than their offense, but only slightly. They still rank 102nd in points allowed per game. Vanderbilt is 81st against the pass and 109th against the rush. They are 116th in yards per play allowed.
Tennessee has had the better season and will participate in a bowl. However, they really aren’t that good of a team either. The biggest win for the Volunteers this season was against Kentucky, who is just 6-5 this season. In their six wins this season, their opponents’ combined record is just 27-30. Kentucky is the only team above .500.
The Volunteers are 101st in points scored per game. They have a better passing attack (71st) than rushing (103rd), although neither is very impressive. The Tennessee defense is fairly solid. They are 37th in points allowed per game and they are one of the better pass-defending teams in the country (23rd). Considering the majority of their opponents are run-heavy teams, that number is less impressive.
Despite how bad Vanderbilt has been this season and the fact that the Tennessee defense is a solid unit, the Volunteers should not be more than a three-touchdown favorite against a fellow SEC opponent. The only time Tennessee won by that much this season was against Chattanooga and UAB. This will be an ugly game that sees two stagnant offenses and a lot of punting.
Vandy is no stranger to losing seasons yet they’ve consistently shown up for this in-state rivalry. In fact, they’ve won three straight and are on a 6-1 ATS run. Tennessee may be poised to snap the losing streak but covering over three touchdowns isn’t a high percentage play. Take the underdog.