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UFC 238 Betting Free Pick: Alexa Grasso vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz

FREE PICK: Alexa Grasso vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz

#24229 Grasso +105 (UFC 238, Saturday, June 8 @ Chicago)

In a battle of women’s strawweights, up and coming prospect Alexa Grasso (10-2) squares off against veteran Karolina Kowalkiewicz (12-4). Karolina is 33 years old and appears to be on the decline having lost four out of her last five fights. She is a skilled striker but her lack of killer instinct cost her in a recent defeat against Michelle Waterson. Before that she got brutally KO’d by Jessica Andrade. Being knocked out in that manner can have an lingering effects both physically and mentally. Grasso meanwhile hasn’t fought in over a year because of injuries; most recently her knee. She’s only 25 years old and has shown signs of her youth in previous losses to Tatiana Suarez and Felice Herrig. She was outmatched in terms of strength in those two losses but won’t have to worry about that against Karolina. This fight will most likely play out on the feet and that’s where I believe Grasso has the advantage. She owns a two-inch edge and possesses heavier hands. I believe Grasso will get the win by decision or possibly with a knockdown and some ground-and-pound. We have the younger and hungrier fighter in Grasso, and we are getting a plus price. The line has dropped quit a bit from the opener, but I still see value with the underdog Grasso.

Brandon Wittmeyer

Brandon Wittmeyer is a professional gambler in Las Vegas and has earned a living doing so for the last 15 years. He specializes in college football, college basketball, NFL and mixed martial arts. He also educates and advises others on many gambling topics including sports betting and poker. Brandon is featured occasionally on the Vegas Sports Information Network (VSIN) and you can hear him on podcasts regularly. He has written for Card Player magazine in the past about betting and poker strategies. His poker resume includes winning a World Series of Poker Bracelet and a WSOP Circuit Ring.