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UFC 239 Betting Free Pick: Diego Sanchez vs. Michael Chiesa

Photo Credit: UFC.com

UFC 239 FREE PICK: Diego Sanchez +300 vs. Michael Chiesa

#24317 Sanchez +300 (Saturday, July 6 @ 7 pm EST)

Diego Sanchez (29-11) is 37 years old and doesn’t seem to be slowing down as he takes on Michael Chiesa (15-4) in Saturday’s welterweight tilt as Las Vegas’ T-Mobile Arena. Diego comes in on a two-fight winning streak with victories against Craig White and Mickey Gall. Sanchez was the betting underdog in both wins and is once again a big dog for Saturday night. These odds are too high, and the value is once again on Sanchez. Mickey Gall is 10 years Sanchez’s junior and couldn’t handle his relentless attack in their last fight in which Sanchez blitzed the younger fighter and finished him with ground-and-pound. Chiesa is 31 years old and will be the bigger fighter come fight night as well as having a 3.5-inch reach advantage. Sanchez however will move forward the whole fight and has an enormous gas tank for an older guy. He’s a pure savage. It’s worth noting here that Chiesa has 11 submission wins in 15 victories. Sanchez on the other hand has never been submitted in 40 professional fights though his chin has been questionable as he’s gotten older. Chiesa meanwhile has remarkably never won a professional fight by knockout. This is one more advantage for Sanchez. Generally speaking, you’ll see many fights like this where you have an older fighter taking on a younger fighter and the youth is typically well respected in the betting markets. Sanchez is a legend in the sport and will be inducted into the UFC Hall of Fame Friday night for his classic fight vs. Clay Guida in 2009. It’s unusual to see a fighter receive an award and then turn around and fight the next day so it’s something to keep in mind when handicapping the fight. All signs point towards Sanchez from a value stand point and it looks like there is still some fight left in this old dog. Chiesa has the ability to win by decision, but with Sanchez’s motor and relentless never-die-attitude he’s very live.

Brandon Wittmeyer

Brandon Wittmeyer is a professional gambler in Las Vegas and has earned a living doing so for the last 15 years. He specializes in college football, college basketball, NFL and mixed martial arts. He also educates and advises others on many gambling topics including sports betting and poker. Brandon is featured occasionally on the Vegas Sports Information Network (VSIN) and you can hear him on podcasts regularly. He has written for Card Player magazine in the past about betting and poker strategies. His poker resume includes winning a World Series of Poker Bracelet and a WSOP Circuit Ring.