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UFC 241 Betting Free Pick: Derek Brunson vs. Ian Heinisch

UFC 241 FREE PICK: Derek Brunson vs. Ian Heinisch

 #24417 Derek Brunson +125 (Saturday, August 16 @ 10:05 pm EST)

The hard throwing Derek Brunson (19-7) has been fighting in the UFC since 2012 and at the age of 35 still feels he has a lot to prove.  He’ll have a stiff test come Saturday night when he faces off against rising star Ian Heinisch (13-1).  Brunson has been training with champion Kamaru Usman and looks great physically after posting a picture on his social media.  The bookmakers opened this fight incorrectly by posting a line of -200 in favor of Heinisch which was immediately corrected by the market.  Brunson is a very inconsistent fighter with poor fight IQ but possesses all the necessary skills to beat the younger fighter in this matchup.  Heinisch has poor take down defense and if Brunson utilizes his wrestling, he could very likely win this fight.  That’s a big “if” though because Brunson likes to stand and bang and as a result of this, he’s been knockout several times in fights.  Heinisch on the other hand has good scrambling ability and a decent head on his shoulders so far in his young MMA career.  He’s relentless and fights smartly but my numbers say this fight is a toss-up.  Brunson did fight a lot smarter recently against Elias Theodorou and used his wrestling to secure a victory.  The underdog has a massive 7-inch reach in this fight as well which is astounding. If Brunson fights strategically and takes advantage of the holes in the young fighter’s game, there’s no doubt he can win this fight. At the current odds of +125 that gives us an implied probability of almost 45%.  But even after the big line move there’s still value on Brunson.  If you continuously put your money in situations where you feel the fight is a coin flip and you can get better than +110 you will make money in the long run.  By no means is this a slam dunk because of Brunson’s poor decision making in fights.  Training with a champion and elite wrestler like Usman is a good indication that Brunson may fight more wisely in this matchup.  

 

Brandon Wittmeyer

Brandon Wittmeyer is a professional gambler in Las Vegas and has earned a living doing so for the last 15 years. He specializes in college football, college basketball, NFL and mixed martial arts. He also educates and advises others on many gambling topics including sports betting and poker. Brandon is featured occasionally on the Vegas Sports Information Network (VSIN) and you can hear him on podcasts regularly. He has written for Card Player magazine in the past about betting and poker strategies. His poker resume includes winning a World Series of Poker Bracelet and a WSOP Circuit Ring.