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UFC 245 Betting Free Pick: Jessica Eye vs. Viviane Araujo

UFC FREE PICK: Jessica Eye vs. Viviane Araujo

#24446 Araujo -175 (Saturday, December 14)

This fight features two of the top women in the flyweight division. Jessica Eye ranks second in the world and faces off against fifth-ranked Viviane Araujo. As handicappers you can’t look much into rankings because we see Araujo,  the lower ranked fighter, favored to beat the higher ranked Eye in this matchup. Sporting a 14-7 record, Eye is coming off one of the more brutal knockout losses we’ve seen in a June bout against Valentina Shevchenko. This is something we must take into account because we have seen in the past fighters never look the same again after a devastating KO loss. They often fight very conservative and sometimes scared because they don’t want to be embarrassed on national TV again. Most importantly the head trauma and damage that may have been caused. If you haven’t watched the replay go back and watch that fight last June between Shevchenko and Eye. She took a lot of punishment from that head kick. Eye isn’t all that impressive anyways, although she fights competitively, she is only 4-6 in the UFC and two wins were close split-decisions.

Araujo 8-1 and 2-0 in the UFC I believe will hold the advantage come Saturday night. She’s the faster and more well-rounded fighter and has taken significantly less damage in her career. Her striking is light years ahead of Eye and it wouldn’t surprise me if she finishes her. Here are a few concerns I do have though. This will be Araujo’s first fight in the U.S. plus Eye trains in Las Vegas and will have the home crowd advantage. They both have faced one common opponent in Alexis Davis. Araujo beat her unanimously last July and Eye lost a split decision back in 2014. The Brazilian fighter Araujo will have a two-inch reach advantage and in a fight that I predict will play out more on the feet that gives us an advantage. If this fight does go to the ground, I wouldn’t be worried. Four her wins have come by submission. Araujo will have the advantage everywhere when it comes to MMA in this matchup and at odds of -180, we have value on her. I give her about a 75% chance to beat Eye which suggests she’s closer to a -300 favorite. Bet Viviane Araujo to win Saturday night in Las Vegas.

Brandon Wittmeyer

Brandon Wittmeyer is a professional gambler in Las Vegas and has earned a living doing so for the last 15 years. He specializes in college football, college basketball, NFL and mixed martial arts. He also educates and advises others on many gambling topics including sports betting and poker. Brandon is featured occasionally on the Vegas Sports Information Network (VSIN) and you can hear him on podcasts regularly. He has written for Card Player magazine in the past about betting and poker strategies. His poker resume includes winning a World Series of Poker Bracelet and a WSOP Circuit Ring.