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UFC Fight Night 197 Betting Free Pick: Tyron Woodley vs. Gilbert Burns

UFC FREE PICK: Tyron Woodley vs. Gilbert Burns

#24201 Burns +150 (Saturday, May 30 @ 9 pm ET)

The fourth UFC event since the Coronavirus pandemic began is scheduled for the night of Saturday, May 30th. Headlining the event will be Tyron Woodley and Gilbert Burns in what should be a highly entertaining Welterweight bout. In a card that features 11 total bouts, our free pick for this event comes out of the main event. 

Our main event of this card will be a Welterweight bout between two American fighters in Tyron Woodley and Gilbert Burns. Two of the top seven Welterweights in the world, this fight will carry a lot of weight in deciding who future title contenders will be. 

Woodley is coming off of a loss to Kamaru Usman back in March of last year. Woodley lost his Welterweight title in a fight that Usman dominated from the opening seconds. A rebound win here could possibly get him in talks for a rematch. 

Burns is on a five-fight win streak that features both a knockout and submission victory. He is perhaps one of the hottest fighters in the UFC at this time and enters this fight with all of the momentum while Woodley comes back after a lengthy layoff. While Woodley hasn’t fought since March of 2019, Burns fought just two a couple of months ago in March of this year. 

Burns is a BJJ black belt and a solid wrestler. He has the better ground game than Woodley, who is five years the elder in this bout. While Burns comes in an inch taller than Woodley, Woodley actually has the three-inch reach advantage. Woodley may have the advantage in power but Burns has the edge elsewhere. 

Unfortunately for Woodley, Burns shares the same camp as Usman, so Burns will have a big tactical advantage here. You can be sure that Burns and his camp will try to put up the same kind of fight that Usman did against Woodley last year. Considering how uncomfortable Woodley looked throughout that entire fight, he may be in for another rough bout this weekend. 

Burns is making a run at the top of the division and has the momentum on his side. However, Woodley is the -170 favorite here. Woodley is 38 years old and may still have a year or two of top level fighting left. The question is which Tyron Woodley will we see Saturday? The one who still wants to contend for a Welterweight title or one who thinks he is in for an easy payday against a fighter seven spots below him in the rankings? 

The UFC is not something you can be half into and half out of. Woodley spent a lot of time in the past 14 months away from the UFC working on outside interests such as a music career. All of this while Burns was climbing his way up the Welterweight rankings. 

The value on Burns here is too good to pass up. At a +150 underdog, Burns is the better all-around fighter, has all of the momentum and should take care of business on Saturday. 

Brandon Wittmeyer

Brandon Wittmeyer is a professional gambler in Las Vegas and has earned a living doing so for the last 15 years. He specializes in college football, college basketball, NFL and mixed martial arts. He also educates and advises others on many gambling topics including sports betting and poker. Brandon is featured occasionally on the Vegas Sports Information Network (VSIN) and you can hear him on podcasts regularly. He has written for Card Player magazine in the past about betting and poker strategies. His poker resume includes winning a World Series of Poker Bracelet and a WSOP Circuit Ring.