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UFC on ESPN 4 Betting Free Pick: Sam Alvey vs. Klidson Abreu

UFC FREE PICK: Sam Alvey vs. Klidson Abreu

#24233 Sam Alvey +150 (Saturday, July 20 @ 6 pm EST)

Thirty-three-year-old Sam Alvey (33-12) takes on 26-year-old Klidson Abreu (14-3) in a light heavyweight bout at 205 pounds tonight. Alvey, a savvy UFC vet, sports a 10-7 record in the organization. He wins 58% of his fights by knockout and packs a very heavy punch. He has a total of 19 KO/TKO wins in his career as well as three wins by submission. Alvery has fought most of his career at middleweight but fought up at light heavyweight the past few fights and is on a two-fight losing skid in his new weight class. Both stoppages were controversial and a bit early in my opinion which has created value. Abreu is a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt with 10 of 14 victories coming by submission. I re-watched his last fight against Magomed Ankalaev and Abreu showed a solid head kick and overall is a big guy for the division. Klidson had his nose broken in the first round of that fight and was compromised the rest of the way — something to keep an eye on entering this matchup. I suspect Alvey to swing early and often and attack the head and face. Alvey has a two-inch reach advantage and always fights hard and rarely quits. Alvey has only been submitted once (2010) and has very good grappling skills. I suspect he’ll hold his own in the clinch and keep this fight standing. In the end, I’ll side with the more experienced and proven fighter at a plus price.

Brandon Wittmeyer

Brandon Wittmeyer is a professional gambler in Las Vegas and has earned a living doing so for the last 15 years. He specializes in college football, college basketball, NFL and mixed martial arts. He also educates and advises others on many gambling topics including sports betting and poker. Brandon is featured occasionally on the Vegas Sports Information Network (VSIN) and you can hear him on podcasts regularly. He has written for Card Player magazine in the past about betting and poker strategies. His poker resume includes winning a World Series of Poker Bracelet and a WSOP Circuit Ring.