College Football Betting Free Pick: Florida International vs. Toledo
FREE PICK: Florida International vs. Toledo
#217 Florida International +6 (Friday, December [email protected]:30pm EST)
First off, I do not promote shortcuts or angles of any kind. However, fading the MAC in general during bowl season has been a goldmine for some time now. I do believe the conference is improving fast and the talent is becoming more and more superior every year. But there are teams in the MAC who are simply too young, or must select scheme and system over anything else due to short rotations and talent pools.
Toledo lost all of their talent at once in 2018. They won the MAC in 2017 with their all-conference quarterback and the most experienced back seven in the MAC and a defensive lineman who now plays on Sundays. 2018 was a reload.
Toledo has a fairly special head coach in Jason Candle and he realized early in 2018 he had a shootout team. His Rockets were completely young on defense. They also had a freshman quarterback to go with two potential NFL Wide receivers and a great set of running backs. Toledo had the 19th best run offense in the nation and subsequently the 93rd worst defense in the nation. They went 7-5 but their best win was back in Week 3 versus Nevada. They lost five games with the 89th most difficult schedule in the nation. They lost by a lot to Buffalo, Fresno, Northern Illinois (hard to get blown out by them and they achieved it) and Eastern Michigan. I’m not certain they’re the better team here, let alone a touchdown better.
Florida International shocked the world in 2017 by winning seven games in Butch Jones’ inaugural season. He would lose his four-year starting quarterback and his defensive line. Sure to regress! We sit here in December and FIU was a fourth quarter away from playing for a conference championship and finished with eight wins. They increased their offensive output with a MAC transfer quarterback from Bowling Green (James Morgan) and a former quarterback turned running back led the team in rushing yards.
This team has almost no defensive flaws and excelled in field position advantage. The Panthers have been recruiting south Florida and are starting to create quite the separation with other non-power 5 programs. They have a talent advantage and experience advantage, special teams advantage and quarterback advantage. I’m happy to grab points in what should be a fairly high scoring game but I believe one team has chance to stop the other. I’m not certain Toledo can stop anyone, even in a big spot.
Grab the six with the Panthers here in the Bahamas Bowl.
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