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College Football Betting Free Pick: Marshall Thundering Herd at Boise State Broncos

CFB FREE PICK: Marshall Thundering Herd at Boise State Broncos

#304 UNDER 56.5 (Friday, September 6 @ 9 pm EST)

This play is an in-the-trenches total. There is a tad of a misconception from Boise’s record setting performance against fast-paced Florida State who allowed the Broncos to run 110 plays and churn out over 621 total yards.

Marshall doesn’t possess a Kendall Briles offense and head coach Doc Holliday has no intentions of getting into shootouts on the road with sophomore quarterback Isiah Green who doesn’t handle pressure well. In order for Marshall to win or keep this game close they need to get big performances from their all-conference linemen and the running back duo of Brendon Knox and Tyler King. Marshall has limited options in the passing game as they replace receiver Tyre Brady (Jaguars) and an all-conference slot receiver from a year ago.

Holliday is a defensive guru has always prided himself on having stingy run defenses — 8th nationally in 2018. They also have an established pass rush led by defensive end Channing Hames and a bevy of senior linebackers and d-linemen. The secondary boasts three three returning starters as well including all-conference corner Chris Jackson.

Boise State has something in 2019 that’s particularly interesting. I believe they are the only non-power 5 team with all five offensive linemen (100+ career starts) back from a year ago. Bryan Harsin had to love what he saw out of freshman quarterback Hank Bachmier in Week 1 (30-of-51, 407 yards). But if Marshall forces Boise to attempt 51 passes they will be down a ton in the first half and that’s extremely unlikely.

Boise has a size differential on offense that’s impressive and what was lost at Florida State for exactly one half is that this may be Harsin’s best defense; one that could grade out better than 90% of the country by the end of the season. The stop unit blanked FSU for the entire second half and returned to the identity that won them 10 games each of the last two seasons.

Defensive end Curtis Weaver is an NFL pass rusher and he’s joined by three all-conference defensive backs. The front seven remains intact after ranking 20th against the run despite playing in the run-heavy Mountain West. Harsin is absolutely loaded on defense and the only way Marshall can win this game is running the ball effectively and staying out of third-and-long.

The overreaction to the Florida state game has bought us a couple of points to play tonight’s game under.

After producing a remarkable 85-49 63% record in 2018, Eddie Walls is looking for more winners and profits in 2019. Get Week 2’s 2-unit BEST BET right here!

Eddie Walls

Specializes in small conference games and finds value in both sides and totals. Professional gambler who always gets the best of the numbers. Can give you a full strength and weakness report on all 130 college football teams, coaches, coordinators and players over a large sample size.