NFL Betting Free Pick: Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
NFL FREE PICK: Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
#275 Detroit +3.5 (Monday, October 14 @ 8:15 pm EST)
Under the new Mike Patricia regime in 2018 the Lions season was off the wrong foot from the start eventually leading to a 6-10 campaign. However, this season feels much different. The Lions were able to bring in a few players to fit their system like Trey Flowers and a couple drafts under their belt as well. In Patricia’s second year ‘buy in’ would linger as a crucial aspect. Now off to a 2-1-1 SU and 3-1 ATS start, the Lions are moving forward in a positive way under Patricia. From the New England Patriots coaching tree Patricia is well-versed on the ‘bend don’t break’ style of defense. The Packers will have to work the field for their points on Monday night, while the loss of Davante Adams will make that task much more difficult. The Packers run game that carried them to victory last Sunday in Dallas will face a much more up-hill battle against the Lions broad front. Meanwhile, with Darrell Bevell the new offensive coordinator the Lions have made it clear they want to develop a power running game. Kerryon Johnson is the right back to carry out the plan, while off to a slower start this year he averaged 5.4 YPC last season in 10 games. In fact, the Lions offense faded last year, but keep in mind the injuries to Johnson, Marvin Jones, while Matthew Stafford battled a bad back. Their run game offense fits well against a Packers defense that prefers to play dime and nickel packages. The Packers were fortunate last week against the Cowboys with a +3 turnover ratio, but importantly still allowed a staggering 532 yards. The Packers also commanded the game last week from the start neutralizing the Cowboys run-attack. The Lions are actually ascending this season as they get inside the number against the Packers in a close, hard-fought divisional battle.