NFL Betting Free Pick: Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys
NFL FREE PICK: Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys
#474 Dallas -3 (Sunday, October 6 @ 4:25 pm EST)
The schedule cranked-up for the Cowboys last week with a trip to New Orleans that resulted in a humbling 12-10 lose. Their offensive line was controlled by the Saints defensive front as the Cowboys toiled with just 45 yards rushing and 257 total yards. However, keep in mind the Cowboys were favored in New Orleans by just under a field goal, while the Saints have been the best team in the NFC the last two years. Yes, the Cowboys strength of opposition was suspect in their first three games, still they averaged 179 yards on the ground and 481 yards of total offense. Key in this match-up in Dallas’ ability in the power run game that matches perfectly against the Packers’ weak run defense. The Packers rank 27th in run defense in 2019 while finishing 23rd last year. Their roster simply doesn’t own the personnel to stop the run, while they prefer to play nickel and dime defense. The motivated Cowboys’ offense will establish the run, which eventually opens the flood gates for their versatile offense. Meanwhile, the jury is still out on the Packers’ new offense and the marriage of Aaron Rodgers and Matt LaFleur. Over their first three games the Packers averaged a troubling 289 total yards per game, before perking up in a 34-27 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. In that game it was All-Pro receiver Davante Adams stepping up with 10 catches for 180 yards on 15 targets. Unfortunately, due to a toe injury suffered against Philadelphia, he’ll be unavailable for the Packers in this contest. Undesirably for the Packers the remaining cast is largely unproven, much like the LaFleur offense. The clear value in the match-up lies with the hometown Cowboys.
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