College Basketball Betting Free Pick: Fresno State Bulldogs at Utah State Aggies
FREE PICK: Fresno State Bulldogs at Utah State Aggies
#829 Fresno State +6.5 (Wednesday, January 9 @ 9 pm EST)
I really like both Fresno State and Utah State — especially both first-year head coaches. Utah State’s Craig Smith came over from South Dakota and walked into a real good situation with a bunch of veteran returnees. Same deal for Justin Hutson who was a long time San Diego State assistant. You look the Mountain West and you have Nevada at the top — even though they lost the other day to New Mexico — and these two teams in the next tier. As for tonight’s matchup, Utah State opened -5 and was bet up to -6.5. I think that number is a bit rich. You look at both teams and with the exception of the two head coaches and a few transfers for Fresno that have stepped in as rotation players they are very similar to last season in terms of personnel. But we’ve seen a big shift in the point spread. USU was +1.5 vs. Fresno at home last year and won in overtime. Later that season, the Aggies were +8.5 on the road and won by three. Now, the markets are saying there’s been around an 8-point separation. I’m not seeing that. Utah State’s home court is well regarded but not worth 6.5 points and I have these teams powered rated extremely close. There’s value in this very capable underdog.