College Basketball Betting Free Pick: Memphis Tigers at Temple Owls
FREE PICK: Memphis Tigers at Temple Owls
#610 UNDER 158 (Thursday, January 24 @ 7 pm EST)
Memphis is off to a surprising 4-1 start to AAC play thanks an explosive offense that produced 85, 78, 83, and 83 points in its four wins. In fact, Memphis has gone over two months and lost only one game; a 90-77 road loss to a very strong Houston team. But the schedule is about to start getting tough. Memphis’ four league wins came against Wichita State, East Carolina, Tulane, and SMU — arguably the four weakest teams in the AAC. Starting tonight, the Tigers travel to Temple, home vs. UCF, and then back-to-back road games against Tulsa and South Florida. Needless to say, a few losses are forthcoming. Temple is also 4-1 and have gone over the total in six straight though I’m not convinced this is an over-type team. Yes, they are playing a tad faster and have shown more offensive ability compared to last season but the baseline total for this team is still in the low 140’s. Now you obviously need to adjust for tonight’s up-tempo opponent, but 142 to 158 is a pretty significant jump. And while Memphis is obviously super fast on offense, defensively, they throw out a lot of looks — press, zone, etc. — to slow opposing teams down. In the end, not only will you need plenty of pace in this one — I’m not sold that Temple is going to be willing to play at Memphis’ pace — but you’ll also need some pretty good efficiency as well to cash an over. As a result, I see some value looking the other way.