College Basketball Betting Free Pick: Ole Miss Rebels at South Carolina Gamecocks
FREE PICK: Ole Miss Rebels at South Carolina Gamecocks
#622 South Carolina +2.5 (Tuesday, February 19 @ 7 pm EST)
This is one of those not-so-fast point spreads as Ole Miss finds itself laying -2.5 at South Carolina tonight. The Rebels have done wonderful things under the watch of first-year coach Kermit Davis including four straight wins and three straight point spread covers. But with that success has come some serious inflation. Keep in mind, two weeks ago, the Rebels were 4-4 in SEC play having lost five of six. Let’s look at Ole Miss’ road prices vs. the SEC: at Vanderbilt +1.5, at Mississippi State +5, at Alabama +1, at Florida +5.5, at Georgia -2.5, and at Auburn +8. You’ll notice the only “chalk” situation came against a team that is 1-11 in conference play.
South Carolina has an identical 8-4 SEC record though with a far tougher strength of schedule. Seven of the Gamecocks’ 12 SEC games came vs. teams currently in KenPom’s top 30 including four games against Tennessee, LSU, and Kentucky. Those games are important to note because three of the four were on the road and three of the four were significant blowout losses that really skewed USC’s statistical and power rating profile. Yes, this is flawed team, one that has a nasty of habit of falling behind and needing to rally back. But when you look at the SEC as a whole, I see Tennessee and Kentucky as 1-a and 1-b followed a group of five or six teams — Ole Miss and South Carolina included — with little to no separation from one another. Ole Miss’ overall body of work may be more impressive but not enough where they need to be laying over a bucket on the road vs. a comparable foe.