College Football Betting Free Pick: LSU Tigers at Mississippi State Bulldogs
CFB FREE PICK: LSU Tigers at Mississippi State Bulldogs
#379 LSU -17.5 (Saturday, October 19 @ 3:30 pm EST)
In terms of the SEC, not sure there is a bigger red flag than losing to Tennessee. Prior to beating Mississippi State, 20-10, the Vols were outscored 87-17 vs. Florida and Georgia. The Bulldogs may be 3-3 and may get to a bowl thanks to a few winnable games (Abilene Christian?!?!) down the stretch but the state of the program is not good and it starts with that status of head coach Joe Moorhead who appears more and more unsuited for a gig in the rough and tumble SEC. In fact, reports are widespread that Moorhead may leave and take over at Rutgers. Thanks to the groundwork Dan Mullen laid, Moorhead was able to lean on a stout defense in his first year and guide the Bulldogs to a respectable 8-5 record. Playing six ranked teams, MSU allowed only 4.1 ypp. This season, they’ve played only one ranked team (Auburn) and head into this weekend having allowed 6.2 ypp. And as luck with have it, Saturday’s foe has arguably the best offense in the country.
The lone concern with LSU is that it’s very hard to sustain maximum effort for an entire season in the SEC. And if there was ever to be a letdown, it could come on the heels of a blowout win over Florida and Auburn and Alabama on deck. But the class difference is too hard to ignore. Keep in mind that Mississippi State has actually had a favorable SEC schedule, especially with Kentucky, Auburn, and Tennessee all possessing below league average passing attacks. LSU is averaging nearly 400 ypg through the air with a team QB rating of over 200. And on the flip side, it’s hard to trust Mississippi State’s offense (267 total yards vs. Tennessee) to score enough, even in the event of garbage time. There’s been some anti-LSU money in the market due to the precarious spot but even a B-level effort should be good enough to cover this number. I played both first half -10 and was able to sniff out a -17.