MLB Betting Free Pick: Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins
FREE PICK: Houston Astros (McHugh) at Minnesota Twins (Perez)
#914 UNDER 9 (Wednesday, May 1 @ 8:10 pm EST)
With a loaded rotation, Houston’s Colin McHugh enjoyed quite the 2018 season tossing out of the bullpen. In 58 appearances, the veteran right-handed flashed a sub-2.00 ERA and a sexy11.7 K per 9 rate. But with Charlie Morton and Dallas Keuchel gone and Lance McCullers on the shelf, the Astros are hoping McHugh can can provide serviceable innings as a back-end starter. The results thus far have been more hit than miss. Outside of a disastrous 9 earned run outing in Texas, McHugh has performed admirably and his ability to miss bats has carried over from the bullpen with 37 punch outs in 32 innings.
After making some offseason adjustments to his repertoire and gaining a few ticks on his fastball, Minnesota’s Martin Perez was promoted from the bullpen to the rotation. The key for Perez has been a newly adopted cutter that has neutralized right-handed batters — something Houston has a handful of and something Perez struggled with in season’s past as last year righties posted a .347 BAA. The results thus far have been solid as Perez owns a 3.00 ERA over three starts.
Two pretty good offenses to contend with as the Astros and Twins rank first and fourth, respectively, in wRC+. But I grade both starters as currently better than the market’s perception. And tonight’s weather, overcast and high 40’s, should aid in keeping the offenses held in check.