FREE PICK: Los Angeles Angels (Tropeano) at Oakland A’s (Montas)

#972 Oakland -1/2 runs 5-inning line

It can be frustrating when the betting markets get wise to an up-and-coming pitcher. Oakland’s Frankie Montas was a -125 home favorite vs. the Los Angeles Angels his first start of the season. Two starts ago he was nearly a -200 road favorite vs. Detroit and now a -175 home favorite in his second turn against the Angels. He’s certainly deserving of a power rating increase; 10 starts and 2.40 ERA and 2.75 FIP. The markets were on him early but you’ll notice today’s moneyline hasn’t budged due in large part to the aforementioned inflation.

LA’s Nick Tropeano is your classic “4-A” pitcher; good enough to stick with an organization but unlikely to become a full-time starter. He had Tommy John surgery in 2016 and dealt with shoulder issues last season. And while you have to take some of the stats Triple-A pitchers are posting with a grain of salt due to the switch to MLB baseballs and hitter friendly venues, Tropeano’s 7.66 ERA over five starts doesn’t offer much in the way of confidence for this bettor.

This is a massive starting pitching mismatch and with Oakland’s bullpen, particularly the key arms of Treinen and Trivino worked hard of late, let’s look at the 5-inning line and play Oakland -1/2 run at the more manageable price of -125.