MLB Betting Free Pick: New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers
FREE PICK: New York Mets (Matz) at Milwaukee Brewers (Woodruff)
#909 New York +123 (Friday, May 3 @ 8:10 pm EST)
Outside of a historically bad outing on April 16 in which he allowed six earned runs and failed to record a single out, New York’s Steven Matz has been nothing short of lights out. In his five other starts, Matz allowed six earned runs over 29.1 innings and a sparkling 29-6 K-to-BB ratio. Tonight he’ll face Milwaukee for a second straight time after posting a 7-inning, 2 ER effort last week. After making some adjustments earlier this season season coupled with a healthy arm, Matz grades out as one of the better left-handed starters in the National League.
There’s things to like about Milwaukee’s Brandon Woodruff most notably the 38 batters he’s fanned over 31.1 innings. That of course puts him as “better” than his 5.17 ERA in the eyes of most bettors. But Woodruff has walked a fine line thus far. Despite a high K-rate, he’s allowed 49 baserunners. And among starting pitchers, his line drive and hard hit rates are among the highest in MLB. And the 53% groundball rate he allowed last season has dropped to 37%. So while Woofruff’s BABIP and FIP make it seem as if he’s been unlucky, his true talents probably lie somewhere in between.
Still waiting for word on Christian Yelich who has missed four straight games due to a back injury. Reports indicate he’ll return today or tomorrow. Even with him in the lineup, I still give Matz the starting pitching edge making the +123 price tag a worthy investment.