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MLB Betting Free Pick: Seattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals

FREE PICK: Seattle Mariners (Gonzales) at Kansas City (Junis)

#922 Kansas City +100 (Tuesday, April 9 @ 8 pm EST)

It’s early but few MLB starters have been as fortunate as Seattle’s Marco Gonzales thus far. In three starts, the soft-tossing lefty has garnered only 16 swinging strikes and 11 strikeouts. A whopping 68 balls have been put in play including 38 in the air and only two have left the yard. And while velocity isn’t a big part of Gonzales’ game, he’s noticeably down compared to last season. In the end, he currently owns a healthy 3.20 ERA but alarmingly high 4.89 xFIP. Kansas City’s Jakob Junis may not have the stellar ERA (4.63) but he actually pitched fairly well in his first two starts with 14 strikeouts and only one home run over 11.2 innings. Junis, who is essentially a two-pitch pitcher, isn’t always an ideal matchup vs. AL Central opponents but with a plus breaking pitch, he’s a decent fit vs. team unfamiliar with his repertoire. With the exception of Edwin Encarnacion (15 ABs, .133 BAA) the rest of the Mariners have only 23 combined ABs. And overall, current Seattle hitter haven’t had much in the way of success with a combined .105 BAA vs. Junis. Seattle has pounded out 42 runs over its last four games against some pretty soft starting pitching (Home Bailey, Ivan Nova, Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez). Junis may not get bettors overly excited but I give him the edge over Gonzales and worthy of a even money wager.

Andrew Lange

With significant market influence, Andrew Lange has produced a decade-long 58% winning rate on over 750 selections in college basketball. Using a low volume, high return approach, Lange's results in the NFL have been equally impressive with a 61% mark and over +49 units of profit on a 1, 1.5, and 2-unit scale since 2012.