MLB Betting Free Pick: Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers
FREE PICK: Tampa Bay Rays (Morton) at Detroit Tigers (Turnbull)
#970 UNDER 5/UNDER 9 (Wednesday, June 5 @ 7:10 pm EST)
Detroit’s Spencer Turnbull has been able to parlay a plus slider (15th among qualified starters) into some success in his first season as a full-time MLB starter. The former 2014 second round pick currently owns a 2.84 ERA while striking out nearly a batter per inning and healthy 48% ground ball rate. He’s allowed three runs or fewer in all but one start and more importantly has yet to getting really “lit up” in any of his 12 starts which is tough to do for someone with limited service time. Realistically, Turnbull’s ERA is likely to climb to around 4.00 should he remain healthy as the league begins to get a second and third look but I’ve been impressed with his consistency and ability to avoid trouble.
Tampa’s Charlie Morton may be 35 years old but doesn’t have a ton of mileage due to injuries early in his career. Win-Loss record is obviously a flawed stat but the fact that Morton is 35-10 over his last three seasons speaks to the quality stuff he possesses, even at an advanced age. This season, Morton continues to do what’s made him successful and that’s miss bats (11 per 9) and generate ground balls (52%). It’s almost too good of a matchup tonight as the Tigers rank dead last in MLB with a 75 wRC+ vs. righties.
Detroit’s shaky bullpen makes playing the full game a bit dicey though they are fairly rested. I ended up splitting my bet on under first five and full game.