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College Basketball Betting Free Pick: Virginia Cavaliers at North Carolina Tar Heels

Waz’s CBB Free Picks

FREE PICK: Virginia Cavaliers at North Carolina Tar Heels

 #856 UNDER 140.5 (Monday, February 11 @ 7 pm EST)

We’ve got a huge matchup tonight in Chapel Hill as North Carolina hosts Virginia. The Cavaliers are coming off of their second loss of the season to Duke 81-71 on Saturday afternoon. The Tar Heels won 88-85 in overtime against Miami in a hard-fought contest two days ago. I expect far fewer points to be scored tonight than what both teams experienced over the weekend. First off, Virginia was ambushed by Duke from behind the 3-point line. The Blue Devils shot 13-21 from behind the arc and they’re ranked 285th in the nation on accuracy from downtown on the season (clearly this was their best shooting performance of the season). Virginia was also forced to play a little bit faster than usual because they trailed by 6-10 points for virtually the entire game.

North Carolina prefers to play up tempo and get out in transition as many times as they can. But Virginia is one of the best at stopping transition baskets. Something has to give, right? A quick look into the recent series history points us to how this game should play out. Four of the last five matchups have gone UNDER the total, but that’s not what is impressive. The margins are what really stick out to me. In the four games that went UNDER, it covered by 19.5, 29, 35 and 24.5 points. They weren’t even close to touching the number. North Carolina was able to get one of those last five matchups to go over the total, but that was in last year’s ACC Conference Tournament, where scoring has been up significantly in recent years (and it went over by just 8.5 points with both teams shooting the ball extremely well). I expect a tight, low scoring affair that goes well UNDER the total tonight.

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