MLB Betting Free Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs
FREE PICK: Los Angeles Dodgers (Buehler) at Chicago Cubs (Hamels)
#962 UNDER 8 (Wednesday, April 24 @ 8:05 pm EST)
When the Chicago Cubs acquired Cole Hamels in the middle of last season, they weren’t expecting him to be a legitimate ace. But since joining the team, Hamels has been elite as he’s posted a sub-2.50 ERA over 16 starts. All of his peripherals immediately improved upon arriving to Chicago – the most glaring a huge reduction in his walk rate. We’ve seen similar improvements when pitchers go from the AL to the NL, so this isn’t a complete surprise. The betting markets aren’t fully believing in Hamels return to dominance, however. Most of his totals have been mispriced and the UNDER is 11-5 in his 16 starts with the Cubs. He faces a Dodgers team that is currently leading the NL in runs scored. However, Los Angeles has hit righties significantly better than lefties this season (and last year as well).
Walker Buehler made a huge splash onto the scene last season when he posted a 2.62 ERA in 24 games in his rookie season. The Dodgers right-hander was tabbed by many as a potential Cy Young dark horse coming into the 2019 campaign. Buehler is off to a rough start, with a 5.40 ERA in his first four starts. However, that’s terribly misleading as he has a 3.12 FIP and has just been hit hard when runners have been on base. The market has soured on Buehler just a bit, but he’s one of the top 10 pitchers in the NL despite his struggles. He’ll face an inconsistent boom or bust Cubs lineup that has several guys struggling at the plate (most notably stars Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo).
I don’t expect to see very many runs in Wrigley Field tonight. This UNDER looks to be almost a half run too high and that’s significant given how key the number 7 is for totals. Play UNDER here.