MLB Betting Free Pick: Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies
FREE PICK: Milwaukee Brewers (Woodruff) at Philadelphia Phillies (Eickhoff)
#953 Milwaukee -120 (Tuesday, May 14 @ 7:05 pm EST)
Since David Stearns took over as General Manager, the Milwaukee Brewers have been a great “bet on” team. Milwaukee backers have earned over 46 units of profit over the last 2+ seasons – tops in the MLB over that time frame. The Brewers have been great at identifying market inefficiencies and are a team that is better than the sum of its individual parts. Stearns learned from Houston Astros General Manager Jeff Luhnow, who is regarded as one the best in the business. It seems that the market has underrated the Brew Crew once again this season. Despite playing the most difficult schedule in baseball to date, Milwaukee is 24-18 for +5.4 units of profit against the closing line (and even better versus the opening line).
On Tuesday, Brandon Woodruff gets the ball for Milwaukee. Woodruff has quietly posted some of the best peripheral numbers in the National League this season. He comes in with a 2.85 FIP and a dominating 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings versus just 2.5 walks. He’s been unfortunate with a .385 BABIP, which has driven his ERA up to an undeserved 4.25. That will surely improve. He’ll go up against a first place Phillies team in this one. While the Phils have played well, I don’t think it’s sustainable for a couple of reasons. First of all, they don’t play fundamentally sound defense. They are just 23rd in the league in park-adjusted defensive efficiency and I don’t think that’s going to get any better. The Phillies have also benefited from the second-easiest schedule in MLB so far. While they have taken advantage of their opponents, things get much tougher over the next few weeks with series against the Brewers, Rockies, Cubs, Brewers (again), Cardinals and Dodgers next. I would be surprised if they post a winning record during that gauntlet. The Brewers are the better team here in just about every area of the diamond and that’s where our money will be.