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MLB Betting Free Pick: St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets

FREE PICK: St. Louis Cardinals (Flaherty) at New York Mets (deGrom)

#956 New York Mets -140 (Thursday, June 13 @ 7:10 pm EST)

After missing out on the postseason in three consecutive years, the Cardinals were picked by many to bounce back and win the NL Central this season. Part of that rationale was the addition of two huge pieces in the off-season in first baseman Paul Goldschmidt and reliever Andrew Miller. But both veterans have played below their norm and the Cardinals have struggled to stay at the .500 mark (33-33 coming into today). Starting pitching has been a sore spot for the Cards and that goes for today’s starter Jack Flaherty as well. The young right-hander was expected to have a big year but currently owns a sub-par 4.08 ERA in 68.1 innings of work. His effort last time out versus the Cubs was one of his worst performances of the season. He gave up four earned runs in 3.2 innings and failed to record a single strikeout (three walks). He’ll face a Mets offense that has swung the bats really well of late. The Mets have averaged 5.9 runs per game in their last seven contests.

Jacob deGrom gets the ball for New York. Last year’s Cy Young winner hasn’t been able to match the ridiculous numbers he put up last season. But something has clicked for him over the last month or so after a very tough April (4.85 ERA). He has allowed more than two runs just once in his last eight starts overall. Over that stretch, deGrom has posted a 2.72 ERA and a 51-10 K-BB ratio. That’s still not as good as last year’s incredible numbers, but he’s heating up. In deGrom’s last outing versus the Rockies, he struck out 10 batters in six innings versus one walk (allowed two runs on six hits). Last year, this line would have been north of -150. deGrom hasn’t fallen off that sharply, so I think there’s plenty of value at this price point. And finally, I would expect some of the Cardinals players had a little bit of fun celebrating the Stanley Cup win for the Blues last night. It’s not a huge factor, but every little edge matters when you’re handicapping baseball. Take the Mets to get this one.

Eric Waz

Waz has been a successful professional sports bettor since moving to Las Vegas in 2010. His comprehensive approach to sports betting includes quantifying the impact of factors that can be difficult to evaluate (scheduling, injuries, coaching, etc.). He’s developed several cutting-edge handicapping tools that are now available at BettorIQ. Waz won the 2011 NFL Last Man Standing title ($86,000) at Station Casinos by beating out over 4,200 entrants. He has also notched 5 cashes in 7 years in the prestigious Westgate NFL Supercontest. Get on board with a true professional sports bettor with a proven track record.