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College Basketball Betting: Power Conferences Unders Have Been a Goldmine

CBB

The college basketball regular season is winding down which means a number of factors are now in play. First and foremost, more games tend to take on more meaning due to a push for a postseason berth. Then there is fatigue and injuries as a number of depth-shy teams find themselves literally limping towards the season’s finish line. “Second meets” are also something to consider as teams often face each other for a second time in conference play. And as Ken Pomeroy points out, the average pace of games continues to drop though offensive efficiency hasn’t witnessed its annual uptick. Add them all up and it has led to some very unappealing, low scoring basketball. This past weekend, 16 power conference (SEC, ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, PAC-12, Big East and AAC) teams failed to crack the 60-point barrier. Millionaire coaches, four- and five-star recruits, state-of-the-art facilities and support staffs and this is all you can come up with? And with the widespread amount of offensive ineptitude littered throughout power conferences it shouldn’t come as a shock to see how they’ve performed from an over/under perspective this season. Amazingly, all seven leagues have trended under the total. Disclaimer: For the sake of time, I used Covers’ O/U results and admittedly did not sift through and eliminate the “doubled up” results when teams play one another. Nevertheless, the results are still staggering. Note too, and this is a project for another day, the O/U results are based on the entire season. I’m extremely confident the rate of “unders” in conference-only play would be even stronger.

Conference: Over/Under
AAC: 144-151
ACC: 157-212
Big 12: 112-138
Big East: 113-129
Big Ten: 152-180
PAC-12: 141-159
SEC: 165-174
Total: 984-1,143 (53.7%)

Taking it a step further, I listed every power conference team that currently is trending five games or more to the over or under. Needless to say, the ratio is pretty lopsided.

Team: Over/Under
South Carolina: 17-6
Utah: 17-8
Georgetown: 16-8
LSU: 15-9
Kansas: 15-10
Washington State: 15-10

Team: Over/Under
Arkansas: 7-18
Duke: 7-16
Villanova: 7-16
Georgia Tech: 8-18
Washington: 8-17
Florida: 8-17
Tulane: 8-16
Oklahoma: 9-17
Oklahoma State: 9-16
Michigan: 9-16
Texas Tech: 9-16
Colorado: 9-16
Oregon: 9-16
Wake Forest: 9-15
Nebraska: 9-15
Northwestern: 9-15
Penn State: 9-15
Vanderbilt: 9-14
Texas: 10-16
Syracuse: 10-15
Notre Dame: 10-15
Miami: 10-15
Michigan State: 10-15
Kentucky: 10-15

After a slow start to the season, I’ve enjoyed a very profitable stretch over the last six or seven weeks in large part because a majority of my wagers were placed on the under. That’s not to say I don’t play overs; considering all of the aforementioned data, there is without question some value out there. But of late, I need a very strong reason to play a power conference game over the total. The same can’t be said for an under. Despite all of the the data and sophistication of the betting markets, all that’s seemingly required to cash an under ticket these days is two defensive-minded teams.

Andrew Lange
MLB

With significant market influence, Andrew Lange has produced a decade-long 58% winning rate on over 750 selections in college basketball. Using a low volume, high return approach, Lange's results in the NFL have been equally impressive with a 61% mark and over +49 units of profit on a 1, 1.5, and 2-unit scale since 2012.