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College Basketball Betting: Upcoming Matchups Should Yield Unders in AAC


It’s time to revisit out AAC free throw and totals trend. Three weeks ago, we pointed out the uncharacteristically high amount of league-wide free throw attempts that aided in 19 of 28 games going over the the total. At the time, AAC games averaged 45.7 free throw attempts per game which was an increase of nearly 10 attempts per game compared to last season. Another way to look at it is five teams currently boast a conference-only free throw rate of 44 or higher with the league’s lowest rate at 26.2. Last season’s top free throw rate team was Memphis at 43.1 while the lowest, East Carolina, was at 21.2. Since our initial study we’ve seen some regression but not nearly as much as originally projected. Heading into tonight, AAC games have averaged 44 free throw attempts. And since that 19-9 O/U start, totals have been a dead even 13-13 O/U.

Moving forward, I still feel like the league’s free throw rate and thus rate of overs will continue to drop. With the exception of East Carolina and Tulane, the league is fairly balanced talent-wise yet we’ve seen only nine of 54 league games decided by four points or less. Cincinnati and Houston appear well on their way to NCAA Tournament berths but teams like UCF, Temple, Memphis, UConn and even USF are a few key wins away from being in the “bubble” discussion. Those types of games tend to produce one-possession, postseason-type environments. The most important factor though is that the league’s top defensive teams simply haven’t played many games against one another. The top four stop units in the AAC — USF, Houston, UCF, and Cincinnati — play each other a combined nine times down the stretch. I strongly recommend that bettors look for opportunities to play unders in those matchups.

AAC League Play O/U Results
Cincinnati 8-1 O/U
Temple 7-2 O/U
Tulsa 7-3 O/U
Wichita State 6-3 O/U
Memphis 6-3 O/U
South Florida 5-4 O/U
UConn 5-4 O/U
UCF 4-4 O/U
East Carolina 4-5 O/U
Houston 4-5 O/U
Tulane 4-5 O/U
SMU 3-6 O/U

Andrew Lange

With significant market influence, Andrew Lange has produced a decade-long 58% winning rate on over 750 selections in college basketball. Using a low volume, high return approach, Lange's results in the NFL have been equally impressive with a 61% mark and over +49 units of profit on a 1, 1.5, and 2-unit scale since 2012.