Understanding the College Basketball Betting Markets
Informed bettors can find value by tracking the market moves every day. It provides a great tool for knowing when to bet instead of guessing when to bet. If you believe the market will move you better get down as quick as you can. Conversely, if you disagree with the way the market is going to move you have the option to wait for better numbers. Identifying “market darlings” can lead you to teams that maybe you weren’t previously looking at. There also teams that the market seemingly hates. A closer look at those teams may direct your attention to the weaknesses that the market is picking up on. I use the last five games weighted more heavily than the last ten and I don’t go past 10 games when making my “market moves” numbers. Let’s take a look at some teams the market feels strongly about.
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE (8-14, 15-6 ATS)
The Matadors are the market’s current favorites and it’s easy to see why. Lamine Diane (pronounced JAH-NAY) is a Canadian-born redshirt freshman from Findlay Prep in Vegas. He has exploded onto the scene averaging 24 ppg and 10 rpg. His running mates Terrell Gomez and Rodney “Rocket” Henderson combine for 31 ppg. Don’t forget about the LOADED coaching staff of Mark Gottried, who may have struggled to match wits in the ACC with that gauntlet of hall of fame caliber coaches. However, the Big West is full of mediocre coaches among a few terrible ones. The loaded staff includes Jim Harrick, longtime assistant Jeff Dunlap and former NBA player Mo Williams. All coaches have ties to each other in some way. This is a dangerous team to anyone with the hopes of winning a Big West trophy.
DEPAUL (12-9, 11-9 ATS)
The market has moved toward DePaul in 11 straight contests. A balanced, experienced roster has provided the stability it takes to show improvement. While the Blue Demons have dropped off some defensively from last year, the offense has been the key. Four players average double figures, three of them are seniors. Dave Leitao has facilitated the improvement, especially in grabbing offensive rebounds while eliminating them on the defensive end. The Demons are enticing dogs going forward in a mediocre Big East.
PURDUE (16-6, 13-9 ATS)
Admittedly, I was slower to warm up to this Purdue team than the market. Tons of losses from an experienced group had me against them early. But Carsen Edwards just raises everyone’s play, and that’s the mark of a really good player. Matt Painter continues to impress as he takes lesser talent than most teams in the conference and has Purdue as a perennial threat. It seems this year that Purdue has a star and eight role players that fit perfectly into what they are trying to do. The emergence of freshman Trevion Williams recently has given the Boilers a strong 1-2 punch in the post with Matt Haarms. Haarms is a fiery competitor with a really high ceiling who has seemed to mature a bit this year. However, his antics are nothing but entertaining.
EAST TENNESSEE STATE (17-5, 16-6 ATS)
Steve Forbes is a ridiculous 69-42 against the spread in his four years at ETSU. 69-42!!!! In my preseason notes I wrote: “NOT THIS YEAR, lose 45 ppg, six seniors, mostly new, can’t replace”. WRONG. Although I was wrong early, I can adjust quickly. The Buccaneers are led by three completely new players that Forbes has transformed into quality DI players. The job he has done in Johnson City hasn’t received nearly the exposure it should. Until then, we can keep backing ETSU and they’ll keep covering. The market has caught on and yet the Bucs keep rolling anyway.
COASTAL CAROLINA (12-7, 13-6 ATS)
Inexplicably, the market hates Coastal Carolina. Just hates them. Cliff Ellis, if not for an injury-riddled season last year, would be heading toward his sixth straight 20-win season. In the last eight games the market has moved 16 points against the Chanticleers. That’s two points PER GAME. The market is wrong. In that span, they have gone 5-3 ATS including five straight covers. The public keeps underestimating this squad from Myrtle Beach, led by three returning senior starters. Don’t make the same mistake.
IDAHO (2-16, 4-14 ATS)
The Vandals are awful and the market knows it. Nine straight games have games Idaho has been faded by the bettors and they have not covered six straight games AND lost all by double digits. Following a 22-9 season last year, Don Verlin lost 53 ppg and is basically starting over. KenPom has them last in the conference in both offense and defense. Idaho is bet-against only.
EVANSVILLE (8-14, 12-10 ATS)
For thirteen straight games, the market has bet against Evansville. The Aces started out covering spreads at 11-5. But reality has set in and Walter McCarty’s bunch has gone 1-5 lately. McCarty will likely become another victim of college basketball’s infatuation with hiring former NBA coaches and players that fall flat on their face. Expect “EV” to be a continual fade for the balance of the season as we look for spots to cash against them, which should be numerous.
Micah Joe is 149-129 on the college basketball season, averaging three client selections per day. If you like volume you can purchase Micah’s plays here. Today he has a 2-unit 1st half total going along with five additional plays.