College Football Betting: Conference Championship Scenarios
With two weeks remaining in college football’s regular season, it’s time to start checking in on the various conference title game scenarios. Note that this will all change dramatically after this weekend’s game; a team playing for everything may have zero to play for in the season finale. Let’s take a look at where all of the “live” teams stand.
Cincinnati (9-1, 6-0) – In the driver’s seat of the East Division with needing to win just one of its final two games. They aren’t easy however with Temple at home (the Owls are still live) and Memphis on the road (the Tigers will likely need to a win for a shot to win the West).
UCF (7-3, 4-2) – Knights need to win out and have Cincinnati lose twice to have a shot.
Temple (7-3, 4-2) – Owls need to win out and have Cincinnati lose twice and UCF lose once.
If all three teams finish 6-2, the AAC will use some sort of computer ranking model to determine who wins. This would benefit UCF as the Knights currently rank ahead of Cincinnati in Sagarin’s ratings by one spot despite two more losses. The Bearcats would obviously fall further behind should they lose twice.
Memphis (9-1, 5-1) – The Tigers are in control thanks to wins over Navy and SMU. They close the season at USF and vs. Cincinnati.
Navy (7-2, 5-1) – The Midshipmen play host to SMU; the loser all but eliminated for contention.
SMU (9-1, 5-1) – Needs to beat Navy and Tulsa coupled with a Memphis loss.
Clemson (11-0, 8-0) – Clinched berth.
Virginia (7-3, 5-2) – A win over Virginia Tech (11/29) and the Cavaliers are in.
Pittsburgh (7-3, 4-2) – Pitt needs to beat Virginia Tech and Boston College as well as have Virginia Tech then beat Virginia.
Virginia Tech (7-3, 4-2) – The Hokies need to beat both Pitt and Virginia.
Should these teams all tie, Virginia currently has the tiebreaker edge. If Miami, who has been eliminated, also finishes with the same record as the above three teams, Virginia Tech wins the tiebreaker.
Oklahoma (9-1, 6-1) – The Sooners need one win over their last two games (TCU and Oklahoma State).
Baylor (9-1, 6-1) – The Bears need one with over their last two games (Texas and Kansas).
Three teams, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, and Texas, are all 4-3 and obviously need either Baylor or Oklahoma to go 0-2 to have a shot.
Big Ten East
Ohio State (10-0, 7-0) – It basically comes down to this week’s game vs. Penn State. If the the Buckeyes win, they are in.
Penn State (9-1, 6-1) – Should Penn State beat Ohio State and then beat Rutgers in the season finale, the Nittany Lions would be in.
Big Ten West
Minnesota (9-1, 6-1) – Even if Minnesota loses to Northwestern, the following week’s game vs. Wisconsin will likely serve as a play-in.
Wisconsin (8-2, 5-2) – The Badgers need to beat Purdue and then Minnesota and they are in.
Illinois (6-4, 4-3) – The Illini are technically still alive though need Minnesota to lose to Northwestern, Wisconsin lose to Purdue, and then Wisconsin beat Minnesota. They would then own the tiebreaker over the Badgers.
Marshall (7-3, 5-1) – The Thundering Herd beat Florida Atlantic earlier this year so they own the tiebreaker. Marshall closes at Charlotte and vs. FIU.
Florida Atlantic (7-3, 5-1) – The Owls need at least one Marshall loss and wins over UTSA and Southern Miss.
Louisiana Tech (8-2, 5-1) – Owns the tiebreaker over Southern Miss. Closes at UAB and vs. UTSA. As of Tuesday, J’mar Smith and Adrian Hardy are still suspended.
Southern Miss (7-3, 5-1) – Plays host to Western Kentucky and then travels to Florida Atlantic who may have nothing to play for should Marshall win over Charlotte this week.
UAB (7-3, 4-2) – Needs help though a win over Louisiana Tech this weekend goes a long ways.
Miami-Ohio (6-4, 5-1) – Clinched berth.
Western Michigan (7-4, 5-2) – The Broncos are in if they beat Northern Illinois this week.
Central Michigan (7-4, 5-2) – Needs WMU to lose to NIU and then a win over Toledo.
Ball State, Toledo, and Northern Illinois all sit at 3-3 and still technically live with a multitude of different scenarios. This weekend’s game are obviously must win and next week’s all depend on how WMU and CMU fare.
Mountain West Mountain
Boise State (9-1, 6-0) – Beat Utah State and the Broncos are in.
Air Force (8-2, 5-1) – The Falcons need to win out and have Boise lose twice.
Utah State (6-4, 5-1) – The Aggies need to beat Boise and have Air Force lose twice.
Mountain West East
San Diego State (8-2, 5-2) – Beat Hawaii and the Aztecs are in.
Hawaii (7-4, 4-3) – Beat San Diego State and the Rainbow Warriors are in.
Oregon (9-1, 7-0) – Clinched berth.
Utah (9-1, 6-1) – Win out — and the path is rather easy with games at Arizona and vs. Colorado.
USC (7-4, 6-2) – Remember, the Trojans beat the Utes earlier this season meaning if they beat UCLA and Utah slips up, USC will face Oregon.
Georgia (9-1, 6-1) – Clinched berth.
LSU (10-0, 6-0) – Win once, over Arkansas and Texas A&M, and the Tigers are in.
Alabama (9-1, 6-1) – Need two LSU losses and a win over Auburn in the Iron Bowl.
Sun Belt East
Appalachian State (9-1, 5-1) – Two wins over Texas State and Troy, or one with a Georgia Southern loss.
Georgia Southern (6-4, 4-2) – The Eagles do hold the tiebreaker over Appalachian State. GSU travels to Arkansas State and closes vs. Georgia State.
Sun Belt West
UL-Lafayette (8-2, 5-1) – Can clinch a berth with a win over Troy.
Arkansas State (6-4, 4-2) – Needs to win out (vs. GSU and USA) and ULL to lose twice.