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College Football Betting: Virginia Cavaliers OVER 7.5 Wins

CFB

I’m recommending a bet on the Virginia Cavaliers over their regular season win total of 7.5 (-150). My preseason analysis has the Cavs projected to win between 8-10 games. Let’s first take a look at their schedule. 

8/31: @ Pittsburgh
9/6: William & Mary
9/14: Florida State
9/21: Old Dominion
9/28: @ Notre Dame
10/11: @ Miami Florida
10/19: Duke
10/26: @ Louisville
11/2: @ North Carolina
11/9: Georgia Tech
11/23: Liberty
11/29: Virginia Tech

Week 1 we see Virginia a -2.5 favorite at Pittsburgh; a difficult but a very winnable game to open the season.  The Panthers were absolutely horrible passing the ball last year and brought in new offensive coordinator Mark Whipple to improve the quarterback play.  Virginia ranked 16th nationally against the pass last year and future NFL cornerback Bryce Hall is as tough a matchup as there gets in the secondary.  Whipple may improve Pitt’s offense long term, but not right off the bat against a top-tier defense. Again, tricky with a conference road game in Week 1 but UVA deserving of being the favorite. 

Below are the game I consider highly winnable. 

9/6: William & Mary
9/21: Old Dominion
10/19: Duke
10/26: @ Louisville
11/2: @ North Carolina
11/9: Georgia Tech
11/23: Liberty

Virginia is projected to be favored in all seven of those contests; vs. Duke and on the road vs. North Carolina are the only two that somewhat concern me. 

9/28: @ Notre Dame
10/11: @ Miami

Road games in South Bend and Coral Gables are obvious underdog spots thought I wouldn’t count out Virginia against a potentially suspect Miami team with a new head coach and a freshman starting quarterback. That said, we can realistically peg Virginia to be 8-2 or 7-3 out of that 10-game swatch.  

9/14: Florida State
11/29: Virginia Tech

Week 3’s home tilt vs. Florida State is obviously crucial if the Cavs are going to eclipse the 8-win barrier.  The Seminoles should be improved in Willie Taggart’s second year and the hiring of Kendal Briles was ideal for a struggling offense. That said, UVA will most likely be the favorite and Bronco Mendenhall has a huge edge over Taggart. The regular season finale is at home against rival Virginia Tech.  The Hokies have won 15straight in the series but I fully expect that to end this year.  Star quarterback Bryce Perkins and company will have this game circled after losing 34-31 in OT last year.  Barring any setbacks, it’s another game in which Virginia should be favored. Mendenhall is in his fourth year in Charlottesville and has completely turned the program around. He’s put together a defense that has the personnel and talent to rank as high as second in the ACC and among the top 15 nationally. They are also very live to win a wide open Coastal Division with no truly dominant team in their path. Underdogs in as few as only two games, Virginia has the potential to pop for 10 wins which makes over 7.5 a great wager. 

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Brandon Wittmeyer

Brandon Wittmeyer is a professional gambler in Las Vegas and has earned a living doing so for the last 15 years. He specializes in college football, college basketball, NFL and mixed martial arts. He also educates and advises others on many gambling topics including sports betting and poker. Brandon is featured occasionally on the Vegas Sports Information Network (VSIN) and you can hear him on podcasts regularly. He has written for Card Player magazine in the past about betting and poker strategies. His poker resume includes winning a World Series of Poker Bracelet and a WSOP Circuit Ring.