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College Football Betting: Week 1 Rematches Offer Clues


College football’s Week 1 is a far different handicap compared to the remainder of the season. What makes it unique is that lines have been up for much of the summer and most bets are made based on projections rather than results and accumulated data. A key to betting Week 1 is understanding where teams reside in the eyes of oddsmakers and bettors. One tool we can use in order to better understand the market’s perception of teams heading into Week 1 is to backtrack to any matchups that took place last year and analyze the point spread. Below is every Week 1 rematch. To simplify it, we provided the current market, last year’s results, and what the point spread would be based on nothing more than a change of venue and three points for home field advantage (note that home field advantage can be more or less than three points depending on team). A team’s status in the market can change significantly over the course of a calendar year. Cincinnati, for example, closed as a two-touchdown underdog at UCLA in Week 1 of last season. The Bearcats went on to win 11 games whereas UCLA went 3-9. The question is, did everything that occurred during that span warrant Cinci now being favored by -3? Some bettors don’t think so as UCLA was bet down from +4 to +3. In some cases, the venue hasn’t changed. For example, Colorado and Colorado State will once again play at Denver’s Mile High Stadium. Last season, the Buffaloes closed -7 and won easily, 45-13. For Week 1, we’ve seen Colorado jump from -10.5 to -12.5 meaning in the eyes of oddsmakers and bettors, the gap between the two teams has widened.

UCLA at Cincinnati
CRIS Opener: Cincinnati -4
CRIS Current: Cincinnati -3
2018’s Results: Cincinnati (+14) 27 at UCLA 17
Baseline Adjustment: UCLA -8

Georgia Tech at Clemson
CRIS Opener: Clemson -33
CRIS Current: Clemson -35.5
2018’s Results: Clemson (-16) 49 at Georgia Tech 21
Baseline Adjustment: Clemson -22

Utah at BYU
CRIS Opener: Utah -7
CRIS Current: Utah -5
2018’s Results: Utah (-10.5) 35 at BYU 27
Baseline Adjustment: Utah -4.5

Colorado vs. Colorado State
CRIS Opener: Colorado -10.5
CRIS Current: Colorado -12.5
2018’s Results: Colorado (-7) 45 vs. Colorado State 13
Baseline Adjustment: Same venue

East Carolina at NC State
CRIS Opener: NC State -20.5
CRIS Current: NC State -17.5
2018’s Results: NC State (-24.5) 58 vs. East Carolina 3
Baseline Adjustment: Same venue

Ball State at Indiana
CRIS Opener: Indiana -16.5
CRIS Current: Indiana -16.5
2018’s Results: Indiana (-15) 38 vs. Ball State 10
Baseline Adjustment: Same venue

UL-Lafayette at Mississippi State
CRIS Opener: Mississippi State -22.5
CRIS Current: Mississippi State -22.5
2018’s Results: Mississippi State (-34) 56 at UL-Lafayette 10
Baseline Adjustment: Mississippi State -31 (game @ New Orleans)

Virginia Tech at Boston College
CRIS Opener: Virginia Tech -2.5
CRIS Current: Virginia Tech -3
2018’s Results: Boston College (-2) 31 at Virginia Tech 21
Baseline Adjustment: Boston College -8

Georgia at Vanderbilt
CRIS Opener: Georgia -20
CRIS Current: Georgia -20.5
2018’s Results: Georgia (-26) 41 vs. Vanderbilt
Baseline Adjustment: Georgia -20

Virginia at Pittsburgh
CRIS Opener: Pittsburgh -1
CRIS Current: Virginia -3
2018’s Results: Pittsburgh (+7) 23 at Virginia 13
Baseline Adjustment: Virginia -1

Missouri at Wyoming
CRIS Opener: Missouri -15.5
CRIS Current: Missouri -17.5
2018’s Results: Missouri (-19) 40 vs. Wyoming 13
Baseline Adjustment: Missouri -13

Andrew Lange

With significant market influence, Andrew Lange has produced a decade-long 58% winning rate on over 750 selections in college basketball. Using a low volume, high return approach, Lange's results in the NFL have been equally impressive with a 61% mark and over +49 units of profit on a 1, 1.5, and 2-unit scale since 2012.