College Football Gambling: Four Teams to Bet Against
With each passing week, a college football team’s power rating becomes based more and more on their body of work rather than what was assigned during the preseason. And each year, a handful of teams get off to unforeseen starts that cause their power rating to shift dramatically. This in turn can create “buy low” and “sell high” situations moving forward. This week we’ll focus in on some potential “sell high” candidates that offer money making potential over the next few weeks.
Minnesota (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) – Most of the preseason coverage surrounding the Golden Gophers was centered around 2018 being a “rebuilding” year and yet here they are with three wins and three point spread covers. The storyline thus far has been ultra-conservative football, two weak opponents (New Mexico State, Miami-OH) and a coin flip win (Fresno State). With a freshman quarterback and three of their next four on the road, it’s about to get a lot more difficult for this squad. Always important to point out that head coach PJ Fleck is all about “the process” meaning he not only has an eye on the next play but also the next game and even 2019. If Maryland doesn’t lose to Temple last week, the Terps are laying close to a touchdown on Saturday. Instead, -2.5 is widely available.
Utah State (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) – This one is tricky because the Aggies look to be much improved and well deserving of a power rating bump. But, when you beat the spread by 16.5, 24, and 14.5 points in consecutive weeks, oddsmakers and bettors start to take notice. Last season, USU lost at Air Force 38-35 as +2.5 underdogs. This week, they opened -8.5 and were bet up to -10.5. Note too that the Falcons have won three straight in the series and are coming in off of a bye week.
Washington State (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) – What’s Thursday’s WSU-USC line had it been played Week 1? USC -14? Instead, the Trojans are as low as -3.5 (-105). A lot of that has to do with USC looking vastly overrated but there’s some respect for Wazzu’s start built into that point spread. This was supposed to be a down year in Pullman following the departure of multiple key players including quarterback Luke Falk. Mike Leach appears to have found a solid replacement in ECU transfer Gardner Minshew (71% completions, 144.5 QB Rating) but the competition (Wyoming, San Jose State, Eastern Washington) hasn’t been stiff. Pretty wild that Washington State was catching +4.5 at home in last year’s matchup vs. USC.
LSU (3-0, 2-1 ATS) – I don’t think many bettors are going to be suckered into thinking this year’s LSU team is anything different than what we’ve witnessed in the past. Outright wins against Miami and Auburn were great but the reality is LSU is +7 in turnover margin and starting quarterback Joe Burrow has completed 46% of his passes. And every media outlet on the planet is all of a sudden a believer in good ol’ boy Ed Orgeron – just like they were with Herm Edwards before Arizona State lost outright at San Diego State as road chalk last week. The next three games are prime bet against situations: vs. Louisiana Tech, vs. Ole Miss, and at Florida.
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