Eddie Walls’ College Football Week 10 Betting Recap
Early in the week we learned Toledo can win by 30 despite throwing four interceptions. Ball State matched that output throwing two themselves. In a sloppy game I learned Toledo has no pass offense and, if teams can limit that great run offense, they aren’t to be trusted.
Buffalo has one loss to a very complete Army team. They have a massive 6’8 quarterback and All-American wide receiver Anthony Johnson is no match for MAC secondaries. Lance Leipold has shown a great example of how a coach can adapt to his roster. Leipold is a legend in Wisconsin and went from a Craig Bohl system to the spread. Buffalo is among the best non-power 5 teams in the nation.
Northern Illinois scored 36 (hit the over by themselves) against a stout Akron defense. Head coach Rod Carey said it was his worst performance of the season postgame. That bothers me quite a bit. He is so caught up with his defensive mind that he’s forgotten that he has more experience on the offensive side of the ball than the defense. If he is upset by winning by ten on the road was he elated to lose by 23 at Florida State?
Ohio is going to score on you. The season high yards and points allowed by Cincinnati? That would be Ohio. Season high in yards allowed by Virginia? That is also Ohio. The Bearcats are figuring it out on defense. They are also becoming very Appalachian State-like, playing huge rotations to prepare for future seasons.
UCF hung 52 on Temple! Temple was top 10 in defense coming into Thursday. I’ll take Tua Tagovailoa over McKenzie Milton but that’s the only quarterback I’d prefer to have. There isn’t an AAC defense that can stop that offense. Weather and injuries are your only hope.
What do we know about Pitt? We know they can play 23-13 games and 54-45 games. That’s a dangerous combination. A team that was one year away now controls its own destiny to get a chance to lose by 35 to Clemson in the ACC championship game.
Western Kentucky made one of the worst hires in the last decade when they brought Mike Sanford Jr. to replace Jeff Brohm. He then made his own father the OC and made him the highest paid assistant. It’s rare for a coach to get fired after two seasons. Keeping him would be the worst decision that program could ever make. They defense dropped from second in the nation in 2016 to 96th and are being blown out weekly. Recruiting has been a disaster as well.
Maryland needs to run the ball. With all their controversies, people forgot that this a massively improved offense from DJ Durkin who was all about defense (without having the talent on that side of the ball to properly compete). If they hire anyone other than keeping Matt Canada full-time, they will be doomed for years to come. Recruiting was at an all-time high in 2017. It was almost all offensive weapons. They have the right guy.
Syracuse is winning games in November! Prior to Saturday Dino Babers was 0-8 in November. A healthy Orange team also has shown us a stout defense versus the run recently. Babers is an offensive genius but if can steadily produce defense the Orange will be great for years to come. Babers is a great story by the way. Not many coaches had to go through what he did to get there.
Just imagine if Nebraska hadn’t gifted Ohio state two touchdowns, one fumble and the worst kickoff in the history of football. Ohio State is in serious trouble. Offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson looks lost. Ohio State, and specifically Wilson and Urban Meyer, are run-based offenses and have changed their offense to fit J.K. Dobbins. It is really a weird situation and Meyer is once again dealing with health issues.
Whose meltdown was worse? Oklahoma State (who by the way has yet to win a game as a favorite, not cover but “win” excluding Kansas) or Texas A&M? Both teams seem scared to run the clock out and gave chances late in the fourth quarter and looked beyond lost. They played to lose the game. Well done. Not Jimbo Fisher’s first rodeo in end game mismanagement but Mike Gundy?
There are troubled waters in Georgia State. Sean Elliott has lost his identity. An Appalachian State product (11 years offensive line coach under Scott Satterfield) has abandoned the run and is throwing the ball 40 times a game while getting gashed on defense by anyone and everyone. His star recruit quarterback suffered a concussion and that season looks to be over for the Panthers who just last year defeated WKU in their first bowl.
Georgia Southern beat Appalachian State and promptly followed it up with the worst loss of the season on so many levels at UL-Monroe. They played from behind and the ball control option not only lost its identity after two possessions, but the defense struggled to stop ULM’s fast-paced attack.
Marshall used two quarterbacks and the offense gave up 21 points on turnovers in a 26-24 final. Just run the ball when you have that kind of defense. My favorite coach and program are finding losses in inexplicable ways.
Cincinnati is the most impressive team this season from a year or two away standpoint. They were the best non-power 5 recruiting base this offseason and now they are beating teams 42-0 and have a defense that is top five in rushing yards allowed. They also have a coach who will never leave unless the Ohio State job ever opens up. They are building a dynasty. Wish I’d known it was beginning this season and the freshman quarterback was going to evolve into this.
West Virginia is so fun. Who goes for two there?! I love the balls on Dana Holgorsen but his non-trust in his defense and field goal kicker are to be mentioned. Going for it constantly on fourth down instead of taking the points he would have avoided the two points to win theory.
Utah quarterback Tyler Huntley suffered a broken collarbone and is out for the year. Washington State missed field goals, fumbled in the end zone and looked mediocre versus a Cal team that is only tough on defense. Clay Helton is a defense-first head coach and is now the play caller. Washington tried it’s hardest to bleed a clock after establishing a 21-0 halftime lead and almost lost. Is Herm Edwards actually decent?! The PAC-12 is a mystery to this handicapper.
If you weren’t high as you should have been on Utah State or Fresno State, join the club. No two teams are more impressive in completely opposite ways. Fresno has a smothering defense in a season they replaced their entire defensive line. Utah State quarterback Jordan Love got hurt in Hawaii and they still put up 51 by the third quarter. Both coaches have changed philosophies in order to achieve this level of play.
Both have dates with Boise State, who struggled versus the likes of BYU and Air Force. It’s officially November and about to get fun and weird. Oh by the way, Clemson just scored again and LSU didn’t.
May all the hooks go in your favor.
Eddie Walls has delivered a remarkable 55-39 record (59%) in college football this season for +14.9 units of profit. Get Eddie’s Week 11 CFB card for $99.