Eddie Walls’ College Football Week 11 Betting Recap
Late on Saturday evening we learned San Diego State, a juggernaut in the Mountain West the past six years who leans on defense and an extremely conservative ball control offense, is capable of losing to anyone. The Aztecs have now played eight consecutive one possession games. Losing as 24-point favorites to UNLV at home was a surprise, but much like depending on turnover luck, end-game luck will eventually bite you.
It was a nice ride for Clay Helton of USC. He recruited his butt off for a guy with no experience doing so. He was miserable ATS during his tenure and the defensive minded coach was able to rely on future NFL players. When that disappeared, he appears to just be a .500 coach in a reload year. That’s not going to play in Trojan land.
Mike Bobo of Colorado State has serious health problems. He will also be unemployed in two weeks. CSU just built a new stadium and were on the rise. He took a team destined for 10 wins in 2017 and struggled to make a bowl. The next heir apparent for an SEC head coaching job showed he only can coach an offense. When you are as young as this Rams team is on both sides of the ball, shootouts aren’t possible. I hope for his family’s sake he takes some time off before becoming an SEC coordinator again.
Clemson showed its strengths again and, after a mediocre start to the season (Texas A&M and Syracuse), they are purely dominating great offenses. Not good offenses, but top 20 offenses that are averaging less than four yards per play.
Who is having a worst first year than Willie Taggart? Losses are piling up and they aren’t particularly close. I expect a huge recruiting class but it doesn’t matter how many four and five-star players they accumulate unless some of them are offensive linemen. This could be a two-year hire.
I am going to say what I think many are thinking. Tom Herman is pretty damn awful. He gets his teams up for big games (especially when they are an underdog) but no lead is safe when he’s ahead. He attempted, in every possible way, to lose that game at Texas Tech. His team is strictly a counter puncher. If a team wants to play slow he will call a slow game and a shootout works for him as well. He has a real quarterback and maybe the best defensive coordinator in the game in Todd Orlando. Eventually those wins as underdogs became less appealing when you fumble away leads as favorites so often.
How good is Temple? They have now found an offense that puts up huge points. They are extremely young on defense but prior to the past two weeks they were top 20 in run defense. Another team that lost a quarterback in Week 3 has found a gem to replace the starter. I think they can play with anyone.
We got the money with Miami but Richt has lost this team. He calls the weirdest offense I’ve ever seen. He has two incredible running backs, gets huge production from them and then calls three consecutive terrible pass plays and punts. The defense remains nasty but he’s going to lose a lot in April to the draft and I certainly won’t be laying any numbers with him. He has a NFL quarterback, the best defensive coordinator in the ACC, and a ton of experience in play.
The most ill-prepared head coach in the nation is Oregon’s Mario Cristobal. All of the bad coaches mentioned already have an excuse or two. Youth on both sides of the ball, freshman quarterback, injuries, etc. Cristobal has no excuse at all. He simply makes ridiculous mistakes and then abandons the run first chance he gets. How he got this job to begin with is a mystery to all.
Congrats to Louisiana Monroe for becoming bowl eligible. A reclamation project from a program on the brink of extinction can score a ton of points but also has had the largest jump in defensive efficiency in one year that I can recall.
If you are a great football team, Old Dominion will push you and maybe beat you. If you are a mediocre, run-of-the-mill program, ODU will likely let you blow them out and score 35 in the process. That’s fun and profitable for those keeping score at home.
Bob Davie, you can’t have a scandal, suspend yourself and not go to a bowl with your best recruiting class from two and three years ago. I’ll miss your lack of defensive acumen and the markets inability to believe it.
Kentucky, you were 12th in the nation and then you got hammered by Georgia and then Tennessee. And did lose looking Charlotte-esque on offense. This once feel good story is looking pretty weird now.
Purdue might be very distracted. Jeff Brohm is three weeks away from being one of the highest paid coaches in college football. A complete lack of effort at Minnesota is not something I’ve ever seen from him before. He’s done unreal things with very little this year but wouldn’t it be something if Kevin Sumlin reaches a bowl and Brohm doesn’t? College football!
Northwestern is your Big Ten West champ. Let me repeat. Northwestern! The team that lost its main weapon on offense, started three freshmen on the offensive line, and had a quarterback coming off a major knee surgery. Did I mention they lost their career rushing leader to the NFL? Pat Fitzgerald had offers from the NFL before they threw money nobody could compete with. I still can’t wrap my head around it. Their regular season win total was five. They lost by four to Michigan by the way, and they won by just three at Rutgers. Either the Big Ten is severely mediocre or the one guy who thinks way outside of the box (if Jeff Brohm leaves) in the conference has figured it out. He can only offer around 15 scholarships a season by the way.
There was some criticism of Mike Gundy for going for two to end the game. I thought it was fantastic but why he trusted his better running than passing quarterback is beyond me. Regardless, the trend in the Big XII is to take the points. My lord is it a mess of a conference.
Feleipe Franks just hushed his own crowd and I believe Bobby Petrino just called Gus Malzahn. Both are convinced they are much better than they really are. May all the hooks go your way.
With another big weekend, Eddie Walls has moved to 63-42 59% on the season for +20.6 units! He’s one of the top college football handicappers in the nation. Get on board with Eddie’s Week 12 CFB card for $99 this week.