Type to search

Eddie Walls’ College Football Week 2 Betting Recap

CFB

I’ll start off by stating the obvious: Texas is probably not back, neither is Florida State, Miami, Nebraska, or Tennessee. Some of these shocking results we’ve seen have me numb after only two weeks. 

ACC

Florida State obviously has some conditioning issues. They have a top-five offense right away (hello, Kendall Briles) but in two weeks after playing very good and even sided football in the first half, the Seminoles got absolutely crushed in the second half. UL-Monroe is a very mediocre Sun Belt team that managed to post 300 yards in the second half. FSU’s defense is either incapable of playing the speed the offensive tempo is creating for four quarters or this is just a bad team. We find out this week when they face the best defense they might see all season in Virginia. 
 
It is very telling to me that Miami’s Manny Diaz dipped into the transfer portal at multiple positions he had success coaching last year. The sample size is small but Diaz looks lost at end game management. Miami had almost 500 yards of offense vs. North Carolina and still failed to score 28 points. His offense is improved but the scoring has not. Turnover luck is an actual thing and if the Hurricanes are unable to force them, they might be in serious trouble. 
 
Pittsburgh made a serious offensive coordinator hire in Mark Whipple (UMass). He installed a pass-heavy offense and while there has been questions about Kenny Pickett’s arm I love what I see out of their defense. They held Ohio lifeless on offense and UVA also struggled to gain any traction. It’s early but if they can find even a little more offense they will offer some upside. 
 
Let’s just call it what it is, Syracuse. Liberty and Maryland don’t have much in the way of defense meaning 24 and 20 points is not going to cut it when you run the offense Dino Babers specializes in. The Orange can pretend they are improved on defense with better recruiting but if your 4-star quarterback is as bad as Tommy DeVito has looked thus far they might be sitting home in December. 
 
Don’t look now but the biggest jump in my ACC power numbers is North Carolina. They were going to be massively improved this year regardless due to continuity on defense and run production but frosh quarterback Sam Howell is legit and they have a defensive coordinator in Jay Bateman (Army DC) that makes offensive production stats wither. It’s early but UNC made a weird head coach hire and made the most impressive coordinator hires and inked a big recruiting class. They could become UNC of 2015 (11-3) quickly.  
 

PAC-12

Something very weird is happening. When we think PAC-12 we think high flying offenses and shootouts. It’s clear their are only three teams with this approach; maybe four if you count Utah’s seemingly increased tempo.

Washington got into a dog fight with California. Peterson has lost his way the last two seasons. He has become known as a pass defense specialist and DB recruiter. Somewhere lost in this is that Peterson was brought to UW from Boise State where his offenses always outproduced his defenses. In the last two seasons it’s become clear he is running a Wisconsin-type of offense. His defense is insanely young and he refuses to play with any tempo and remains completely predictable.  I originally thought Washington was the only team that could beat Utah who has maybe the best overall run/pass rush unit in the country outside of Michigan State.

Colorado picked off maybe the worst coaching performance in college football on Saturday. A huge swing game for me saw Scott Frost try to sit on a 17-point lead with predictable offensive calls only to get burned. And Colorado head coach Mel Tucker might end up being a decent hire. Nebraska’s defense quit time and time again and committed foolish penalty after penalty. The Buffs are very young and could grow and gel to make some noise — though I said this same thing last year before they lost seven straight PAC-12 games.

Stanford has amazed me for years that they’re capable of winning games with so little offense and limited recruiting. I think after two weeks it’s clear that Shaw is what his offensive line allows him to be on offense. His pass defense might have the best cornerback in the PAC-12 in Paulson Adebo but both lines are young as can be. The Cardinal might be in serious trouble in 2019 if they have to trade punches.

Say what we want about USC’s Clay Helton and AD Lynn Swann but they have beat two teams I do not think they would have last season. Offensive coordinator Graham Harrell has a head coach job waiting for him and while I’m not sold on the Trojan defense they are producing on offense at a clip that has to be scary to their future schedule. It’s so odd for Helton to have success while having actually nothing to do with it.

UCLA allowed the most passing yards to a San Diego State offense in five seasons. I sincerely have no idea what Chip Kelly is doing. The offensive guru has yet to eclipse 300 yards of offense in his first games of 2019. His quarterback looks lost and they have no running attack. This is a experienced offense for gods sake, you’re supposed to be a offensive guru. It’s clear to me that he is comfortable losing as well. He is emotionless in these losses as if they’re expected. Scary thing is UCLA matched up versus SDSU better than anyone on their schedule. Scary times in Westwood.

Big XII

Texas played it’s best game last night. I’m not kidding. That’s not a bad Longhorns team but they are woefully young on defense. However, the fact Tom Herman could open up the offense and score against the NFL-ish defense of LSU in the manner he did makes me think that Texas is very much live in the Big XII.

Kansas hired Les Miles…to lose to Coastal Carolina. At least the offense is a mirror of his last year at LSU.

West Virginia made a real good hire in Neal Brown but it’s clear losing four NFL players on offense and inheriting a defense with a lot of history of failure leaves the Mountaineers in midst of a rebuilding situation. I am most troubled by Brown’s lack of offensive production. Twenty-one points combined and only 170 total yards against a bad Missouri defense is a terrible sign even in the early going.

Big Ten

The Big Ten has four teams that have flat out been dominant. I’m not sold on Wisconsin’s opponents thus far but zero points allowed and it’s obvious they are out for statements.

Ohio State has a legit defense, period. It will be interesting to see if Ryan Day can maintain the conservative style they have shown with Fields being more of a runner. They completely dominated a good Cincinnati offense.

Michigan State has the best defense in the nation. They only need some offense and after last season having 10 different offensive starters hurt this could be a year where even a formidable offense has them in the playoff talk.

Penn State also has a serious defense. They haven’t been tested on offense yet and that changes a little this Saturday (vs. Pitt). We will learn a lot in the next month if James Franklin can find the weapons to be in the top tier.

Jim Harbaugh has some issues. Either play Dylan McCafrey or go with Shea Patterson but the play calling when they switch is predictable and I’m not sold on their run game. The defense is young; they are a wild card for me.

Minnesota’s PJ Fleck is a offensive mind but there have been times when the offense stalls and he loses his footing. If he plans on taking the next step he has to get better production from both sides of the ball. You can’t get into somewhat of a second half shootout with a pedestrian Fresno State offense.

Iowa looks like the same Iowa but with a lack of playmakers at the skill positions I wonder if at some point they run into a good offense and won’t have the firepower to trade blows.

SEC

I was hard on the SEC in Week 1, but outside of Kentucky, all teams bounced back.

I personally cannot believe Arkansas is losing without an offense. Chad Morris was brought in to reinvigorate the offense; you simply can’t be bad and boring. It’s a rule:)

Until next week. Best of luck to all as always, Eddie.

Eddie Walls
CFB

Specializes in small conference games and finds value in both sides and totals. Professional gambler who always gets the best of the numbers. Can give you a full strength and weakness report on all 130 college football teams, coaches, coordinators and players over a large sample size.