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Eddie Walls’ College Football Week 5 Betting Recap

CFB

Well, I survived September in the black; always a welcomed sight! I find September the hardest task of all as many handicappers feel the opposite. 

Week 5 had a plethora of noteworthy teams that we can look at. Let’s start with the weekday games. 

Memphis has a extremely inefficient offense that relies on explosive plays. They have weapons to do just that and a massively improved defense with the addition of defensive coordinator Adam Spencer from Marshall. A team that was initially built to win the high-flying shootout can win any type of game in 2019. 
 
When was the last time Virginia Tech was this bad? Many seem to be asking though forgetting they needed to schedule a late season win in order to slip into the postseason in 2018. Justin Fuentes changed the offense and in doing so the culture of Beamer Ball. He’s out of time and I have always been shocked by his disdain for a run offense. 
 
Remember when Maryland was ranked? Yeah me neither.  
 
Cal lost quarterback Chase Garber late versus Arizona State. He’s hardly amazing but coupled with Cal’s defense, he doesn’t need to be. Justin Wilcox is a special head coach but needs to win games 24-17. Devin Modster stepped in for Garber and the lone takeaway was, let’s hope Garber recovers quickly.
 
Matt Wells is a great defensive head coach who found a golden ticket in offensive coordinator Dave Yost whose Air Raid system made loose change of the Mountain West. Texas Tech had a bottom 105 defense the previous six years and Wells’ mission was to fix that immediately. But when we see him punting 4th-and-1 from Oklahoma’s 39-yard line down 21 it’s obvious he’s coaching for future weeks and possibly years. 
 
It took the “powerful” offense of Northwestern for Wisconsin to allow a first half score. Remember a month ago when I said Wisconsin’s defense was average this year? Yeah me neither. 
 
Buffalo quarterback Matt Myers is an opposing defense’s best friend. He has allowed one defensive touchdown via a turnover in three of five starts. Guess who’s been on under for a ton every week? 
 
BYU needs to find a new head coach immediately. Kalani Sitake doesn’t understand game planning. Before I sound like a bitter man with a losing ticket I can explain. You have a coach who can’t recognize a size differential of 70 pounds on the offensive line and calls a total of 20 run plays because the boosters called him too conservative two years ago…it’s not brain surgery.
 
Speaking of coaches who struggle with their identities. Vanderbilt’s Derek Mason plays the easiest schedule of any SEC team from here on out but after yesterday I am pretty sure he is cooked. Vandy has three sure-fire NFL players but unfortunately for them they play offense which Mason really despises. Vanderbilt has the worst pass defense of any power 5 school this year but Mason stays running clock with even the slimmest of leads. And when he trails? You guessed it, still attempting to run clock. 
 
Clemson, you have a problem and it’s your quarterback. No preseason all-american quarterback has looked more average than Trevor Lawrence. Wait. Clemson, I just looked over your remaining schedule…you have no problems. 
 
I still hate Lane Kiffin but he still has enough talent to run away with C-USA this season. The entire conference is down with the exception of Southern Miss and Marshall and both have looked mediocre at times this season. 
 
It was so much fun watching UL-Lafayette head coach Billy Napier…said me next year. 
 
Stanford’s David Shaw played some pretty weak offense and allowed Oregon State’s Jake Luton (50% career passing) to look like John Elway. Shaw had his defense playing prevent and watched a three-touchdown lead disappear. Remember when Stanford was a power house? Me neither.
 
Utah State head coach Gary Andersen let quarterback Jordan Love have fun for two games but now we are starting to see the ultra-conservative Andersen. So far so good but the Aggies could have very easily lost both of their MWC games.
UNLV allowed a record amount of yards to Wyoming who was missing three offensive linemen and its star running back. I checked and they do hold practices at UNLV but apparently none of the defensive variety.
Houston won its first game without D’Eric King and did so scoring big points with a quarterback who was among the worst I’d ever seen last season. Maybe Holgorsen wasn’t the problem. Perhaps the Cougars’ star quarterback and receiver wanted a Kendall Briles’ system and their attitudes held the team back? Or maybe North Texas, who lost its all-conference wide receiver to injury, is hot trash. We will find out soon.
I always forget why Mike Leach is not at a bigger and better job and then I see in his post game presser he called his team stupid, lazy, and fat along with a lot of expletives. That is a morale booster for sure. While I like Leach and think he is a genius he has to remember he calls 16 total plays and if they fail it’s on him just as much as the 19 year olds running them.
Thanks as always and don’t ever let a 37-yard touchdown pass when a team is down 35 with four seconds left and you laid -34 ruin your day. Life is too short!
As always, good luck! – Eddie
Eddie Walls

Specializes in small conference games and finds value in both sides and totals. Professional gambler who always gets the best of the numbers. Can give you a full strength and weakness report on all 130 college football teams, coaches, coordinators and players over a large sample size.