Eddie Walls’ College Football Week 9 Betting Recap
On Tuesday the Sun Belt kicked things off and we learned that Troy has the defense that was advertised all offseason. That defense was on display in bits and pieces throughout the season but we also learned that backup quarterback Sawyer Smith is a highly inefficient passer. South Alabama has very little in the way of pass defense and when I see 160 yards passing, it’s a bit of a red flag even in a convincing win.
Will Grier the Heisman candidate? Oh yeah, he’s the real deal we forgot for so long. Baylor may not have a pass defense but Grier plays in the Big 12. Expect some gaudy numbers from here on out.
Ball State was a great story to start the year pushing Notre Dame by playing up-tempo and relying on a youth movement on defense. Injuries plagued them last season. Bad luck for Mike Nue but it’s beginning to look a lot like last year.
Western Michigan has a great offense and showed us what we saw back in Week 1 versus a good Syracuse team. The ability to score and get chunk plays only matters if you can make them stand up with some defense. On the other hand, did Toledo finally find just enough defense or was this the ceiling for that sieve of a run defense? We will find out quickly.
When is the last time a Bud Foster defense wasn’t top 25? I really don’t know. When was the last time a Virginia Tech defense wasn’t top 75? Before I was born I’m sure. Justin Fuente is a master offensive play caller and Foster is a master defensive coordinator but at some point, I think they should consider taking a MAC/Sunbelt team approach and pick a system. Sounds crazy right? Well Fuente got this job by winning a lot of 50-42 type games. Foster has been there two decades winning a lot of 14-10 games.
Appalachian State was not exposed as some people on Twitter were clamoring about. They lost their quarterback in the second quarter and were forced to become one dimensional. Tough loss but let’s not discredit Georgia Southern. They had 17 returning starters and that team went through two years of hell. Still think a coach doesn’t make a difference? That system is legit as it gets. They’re now favorites to win the Sunbelt when their regular season win total was 5.5. Kudos War Eagles.
Leaving Lane Kiffin alone this week… kind of like the Bahamas Bowl that will more than likely pass on that resume.
Colorado State boosters and fans are calling for the firing of Mike Bobo. His Rams lost their sixth game and are all but done with postseason aspirations for the season. It’s mostly unjust in this particular instance in my opinion. The 130th youngest team in the nation simply chose offense (Bobo was a former quarterback and offensive coordinator at Georgia) and attempted to win shootouts instead of depending on the youthful defense. I learned that CSU can put a horrific beat on you if you are capable of finding a great total. I also learned that for Unders with him as a head coach, there has to be better equity to be had elsewhere. Ok I knew that but I just like to gripe.
Utah has scored 40 points in four consecutive games and has to have the largest margin of victory of any Power 5 team in the nation in that span. I learned Kyle Whittingham is capable of change and that he’s going to lose every coordinator to the SEC if he isn’t careful.
I took Boston College without hesitation on Tuesday last week and gave it out on the podcast. AJ Dillon is one of the best running backs I’ve ever seen and a true difference maker. However, my confidence really had to do with Miami’s lack of offense. BC has a so-so defense. I was counting on Miami not being able to hit that big play. I don’t care how good Mark Richt recruits. He is completely lost as a play caller currently. They are now 5-5 since their 10-0 start in 2017. If he doesn’t swallow his pride and find an OC to match the brilliance of his DC Manny Diaz, they’re not to be trusted.
Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence will struggle on the road. He is only a freshman after all. Umm no. He is a once in a decade find from what I’m seeing. Why is everyone so ignorant that they try to establish a run offense against Clemson. The only teams who have tested them came out throwing and never stopped. That’s not just a potential NFL defensive line. That is four potential first rounders in April.
Kudos to a well-established Frank Betti of Las Vegas who contacted me early Saturday to pinpoint the moneyline wins he was about to collect in Lansing, MI. He was downright giddy 30 minutes prior to kickoff. Purdue has almost no chance in his estimate. They weren’t Washington State or a Vandy who had experienced success against a top 10 opponent and the backup quarterback for Michigan State couldn’t be worse than Brian Lewerke. He nailed it. What I learned? Bet more on others fantastic opinions and don’t let my ego keep my pockets ignorant.
Wisconsin’s Jonathon Taylor…remember when he was the Heisman front runner? Yeah neither do I. The offensive line for Wisconsin is among the most experienced and made every coveted list in the nation.
I don’t think there’s been a worse coached and prepared team from week to week in the nation. If you have a young defense perhaps think slightly outside the box on offense and play with some pace? Maybe don’t try a field goal in the fourth quarter (missed) when down 14 with around 10 minutes left.
Louisville is straight up dead. They are a shell of a football team, but we knew that. We didn’t know Bobby Petrino was capable of laughing at his quarterback when he threw a pick. I hate coaches who humiliate their kids. Find your money fading U of L is my advice. He doesn’t want to coach there and they don’t care…why would they?
Virginia is in beast mode. Bronco Mendenhall deserves some Coach of the Year praise. He has a first-year quarterback and lost his excellent linebackers to the NFL and graduation. They can play whatever style the other team struggles with and were supposed to be two years away.
Charlotte should have fired Brad Lambert. Well, they look awfully brilliant now. They are on the brink of a bowl just a year removed from a defeated season. They lost their quarterback but are leaning on a dominant run defense and now backup quarterback Evan Shirreffs from Miami (remember him, he’s 34 but only junior…I kid). They are the best comeback story of the year for me personally. Oh, and they’re really undervalued in the betting markets.
It got weird in the best possible way yesterday. You didn’t turn off that Oregon State game, did you? In all seriousness, that Oregon State comeback win is huge. Recruiting, and a dead team, has life again. We also saw maybe glimpses of a great hire in the offensive minded Jonathon Smith. Has anyone noticed what Washington’s offense looks like since he left?
Pittsburgh and Duke covered the Over in the first half and two defensive-minded head coaches said the heck with it and Pat Narduzzi apparently borrowed Matt Canada for the week. It got fun. I learned I know less about Pitt than ever but I love me a shootout! I also know that if Narduzzi finds that offense next year they might be capable of 10 wins again. They play Virginia next week. Good luck with figuring that one out.
Penn State quarterback Trace McSorley is a tough bastard; playing with a gimpy knee and being highly inefficient, but held on to win. These Lions aren’t great but imagine if they didn’t have him. No seriously. Think about it because he takes too many hits and he is not going to last the season.
I told you USF was fraudulent. However, if Houston relies solely on the offense to keep pace, I’m not certain they’re great either. I don’t trust any team that cares so little about special teams.
Georgia is not a team I am high on. We cashed some tickets yesterday, but if you are depending on third-and-long completions continuously, it is only a matter of time. Remember the turnover chain? Same concept in my mind.
Hey San Jose State!!! Nothing to add, just happy for Brett Brennan who has no pass defense but is a better head coach with only 18 games of experience than Tony Sanchez after 15 years. Sorry UNLV fans, it’s true.
Chris Peterson at Washington – just take the SEC job already. It’s gotten paint drying gross.
Until next week and may the hooks all go in your favor.
Eddie Walls has delivered a remarkable 50-34 record (60%) in college football this season for +14.4 units of profit. Get on Eddie’s Week 10 CFB card for a discounted price of only $39.