Eddie Walls’ Tips on How to Bet College Football in November
Every week I discuss college football games with a select group of bettors. It amazes me how many complain about a supposed lack of value left on the board in November. This is crazy! There may be a lack of “gifts” and your closing line value goes down some but to this bettor, there are larger edges in November than in late August and early September. You have tremendous amounts of information that as recent as two weeks ago weren’t overly relevant. Now there are scenarios and elements that you have to apply to each game that you may have not had to concern yourself with as much through the season.
Totals – Before we can make a total of any kind we have to check weather. If it’s 30 degrees in Nebraska with 17 miles per hour winds, those overs you were taking with so much confidence back in early October need to be reevaluated. I recommend taking a closer looks at each teams’ strengths and weaknesses and then take your base total and decide where you wanna go with your original number. A pass-first offense with a weak kicker/punter will be the death of any over bettor’s bankroll without studying the weather this time of year.
Injury reports – They grow every week throughout a season. This time of year any major injury to a guy who has started nine or 10 games is going to be a huge blow to the unit he plays on. Look for injuries that would not be so obvious. Centers, kickers, punters, safeties. Duke lost All-America middle linebacker Joe Giles-Harris two weeks ago and allowed 300+ rushing yards its next two games. You have quarterbacks making their first career starts due to injury in pivotal spots in Weeks 10, 11 and 12. This is an optimal “bet against” situation. Pressure burst pipes and normally a green quarterback thrust into a starting role coming from the practice field cannot adapt to the speed of the game in his first start.
Hot seat coaches – This is easily the most discussed topic among beat writers and makes for good gossip on Twitter and social media. Don’t think coaches don’t read it. When Randy Edsall starts a press conference by saying just fire me already you might not want to have any money on UConn. This is not the NFL or NBA. Kids will quit on a coach. Finding a Buffalo as an ATS darling early on in the season is one thing. Finding a “dead” team late in the year can be the gift that keeps on giving. If a coach knows he’s gone chances are he’s not overly concerned with week-to-week preparations.
Teams playing out the stretch – You might want to take a closer look before placing a large amount of trust (and money) into that ugly dog that was so kind to you the last couple weeks. Believe it or not there is a humongous difference between 3-6 and 3-7 in the world of college football. No kid arrives on campus with the hope of going home for Christmas break. Also coaches will start preparing for future seasons and will roll out large rotations and try out new starters. I’ve lost more than a few games where multiple quarterbacks played in the last home game. Get him some reps…ugh! There is also a reverse home field advantage at play here. A lack of crowd whom cascades every negative play with boos. That can certainly work against a team. Florida State, Louisville, Auburn, UConn, Central Michigan are prime examples.
Statement teams – People often overlook the teams who need to win, keep winning and do so as convincingly as possible. If you haven’t noticed, I’m not a big Alabama or Clemson type of bettor. It’s not by design. I simply rarely find value in the number. However there is some hidden value in my opinion in backing teams with a realistic chance of making the four-team playoffs. You will notice Clemson hung 77 points on Louisville and Michigan ran it up on Penn State. Every game in which they have a chance to make a statement they’re worth consideration past what your power ratings might tell you.
Programs I’m dying to bet on – Many bettors don’t put enough emphasis on how important post season play is to many small conference schools. TCU doesn’t care if it wins six games and plays in the Potato Bowl. The season was a failure and the bowl invitation is just a reminder. On the other hand many fail to realize what a bowl game means to a Western Michigan, UL-Monroe, or Tulane. These smaller programs can build a practice facility, hire a new recruiter, new locker rooms, weight rooms, etc. Texas State doesn’t get new pads every year, UTEP can’t afford to offer a kicker scholarship…you get the idea. Find your 4- and 5-win teams on the cusp. In the process you’ll find very well prepared teams, full of motivation, and players willing to play through injuries they couldn’t most of the season. I want my money on that type of effort and it will reward me most of the time.
My free play of the week is Miami-Georgia Tech UNDER 55.5. Instead of discussing how we don’t know who Miami will play at quarterback and how Manny Diaz owns all option attacks, I think you’ll learn and profit much more if you apply some of the things discussed above.
Eddie Walls has been BettorIQ’s top college football handicapper this season with a documented record of 55-39 59% +14.9 units. Get all of Week 11’s selections for $99 or get Eddie’s 2-unit BEST BET for $29 exclusively at BettorIQ.