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2019 Major League Baseball Regular Season Betting Recap

MLB

Another MLB regular season is in the books. The two biggest themes this year were home runs (again) and the art of tanking. Those were directly correlated to what occurred from a betting perspective; the Minnesota Twins led MLB in home runs and finished second in profits (+21.9 units) while the Detroit Tigers won 47 games and lost a league-worst -42 units. Let’s take a look back and some of the other noteworthy betting results.

The Oakland edged out Minnesota for the title of Most Profitable Team. The A’s finished +22.2 and provided the perfect blue print for future profile betting; be a good but not great small market team with Mike Fiers, Brett Anderson and Chris Bassitt accounting for over half of your teams’ starts. Atlanta and the Los Angeles Dodger both notched just over +16 units.

Detroit’s -42.1 units was historically bad, especially when you consider Baltimore won seven more games but lost “only” -19.5 units. Boston deserves to be mentioned as well; the Red Sox finished three games over .500 but managed to lose -28.2 units.

From a totals perspective, the Red Sox were the over kings at 90-67-5 over/under while Cincinnati was the league’s strongest under team at 61-93-8 over/under.

Despite the plethora of home runs, totals league-wide finished almost dead even at 1147-1159-111 O/U.

In terms of trends, big favorites were once again an excellent bet. -200 or more favorites netted over +100 units (+8.7 ROI). Since 2017, the -200 or more profile is a ridiculous +250 units. The ROI on underdogs during that span was -7.4%.

As for regular season win totals, the Twins were MLB’s biggest overachiever; lined 84 and won 101 games. The Braves, Dodgers, Rays, and A’s all surpassed their win totals by double-digits. Despite being lined for 67 wins, the Tigers went under their total by a whopping 20 games. Joining Detroit in the -10 or more category were the Red Sox, Rockies, Royals, and Angels.

Bettors will no doubt see win totals start to reflect the Haves and Have Nots nature of MLB next year. Four of the five teams lined at 90 or more wins went over their season win total while all three teams lined below 70 wins went under — by a combined total of 38.5 games!

Team – Reg. Season Win Total, Record (Difference)
Arizona Diamondbacks – 77, 85-77 (+8)
Atlanta Braves – 84, 97-65 (+13)
Baltimore Orioles – 59, 54-108 (-5)
Boston Red Sox – 95.5, 84-78 (-11.5)
Chicago Cubs – 89, 84-78 (-5)
Chicago White Sox – 74.5, 27-89 (-2)
Cincinnati Reds – 77, 75-87 (-2)
Cleveland Indians – 91.5, 93-69 (+1.5)
Colorado Rockies – 82, 71-91 (-11)
Detroit Tigers – 67, 47-114 (-20)
Houston Astros – 97.5, 107-55 (+9.5)
Kansas City Royals – 69, 59-103 (-10)
Los Angeles Angels – 83.5, 72-90 (-11.5)
Los Angeles Dodgers – 95, 106-56 (+11)
Miami Marlins – 65.5, 57-105 (-8.5)
Milwaukee Brewers – 83.5, 89-73 (+5.5)
Minnesota Twins – 84, 101-61 (+17)
New York Mets – 83.5, 86-76 (+2.5)
New York Yankees – 94.5, 103-61 (+8.5)
Oakland A’s – 83, 97-65 (+14)
Philadelphia Phillies – 83, 81-81 (-2)
Pittsburgh Pirates – 78.5, 69-93 (-9.5)
San Diego Padres – 77.5, 70-92 (-7.5)
San Francisco Giants – 73, 77-85 (+4)
Seattle Mariners – 74.5, 68-94 (-6.5)
St. Louis Cardinals – 88.5 91-71 (+2.5)
Tampa Bay Rays – 85.5, 96-66 (+10.5)
Texas Rangers – 70.5, 78-84 (+7.5)
Toronto Blue Jays – 76.5, 67-95 (-9.5)
Washington Nationals – 88.5, 93-69 (+4.5)